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Mendoza will hear the drums early

Ignore talk of rookie not starting immediately

News items involving the Raiders this morning. First is they released Geno Smith (no surprise). Second is that an Athletic writer believes their preference is not to start Fernando Mendoza immediately.

A bookkeeping note: the Raiders haven't actually confirmed that they're going to draft the Indiana quarterback No. 1 overall. But we're all adults here and can speak rationally, so maybe we can agree that they will in fact be selecting the Heisman Trophy and National Champion quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick.

And as for any speculation that he won't be an immediate starter? In a word, Yuh.

First-round quarterbacks usually start as rookies. If they don't, it's because they get injured (J.J. McCarthy), have a Hall of Fame quarterback in front of them (Jordan Love), or because their team gave another veteran quarterback $100 million a few weeks earlier (Kirk Cousins -- yes, it's still impossible to believe that actually happened).

And if they're drafted in the top half of the first round, it's a virtual certainty.

Table shows all quarterbacks drafted in the top 15 picks in the last 15 years. There have been 40 of them. I've sorted them by number of starts their rookie seasons. Table shows rookie-year stats and rankings in fantasy leagues (4-point TD passes).

QBS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 15 PICKS, 2011-2025
PkYearPlayerGSPassTDRunTDRk
12025Cam Ward, Ten.17316915159222
12024Caleb Williams, Chi.17354120489016
12021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.17364112334222
22024Jayden Daniels, Was.1735682589165
122024Bo Nix, Den.1737752943048
152021Mac Jones, N.E.17380122129017
12023Bryce Young, Car.16287711253023
12019Kyler Murray, Ari.1637222054446
12015Jameis Winston, T.B.16404222213613
12012Andrew Luck, Ind.1643742325559
12011Cam Newton, Car.16405121706143
22016Carson Wentz, Phil.16378216150222
82012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.16329412211224
22023C.J. Stroud, Hou.15410823167313
22012Robert Griffin, Was.15320020815710
62020Justin Herbert, LAC1543363123459
102011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.1422141298027
12018Baker Mayfield, Cle.13372527131017
22021Zach Wilson, NYJ1323349185430
32018Sam Darnold, NYJ13286517138124
32014Blake Bortles, Jac.13290811419021
102018Josh Rosen, Ari.13227811138032
22017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.1221937248229
22015Marcus Mariota, Ten.12281819252222
32024Drake Maye, N.E.12227615421222
62019Daniel Jones, NYG12302724279220
72018Josh Allen, Buff.11207410631822
12020Joe Burrow, Cin.10268813142325
112021Justin Fields, Chi.1018707420231
122011Christian Ponder, Min.10185313219028
52020Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.9181411109334
12016Jared Goff, LAR71089516137
152019Dwayne Haskins, Was.713657101033
122017Deshaun Watson, Hou.6169919269227
42023Anthony Richardson, Ind.45773136443
82024Michael Penix, Atl.3775311145
32021Trey Lance, S.F.26035168140
102017Patrick Mahomes, K.C.1284010053
82011Jake Locker, Ten.0542456144
102024J.J. McCarthy, Min.00000-

Seventy-five percent (30 of 40) started at least 10 games as rookies. Twenty-two of those guys started 13-plus (mostly 16-game seasons).

Of the 10 guys who didn't start 10 games, five were early starters who got hurt. One was drafted to a team that had a Pro Bowl starter, while another was paying Cousins. That leaves 3 quarterbacks out of 40 -- Jake Locker, Jared Goff, and Dwayne Haskins -- and two of those guys each started 7 games.

It doesn't matter which veteran quarterback the Raiders bring in. Mendoza will be starting, and probably in Week 1. Not an earth-shattering projection, but please ignore any lip service to the contrary.

--Andy Richardson

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