There was a story over the weekend that the Denver Broncos would probably be exploring multiple other options before bringing back J.K. Dobbins. I was a little surprised initially, but looking into it more closely, I shouldn't have been.
My first thought was OK, true, Dobbins has an extensive injury history. As was shown again this season, when he got injured in Week 10 and wound up done for the year. Dobbins' rookie season of 2020 was the only year in his career that he didn't miss at least 4 games. The last five years, he's appeared in just 32 of a potential 85 games.
What was a little more surprising was discovering that even while healthy this year he wasn't that great. He fared OK in NFL terms as two-down starting running backs go, but a lesser fantasy choice even before getting hurt.
Table shows the per-game numbers for running backs the first half of last season, sorted by PPR scoring. All running back who started at least 5 games are shown. (I also included Denver's other running back, RJ Harvey.)
Because he had almost no passing game role and wasn't a great scorer, Dobbins didn't even crack the top 20 at the position the first half of the year. He was just barely better than Harvey.
| RUNNING BACKS, FIRST HALF OF 2025 PER GAME (5+) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR |
| Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 9 | 66.2 | 6.8 | 69.6 | .89 | 25.7 |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 9 | 99.4 | 3.0 | 24.2 | 1.59 | 24.9 |
| Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 8 | 74.4 | 5.1 | 57.9 | .50 | 21.4 |
| Josh Jacobs, G.B. | 8 | 66.8 | 2.9 | 25.5 | 1.25 | 19.6 |
| DeVon Achane, Mia. | 9 | 67.3 | 4.8 | 30.4 | .78 | 19.2 |
| James Cook, Buff. | 8 | 108.4 | 1.6 | 12.5 | .88 | 19.0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 8 | 68.9 | 3.6 | 24.6 | .88 | 18.2 |
| Cam Skattebo, NYG | 7 | 59.0 | 3.1 | 27.9 | 1.05 | 18.1 |
| Javonte Williams, Dall. | 9 | 79.6 | 2.8 | 10.3 | 1.00 | 17.8 |
| Kyren Williams, LAR | 8 | 73.3 | 2.5 | 20.8 | .75 | 16.4 |
| D'Andre Swift, Chi. | 7 | 66.3 | 2.6 | 27.4 | .71 | 16.2 |
| Saquon Barkley, Phi. | 8 | 64.9 | 3.0 | 19.9 | .75 | 16.0 |
| Omarion Hampton, LAC | 5 | 62.8 | 4.0 | 27.2 | .40 | 15.4 |
| Ashton Jeanty, L.V. | 8 | 60.9 | 2.5 | 16.6 | .75 | 14.8 |
| Quinshon Judkins, Cle. | 6 | 70.8 | 1.5 | 8.3 | .83 | 14.4 |
| Jaylen Warren, Pitt. | 7 | 57.7 | 3.0 | 27.6 | .43 | 14.1 |
| Derrick Henry, Balt. | 8 | 78.6 | .8 | 5.8 | .75 | 13.7 |
| Breece Hall, NYJ | 8 | 72.6 | 2.6 | 22.3 | .25 | 13.6 |
| Travis Etienne, Jac. | 8 | 74.8 | 2.4 | 13.9 | .38 | 13.5 |
| Chase Brown, Cin. | 9 | 46.7 | 3.7 | 22.3 | .37 | 12.8 |
| Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 6 | 47.0 | 2.5 | 19.7 | .50 | 12.2 |
| J.K. Dobbins, Den. | 9 | 77.2 | 1.1 | 3.3 | .44 | 11.8 |
| RJ Harvey, Den. | 9 | 22.8 | 2.6 | 18.4 | .67 | 10.7 |
| Kenneth Walker, Sea. | 8 | 59.0 | 1.3 | 10.0 | .38 | 10.4 |
| Tony Pollard, Ten. | 9 | 53.3 | 2.1 | 15.9 | .22 | 10.4 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 8 | 34.9 | 2.0 | 21.1 | .42 | 10.1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Was. | 5 | 53.6 | 1.0 | 9.6 | .40 | 9.7 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 9 | 41.9 | 3.1 | 16.7 | .11 | 9.6 |
| Isiah Pacheco, K.C. | 8 | 41.1 | 1.4 | 5.4 | .25 | 7.5 |
Ultimately it's the injuries that will hold his market down. The Ravens moved on, the Chargers did after just a year, and most likely the Broncos will too. Denver seems unlikely to hand the keys to the backfield to Harvey (I wonder if they're regretting not keeping Javonte Williams around), so they'll be adding someone, either free agency or the draft.
Dobbins will end up starting somewhere, perhaps, but just like last year, he'll probably be a later signing, by a team that misses out on its top targets. Life of an NFL running back who has a hard time staying on the field.
--Andy Richardson
