We've previewed each team over the last couple of days. Now it's time to pour the stat projections into the hopper and see how the player rankings shake out. If you're drafting for just this game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks like the No. 1 pick.
Even if his points total (in PPR) didn't figure to be a little bit higher than either quarterback or running back, the expected gap between him and the No. 2 at his position would be greater than with the No. 1 and 2 at those positions. But in this case, there are fewer questions with him. Both defenses could cause problems for the opposing quarterbacks and running backs. With Seattle's No. 1 wideout, pretty much nobody has slowed him down all year.
Some of the assumptions I'm making:
Both quarterbacks are on the injury report. Sam Darnold has an oblique injury he's been dealing with the past couple of weeks and was limited in practice last week. But since he threw for 346 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Rams, I'm going to go ahead and assume it's not a problem.
Drake Maye has a shoulder injury. That one is trickier since the Patriots actually listed him as questionable, and it's possible the injury limited him at Denver. He was 10 of 21 for just 86 yards that day. But he's had two weeks to rest it, there was also a weather and opposing offense struggling component to his lesser numbers, and his "questionable" designation is just to appease the NFL rules and betting concerns. There is zero chance that Joshua Dobbs starts the Super Bowl, and zero chance that Maye won't be on heavy pain medication or whatever is needed to enable him to throw the ball about as normal against Seattle. That being said, I'd like to see him practice fully this week, and if he doesn't by Friday, I will be a little wary as far as betting passing overs on New England's quarterback. But for now, the assumption is he's fine.
I'm expecting Seattle No. 2 tight end Elijah Arroyo, out the past month with a knee injury, to play. No one should be considering Arroyo and even starter AJ Barner has done very little the past few weeks with Arroyo out. But it's even more reason not to use Seattle's starter if you have a choice.
Rankings are below, showing Standard, PPR and TD-only numbers (sorted by PPR). I didn't include the Defenses, because the column headings wouldn't work and there are only two of them. But I have Seattle ranked higher in any scoring system I can think of. They have a better pass rush facing a more sack-prone quarterback. They have a hot returner in Rashid Shaheed, giving them the special teams edge. And I expect Seattle to win. I would give New England a slight edge for takeaways, if we ranked defenses solely on that component, but it's pretty minimal; both teams have potential there.
On Friday, I'll post about some of the prop bets I'm considering or placing for this game. The one I've already placed is a two-bet parlay with Seattle giving the points (4.5) and the under (45.5).
| SUPER BOWL LX PLAYER RANKINGS | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Tm | Player | Pass | Rec | Run | PaTD | ReTD | RuTD | Std | PPR | TD |
| WR | SEA | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 0 | 101 | 1 | .00 | .62 | .00 | 13.9 | 21.3 | 3.7 |
| QB | NE | Drake Maye | 223 | 0 | 26 | 1.19 | .00 | .23 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 6.2 |
| QB | SEA | Sam Darnold | 238 | 0 | 5 | 1.53 | .00 | .03 | 18.7 | 18.7 | 6.3 |
| RB | SEA | Kenneth Walker | 0 | 29 | 69 | .00 | .10 | .72 | 14.7 | 17.9 | 4.9 |
| RB | NE | Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 23 | 57 | .00 | .12 | .42 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 3.3 |
| WR | NE | Stefon Diggs | 0 | 52 | 0 | .00 | .20 | .00 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 1.2 |
| TE | NE | Hunter Henry | 0 | 43 | 0 | .00 | .30 | .00 | 6.1 | 9.4 | 1.8 |
| TE | SEA | AJ Barner | 0 | 31 | 2 | .00 | .28 | .08 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 2.2 |
| PK | SEA | Jason Myers | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | .00 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| WR | SEA | Cooper Kupp | 0 | 36 | 0 | .00 | .23 | .00 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 1.4 |
| PK | NE | Andres Borregales | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .00 | .00 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| WR | NE | Mack Hollins | 0 | 32 | 0 | .00 | .13 | .00 | 3.9 | 6.5 | .8 |
| WR | NE | Kayshon Boutte | 0 | 27 | 0 | .00 | .20 | .00 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 1.2 |
| WR | SEA | Rashid Shaheed | 0 | 17 | 5 | .00 | .16 | .03 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 1.5 |
| RB | NE | TreVeyon Henderson | 0 | 5 | 19 | .00 | .02 | .23 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 |
| RB | SEA | George Holani | 0 | 10 | 10 | .00 | .05 | .10 | 2.8 | 4.2 | .9 |
| TE | NE | Austin Hooper | 0 | 16 | 0 | .00 | .08 | .00 | 2.1 | 3.3 | .5 |
| WR | NE | DeMario Douglas | 0 | 14 | 1 | .00 | .05 | .00 | 1.8 | 2.7 | .3 |
| WR | NE | Kyle Williams | 0 | 9 | 1 | .00 | .05 | .00 | 1.3 | 2.0 | .3 |
| WR | SEA | Jake Bobo | 0 | 7 | 0 | .00 | .05 | .00 | 1.0 | 1.7 | .3 |
| TE | SEA | Elijah Arroyo | 0 | 7 | 0 | .00 | .05 | .00 | 1.0 | 1.7 | .3 |
| TE | NE | Jack Westover | 0 | 4 | 0 | .00 | .02 | .00 | 0.5 | .9 | .1 |
| RB | SEA | Robbie Ouzts | 0 | 0 | 3 | .00 | .00 | .02 | 0.4 | .5 | .1 |
| WR | NE | Efton Chism | 0 | 2 | 0 | .00 | .01 | .00 | 0.3 | .5 | .1 |
| RB | NE | D'Ernest Johnson | 0 | 0 | 1 | .00 | .00 | .01 | 0.2 | .3 | .1 |
| TE | SEA | Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | .00 | .01 | .00 | 0.1 | .3 | .0 |
| WR | SEA | Dareke Young | 0 | 1 | 0 | .00 | .01 | .00 | 0.1 | .2 | .0 |
| QB | SEA | Drew Lock | 2 | 0 | 0 | .02 | .00 | .00 | 0.2 | .2 | .1 |
| QB | NE | Joshua Dobbs | 2 | 0 | 0 | .01 | .00 | .00 | 0.2 | .2 | .0 |
--Andy Richardson
