Josh Jacobs was arrested over the weekend, charged with domestic abuse that includes a couple of felonies. It's early and Jacobs' representatives "vehemently deny" any wrongdoing, but it's a situation that's going to have to play out.
This isn't a legal site but things look kind of bad, some sort of suspension for Green Bay's starting running back a possibility (at a minimum). Last year's backup running back, Emanuel Wilson, signed with Seattle in free agency, so the Packers might be looking at a starter from Chris Brooks or former third-rounder MarShawn Lloyd.
Brooks interests me, since he's been effective with his minimal opportunities, both in Miami as a rookie (5.6 yards per attempt) and his first year in Green Bay (5.1). Last year, as the No. 3, he didn't do much, carrying 27 times for 106 yards (3.9). But he's been effective in the passing game the past two seasons (24 receptions on 30 targets), and it caught my eye even before the Jacobs charges that the Packers made a point of retaining Brooks in free agency while letting Wilson walk. I had him on my sleepers list; he's big (6-1, 219) and has looked like he knows what he's doing.
Lloyd was the early draft pick, and he put up decent numbers at both USCs -- 11 TDs as a main back for South Carolina one year, and 1,052 total yards and 9 TDs for Southern California the next. But he's been unable to get much traction in the NFL, with injuries wiping out most of his rookie season and all of his second. (The picture is from last year's training camp.)
I took a look at previous third-round picks who weren't factors as rookies. How did they fare in Years 2 and 3?
Since 2000, there have been a total of 39 running backs selected in the third round who like Lloyd did very little as rookies (I defined very little as under 500 total yards). A couple were fullbacks, but I left them in the below table. Four of those players, like Lloyd, were drafted the past two years, so we don't have their Year 3 numbers yet. One was Blake Corum, who many are optimistic about this year. Another is Trey Benson, whose path to relevance this season would seem to be on another roster rather than Arizona. (I wonder if Green Bay will be interested.) Kaleb Johnson, who had a very quiet rookie season in Pittsburgh, and at best will be the No. 3 this year. And Lloyd.
Most of the best of those players did put up strong numbers in Year 2. Brian Westbrook, James Conner and a couple of Patriots backs. As for players who, like Lloyd, did nothing for two season and broke out with good numbers in Year 3? I don't see anyone that fits the profile.
Table sorted by total yards in Year 3.
| THIRD-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000- (FIRST THREE SEASONS) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run(1) | Rec(1) | TD(1) | Run(2) | Rec(2) | TD(2) | Run(3) | Rec(3) | TD(3) |
| 2002 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 193 | 86 | 0 | 613 | 332 | 13 | 812 | 703 | 9 |
| 2016 | Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 179 | 46 | 2 | 644 | 239 | 4 | 535 | 477 | 9 |
| 2003 | Chris Brown, Tenn. | 221 | 61 | 0 | 1067 | 147 | 6 | 851 | 327 | 7 |
| 2015 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 392 | 14 | 1 | 520 | 421 | 11 | 628 | 299 | 8 |
| 2017 | James Conner, Pitt. | 144 | 0 | 0 | 973 | 497 | 13 | 464 | 251 | 7 |
| 2005 | Vernand Morency, Hou. | 184 | 87 | 2 | 434 | 118 | 2 | 108 | 199 | 0 |
| 2014 | Charles Sims, T.B. | 185 | 190 | 1 | 529 | 561 | 4 | 149 | 190 | 2 |
| 2019 | Darrell Henderson, LAR | 147 | 37 | 0 | 624 | 159 | 6 | 688 | 176 | 8 |
| 2015 | Ty Montgomery, G.B. | 14 | 136 | 2 | 457 | 348 | 3 | 273 | 173 | 4 |
| 2008 | Jacob Hester, S.D. | 95 | 91 | 2 | 74 | 24 | 0 | 60 | 145 | 1 |
| 2012 | Ronnie Hillman, Den. | 330 | 62 | 1 | 218 | 119 | 1 | 434 | 139 | 4 |
| 2019 | Damien Harris, N.E. | 12 | 0 | 0 | 691 | 52 | 2 | 929 | 132 | 15 |
| 2011 | Stevan Ridley, N.E. | 441 | 13 | 1 | 1263 | 51 | 12 | 773 | 62 | 7 |
| 2000 | Rueben Droughns, Det. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 21 | 1 | 11 | 53 | 2 |
| 2001 | Heath Evans, Sea. | 11 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 41 | 0 | 24 | 34 | 0 |
| 2020 | Darrynton Evans, Tenn. | 54 | 27 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 64 | 33 | 0 |
| 2023 | Tank Bigsby, Jac. | 132 | 6 | 2 | 766 | 54 | 7 | 356 | 32 | 2 |
| 2023 | Kendre Miller, N.O. | 156 | 117 | 1 | 148 | 33 | 1 | 193 | 30 | 1 |
| 2013 | Knile Davis, K.C. | 242 | 75 | 5 | 463 | 147 | 8 | 72 | 24 | 1 |
| 2016 | C.J. Prosise, Sea. | 172 | 208 | 1 | 23 | 87 | 0 | -3 | 22 | 0 |
| 2020 | KeShawn Vaughn, T.B. | 109 | 34 | 1 | 180 | 26 | 2 | 53 | 19 | 0 |
| 2021 | Trey Sermon, S.F. | 167 | 26 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 13 | 0 |
| 2007 | Garrett Wolfe, Chi. | 85 | 117 | 0 | 69 | 0 | 1 | 120 | 12 | 1 |
| 2003 | Justin Fargas, Oak. | 203 | 2 | 0 | 126 | 68 | 1 | 28 | 9 | 0 |
| 2011 | Alex Green, G.B. | 11 | 6 | 0 | 464 | 125 | 0 | 35 | 8 | 0 |
| 2003 | Musa Smith, Balt. | 31 | 0 | 2 | 48 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| 2017 | D'Onta Foreman, Hou. | 327 | 83 | 2 | -1 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | Glen Coffee, S.F. | 226 | 76 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2005 | Ryan Moats, Phil. | 278 | 7 | 3 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | Lorenzo Booker, Mia. | 125 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022 | Tyrion Davis-Price, S.F. | 99 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | Brian Calhoun, Det. | 19 | 20 | 0 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | Tony Hunt, Phil. | 16 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2005 | Maurice Clarett, Den. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2000 | Doug Chapman, Minn. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 135 | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | Trey Benson, Ariz. | 291 | 59 | 1 | 160 | 64 | 0 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2024 | Blake Corum, LAR | 207 | 58 | 0 | 746 | 36 | 6 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2025 | Kaleb Johnson, Pit. | 69 | 9 | 0 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2024 | MarShawn Lloyd, G.B. | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ? | ? | ? |
So anything is possible; sometimes players are stuck behind quality starters, or have injury issues that they're ultimately able to overcome. But odds seem to be against both Benson and Lloyd emerging as productive players this season. It doesn't happen much with guys who don't show anything the first two seasons.
We'll see how the Jacobs situation plays out, but I suspect I'll be more interested in throwing a late-round flier at Brooks than Lloyd. And granted, the Packers might well be looking into available veterans, too.
--Andy Richardson
