Free agency is approaching, and one of the guys poised to sign for big money right away is Malik Willis. He played really well in his fill-in work for the Packers the last two years, and there are a lot of teams who need a quarterback.
Willis started three games for Green Bay, and exceeded expectations. In 2024 he averaged just 162 passing yards in his two starts, with a touchdown in each, but also averaged 57 rushing yards, with another touchdown, and won both games. Last year he was on the wrong end of a high-scoring loss to Baltimore, but had a big game: 18 of 21 for 288 yards and a touchdown passing, and 60 yards and 2 TDs rushing. The previous week, replacing an injured Love late, he completed 9 of 11 for 121 yards and a score and ran for 44 more.
It's the rushing production that has to catch the eye of fantasy teams. Among all quarterbacks to start at least 3 games the last two seasons, Willis' average of 58 rushing yards is better than anyone. That's helped him average 26 fantasy points in typical scoring systems. (Table sorted by rushing yards, cropped at 15 yards per game.)
| QBS PER START, 2024-2025 (MINIMUM 15 RUSHING YARDS/G) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Pass | Run | Pts | TD |
| Malik Willis | 3 | 204.0 | 58.0 | 26.0 | 2.00 |
| Jayden Daniels | 24 | 201.3 | 48.7 | 22.8 | 1.71 |
| Anthony Richardson | 11 | 164.9 | 45.4 | 19.1 | 1.27 |
| Lamar Jackson | 30 | 224.0 | 42.1 | 25.0 | 2.27 |
| Justin Fields | 15 | 157.7 | 40.9 | 19.4 | 1.40 |
| Jaxson Dart | 12 | 189.3 | 40.6 | 23.2 | 2.00 |
| Tyler Huntley | 7 | 160.3 | 35.4 | 16.1 | 1.00 |
| Jalen Hurts | 31 | 197.6 | 33.9 | 23.1 | 2.10 |
| Kyler Murray | 22 | 218.8 | 33.9 | 21.0 | 1.50 |
| Josh Allen | 34 | 217.6 | 32.6 | 25.3 | 2.35 |
| Marcus Mariota | 8 | 200.3 | 32.0 | 19.2 | 1.38 |
| Drake Maye | 29 | 229.2 | 29.6 | 22.3 | 1.79 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | 149.3 | 27.8 | 15.7 | 1.25 |
| Caleb Williams | 34 | 220.1 | 25.8 | 20.1 | 1.50 |
| Justin Herbert | 33 | 230.2 | 24.4 | 20.9 | 1.61 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 30 | 250.5 | 24.3 | 22.9 | 1.83 |
| Drew Lock | 5 | 212.4 | 24.0 | 20.6 | 1.60 |
| Bo Nix | 34 | 226.6 | 23.1 | 22.0 | 1.88 |
| Spencer Rattler | 14 | 197.7 | 22.4 | 15.3 | .79 |
| Baker Mayfield | 34 | 241.0 | 22.4 | 23.0 | 2.09 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 7 | 193.3 | 21.9 | 16.7 | 1.14 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 164.0 | 21.1 | 14.3 | .86 |
| Brock Purdy | 24 | 251.3 | 19.6 | 23.3 | 2.00 |
| Tyler Shough | 9 | 250.7 | 19.3 | 21.1 | 1.44 |
| Daniel Jones | 23 | 224.8 | 18.7 | 19.7 | 1.48 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 10 | 163.2 | 18.1 | 16.8 | 1.50 |
| Russell Wilson | 14 | 232.9 | 17.8 | 19.7 | 1.50 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 27 | 224.1 | 17.7 | 21.9 | 1.93 |
| Bryce Young | 28 | 191.4 | 16.3 | 18.4 | 1.64 |
| Mason Rudolph | 6 | 222.8 | 15.7 | 19.4 | 1.50 |
| Will Levis | 12 | 174.3 | 15.3 | 14.7 | 1.08 |
My concern in NFL terms is that outside of that very small sample set (propped up by a really leaky Ravens pass defense last year), Willis hasn't shown a ton as a passer. As a rookie he started three game for Tennessee without throwing for even 100 yards in any of them. He didn't throw for 200 in either of his 2024 starts for the Packers. Players get better, and certainly Willis seemed to in Green Bay's offense.
But will that successfully translate to Miami, Cleveland or one of the other teams looking for a starting quarterback? Considering the kind of money it's going to take to sign him, that team had better hope so. Are we sure that Willis can credibly operate a passing game as a regular starter? Or will he be more like Justin Fields.
I took a look at all the quarterbacks who, like Willis, have been drafted in the third round in the last 20 years. To this point, there's just a single huge hit: Russell Wilson, who fell to the third round strictly because he's short.
Table shows the best seasons from all the other third-round quarterbacks in the last 20 years. Just one other who had a top-15 season: Jacoby Brissett, who just did it (Year 10 of his career). Nick Foles won a Super Bowl. And?
| THIRD-ROUND QBS, 2006-2025 (BEST SEASONS) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | Rk |
| 2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 3983 | 34 | 11 | 586 | 3 | 1 |
| 2025 | Jacoby Brissett, Ari. | 12 | 3366 | 23 | 8 | 168 | 1 | 14 |
| 2013 | Nick Foles, Phil. | 10 | 2891 | 27 | 2 | 221 | 3 | 17 |
| 2022 | Davis Mills, Hou. | 15 | 3118 | 17 | 15 | 108 | 2 | 19 |
| 2011 | Colt McCoy, Cle. | 13 | 2733 | 14 | 11 | 212 | 0 | 22 |
| 2023 | Desmond Ridder, Atl. | 13 | 2836 | 12 | 12 | 193 | 5 | 22 |
| 2008 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 14 | 2699 | 11 | 10 | 117 | 3 | 22 |
| 2013 | Mike Glennon, T.B. | 13 | 2608 | 19 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 25 |
| 2013 | Terrelle Pryor, Oak. | 9 | 1798 | 7 | 11 | 576 | 2 | 27 |
| 2019 | Mason Rudolph, Pitt. | 8 | 1765 | 13 | 9 | 42 | 0 | 30 |
| 2007 | Trent Edwards, Buff. | 9 | 1630 | 7 | 8 | 49 | 0 | 30 |
| 2016 | Cody Kessler, Cle. | 8 | 1380 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 32 |
| 2017 | C.J. Beathard, S.F. | 5 | 1430 | 4 | 6 | 136 | 3 | 33 |
| 2015 | Ryan Mallett, 2TM | 6 | 1336 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 1 | 36 |
| 2014 | Charlie Whitehurst, Ten. | 5 | 1326 | 7 | 2 | 90 | 0 | 37 |
| 2007 | Brodie Croyle, K.C. | 6 | 1227 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 39 |
| 2025 | Dillon Gabriel, Cle. | 6 | 937 | 7 | 2 | 86 | 0 | 40 |
| 2024 | Malik Willis, G.B. | 2 | 550 | 3 | 0 | 138 | 1 | 44 |
| 2019 | Will Grier, Car. | 2 | 228 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 56 |
| 2017 | Sean Mannion, LAR | 1 | 185 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 57 |
I hope Willis ends up with a good offensive coaching staff that can get the kind of work out of him that Matt LaFleur and company were able to get the past two seasons. Because there aren't a lot of success stories to come out of that round lately. Would be nice to see Willis hit, but far from certain.
--Andy Richardson
