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Strength of schedule adjustments

Kansas City, Buffalo, Houston lose favorable matchups

When the schedule comes out, I always start by looking at Week 18. Who’s missing out, with a soft opponent coming after the fantasy season is over? And who’s ducking a tough defense.

The Houston, Seattle and Denver defenses scare me. So fortuitous, I think, for the Titans, Rams and Chargers getting matchups against those defenses in Week 18.

The Cardinals, Dolphins and Raiders, on the other hand, have perhaps the worst defenses. So if I’m holding players on the 49ers, Patriots or Kansas City, I’m disappointed, missing on those opportunities. (At least in my league – we’re done before Week 18).

Strictly off the numbers (using last year’s wins and losses), the Saints, Browns and Colts project to play the easiest schedules after the Week 18 games are removed. Kansas City, Chicago and Buffalo project to play the hardest schedules.

Three teams went 14-3 last year. Teams skipping out of those games appear in bold. There are four teams, on the other hand, who miss out on games against teams that went 3-14 last year. I’ve got them tagged with black dots. That omission helps push Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City down to playing the hardest schedule (for our purposes).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-17)
TeamWLTPctWk 18
New Orleans1171541.4328-9-0
Cleveland1181540.4346-11-0
Indianapolis1211501.44713-4-0
Cincinnati1251470.4605-12-0
Detroit1251461.4619-7-1
Tennessee1251461.46112-5-0
Atlanta1261451.4658-9-0
Baltimore1281431.47210-7-0
NY Giants1321382.48911-6-0
Jacksonville1331381.4918-9-0
• Houston1331372.4933-14-0
Philadelphia1341362.4964-13-0
Pittsburgh1351370.4968-9-0
LA Rams1341362.49614-3-0
Tampa Bay1351352.5006-11-0
Seattle1361351.50212-5-0
Denver1371350.50411-6-0
LA Chargers1371350.50414-3-0
Dallas1371341.5065-12-0
Washington1371341.5067-9-1
NY Jets1371341.50612-5-0
Minnesota1381322.51111-6-0
• San Francisco1401311.5173-14-0
Carolina1421291.5248-9-0
Miami1421291.52414-3-0
Arizona1431281.52812-5-0
New England1461251.5397-10-0
Green Bay1461251.5399-8-0
Las Vegas1471250.5406-11-0
• Buffalo1491221.5503-14-0
Chicago1491212.5519-8-0
• Kansas City1521200.5593-14-0

Some prefer to work off points rather than wins, given the nature of fantasy football. Going that route, there are five teams that will miss out on games against opponents who allowed at least 28 points per week last year – Houston, Carolina, Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo. (Note that the Bills and Texans are the only teams getting shorted on both charts). These teams are tagged with black dots.

Four offenses, on the other hand, get the benefit of avoiding defenses that last year allowed fewer than 19 points per week – Dallas, Jacksonville, Washington, Chicago. Those teams are in bold.

Houston and New Orleans using all stats have the 3rd- and 4th-easiest schedules. Remove Week 18, and they drop to 9th and 10th.

POINTS ALLOWED (Weeks 1-17)
TeamAvgWk 18
Philadelphia24.123.6
• Cleveland24.028.7
Indianapolis24.024.4
NY Giants23.923.4
• Detroit23.728.9
Seattle23.724.3
Baltimore23.722.4
Tennessee23.621.5
New Orleans23.522.3
• Houston23.530.1
Washington23.317.4
Tampa Bay23.221.2
Minnesota23.219.8
Atlanta23.124.2
Dallas23.118.8
Jacksonville23.118.3
Cincinnati23.024.9
Pittsburgh23.020.0
Kansas City23.019.3
Miami22.825.4
LA Rams22.720.4
Green Bay22.619.6
San Francisco22.519.1
New England22.525.8
• Carolina22.429.6
NY Jets22.421.8
Chicago22.317.2
Arizona22.322.5
Las Vegas22.224.2
• Buffalo22.128.1
Denver22.026.5
LA Chargers21.922.8

—Ian Allan

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