News items involving the Raiders this morning. First is they released Geno Smith (no surprise). Second is that an Athletic writer believes their preference is not to start Fernando Mendoza immediately.
A bookkeeping note: the Raiders haven't actually confirmed that they're going to draft the Indiana quarterback No. 1 overall. But we're all adults here and can speak rationally, so maybe we can agree that they will in fact be selecting the Heisman Trophy and National Champion quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick.
And as for any speculation that he won't be an immediate starter? In a word, Yuh.
First-round quarterbacks usually start as rookies. If they don't, it's because they get injured (J.J. McCarthy), have a Hall of Fame quarterback in front of them (Jordan Love), or because their team gave another veteran quarterback $100 million a few weeks earlier (Kirk Cousins -- yes, it's still impossible to believe that actually happened).
And if they're drafted in the top half of the first round, it's a virtual certainty.
Table shows all quarterbacks drafted in the top 15 picks in the last 15 years. There have been 40 of them. I've sorted them by number of starts their rookie seasons. Table shows rookie-year stats and rankings in fantasy leagues (4-point TD passes).
| QBS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 15 PICKS, 2011-2025 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Run | TD | Rk |
| 1 | 2025 | Cam Ward, Ten. | 17 | 3169 | 15 | 159 | 2 | 22 |
| 1 | 2024 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | 17 | 3541 | 20 | 489 | 0 | 16 |
| 1 | 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 3641 | 12 | 334 | 2 | 22 |
| 2 | 2024 | Jayden Daniels, Was. | 17 | 3568 | 25 | 891 | 6 | 5 |
| 12 | 2024 | Bo Nix, Den. | 17 | 3775 | 29 | 430 | 4 | 8 |
| 15 | 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 17 | 3801 | 22 | 129 | 0 | 17 |
| 1 | 2023 | Bryce Young, Car. | 16 | 2877 | 11 | 253 | 0 | 23 |
| 1 | 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ari. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 6 |
| 1 | 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 4042 | 22 | 213 | 6 | 13 |
| 1 | 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 4374 | 23 | 255 | 5 | 9 |
| 1 | 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 4051 | 21 | 706 | 14 | 3 |
| 2 | 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 3782 | 16 | 150 | 2 | 22 |
| 8 | 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 3294 | 12 | 211 | 2 | 24 |
| 2 | 2023 | C.J. Stroud, Hou. | 15 | 4108 | 23 | 167 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 3200 | 20 | 815 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 4336 | 31 | 234 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 2214 | 12 | 98 | 0 | 27 |
| 1 | 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 13 | 3725 | 27 | 131 | 0 | 17 |
| 2 | 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 13 | 2334 | 9 | 185 | 4 | 30 |
| 3 | 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 2865 | 17 | 138 | 1 | 24 |
| 3 | 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 2908 | 11 | 419 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ari. | 13 | 2278 | 11 | 138 | 0 | 32 |
| 2 | 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 2193 | 7 | 248 | 2 | 29 |
| 2 | 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 2818 | 19 | 252 | 2 | 22 |
| 3 | 2024 | Drake Maye, N.E. | 12 | 2276 | 15 | 421 | 2 | 22 |
| 6 | 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 3027 | 24 | 279 | 2 | 20 |
| 7 | 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 2074 | 10 | 631 | 8 | 22 |
| 1 | 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 2688 | 13 | 142 | 3 | 25 |
| 11 | 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 10 | 1870 | 7 | 420 | 2 | 31 |
| 12 | 2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 10 | 1853 | 13 | 219 | 0 | 28 |
| 5 | 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 9 | 1814 | 11 | 109 | 3 | 34 |
| 1 | 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 7 | 1089 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 37 |
| 15 | 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 7 | 1365 | 7 | 101 | 0 | 33 |
| 12 | 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 6 | 1699 | 19 | 269 | 2 | 27 |
| 4 | 2023 | Anthony Richardson, Ind. | 4 | 577 | 3 | 136 | 4 | 43 |
| 8 | 2024 | Michael Penix, Atl. | 3 | 775 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 45 |
| 3 | 2021 | Trey Lance, S.F. | 2 | 603 | 5 | 168 | 1 | 40 |
| 10 | 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 1 | 284 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 53 |
| 8 | 2011 | Jake Locker, Ten. | 0 | 542 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 44 |
| 10 | 2024 | J.J. McCarthy, Min. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Seventy-five percent (30 of 40) started at least 10 games as rookies. Twenty-two of those guys started 13-plus (mostly 16-game seasons).
Of the 10 guys who didn't start 10 games, five were early starters who got hurt. One was drafted to a team that had a Pro Bowl starter, while another was paying Cousins. That leaves 3 quarterbacks out of 40 -- Jake Locker, Jared Goff, and Dwayne Haskins -- and two of those guys each started 7 games.
It doesn't matter which veteran quarterback the Raiders bring in. Mendoza will be starting, and probably in Week 1. Not an earth-shattering projection, but please ignore any lip service to the contrary.
--Andy Richardson

