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Factoid

Drafting a top-5 running back

Next-year numbers better than expected

Over the weekend I ran an item highlighting the track record of wide receivers a year after finishing with top-5 numbers in PPR leagues. At the time, I speculated that the hit rate for elite running backs wouldn't be as good. The results surprised me.

I think it's because when a top running back disappoints, we tend to remember it more. If Christian McCaffrey or LeVeon Bell burns us, it tends to torpedo seasons, and we don't just move on and draft those players again a year later. Regardless, the percentage of top-5 running backs who came back and posted good or very good numbers a season later is very similar to the ratio of wide receivers who did it.

To summarize, from the last 20 years, about a third of wide receivers who ranked in the top 5 at the position came back and did it again a year later, with nearly half in the top 10 and three-quarters at least in the top 25 (so, still quality starters). That still leaves room for some busts (close to 1 in 4), but death and taxes are the only guarantees we get.

Here are the numbers for running backs. Same table: the 100 running backs who finished in the top 5 at the position over past 20 years, sorted by their finish the next season.

Twenty-three of the previous 95 (a quarter) came back with top-5 numbers a year later. And 42 finished in the top 10; more than half (49) top-12. Seventy of 95 -- same number as with wide receivers -- put up top-25 numbers.

TOP-5 RUNNING BACKS, ONE YEAR LATER (2006-2025)
YearPlayerRun-No-Rec-TDRkNextNext
2021Austin Ekeler, LAC911-70-647-202915-107-722-181
2006Brian Westbrook, Phil.1217-77-699-1141333-90-771-121
2022Christian McCaffrey, 2TM1139-85-741-1321459-67-564-211
2018Christian McCaffrey, Car.1098-107-867-1311387-116-1005-191
2024Bijan Robinson, Atl.1456-61-431-1531478-79-820-112
2006LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1815-56-508-3111474-60-475-182
2010LeSean McCoy, Phil.1080-78-592-931309-48-315-202
2016LeVeon Bell, Pitt.1268-75-616-931291-85-655-112
2010Arian Foster, Hou.1616-66-604-1811224-53-617-123
2011Arian Foster, Hou.1224-53-617-1231424-40-217-173
2019Derrick Henry, Ten.1540-18-206-1852027-19-114-173
2018Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.1434-77-567-951357-54-420-143
2024Jahmyr Gibbs, Det.1412-52-517-2011223-77-616-183
2013Matt Forte, Chi.1339-74-594-1221038-102-808-103
2017Todd Gurley, LAR1305-64-788-1911251-59-580-213
2017Alvin Kamara, N.O.728-81-826-143883-81-709-184
2013Marshawn Lynch, Sea.1257-36-316-1451306-37-367-174
2008Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.824-62-565-1431391-53-374-164
2011Ray Rice, Balt.1364-76-704-1511143-61-478-104
2019Aaron Jones, G.B.1084-49-474-1921104-47-355-115
2009Adrian Peterson, Min.1383-43-436-1821298-36-341-135
2024DeVon Achane, Mia.907-78-592-1251350-67-488-125
2012Marshawn Lynch, Sea.1590-23-196-1251257-36-316-145
2009Chris Johnson, Ten.2006-50-503-1611364-44-245-126
2015Devonta Freeman, Atl.1056-73-578-1411079-54-462-136
2007LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.1474-60-475-1821110-52-426-126
2024Derrick Henry, Balt.1921-19-193-1841595-15-150-167
2006Frank Gore, S.F.1695-61-485-951102-53-436-67
2013Jamaal Charles, K.C.1287-70-693-1911033-40-291-147
2016LeSean McCoy, Buff.1267-50-356-1441138-59-448-87
2009Ray Rice, Balt.1339-78-702-831220-63-556-67
2007Brian Westbrook, Phil.1333-90-771-121936-54-402-148
2014Matt Forte, Chi.1038-102-808-103898-44-389-78
2017Melvin Gordon, LAC1105-58-476-125885-50-490-148
2007Adrian Peterson, Min.1341-19-268-1351760-21-125-109
2020Alvin Kamara, N.O.932-83-756-211898-47-439-99
2018Alvin Kamara, N.O.883-81-709-184797-81-533-69
2022Derrick Henry, Ten.1538-33-398-1341167-28-214-129
2019Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.1357-54-420-143979-52-338-89
2008Thomas Jones, NYJ1312-36-207-1551402-10-58-149
2012Adrian Peterson, Min.2097-40-217-1311266-29-171-1110
2007Clinton Portis, Was.1262-47-389-1131487-28-218-910
2020Aaron Jones, G.B.1104-47-355-115799-52-391-1011
2021Joe Mixon, Cin.1205-42-314-164814-60-441-911
2018Saquon Barkley, NYG1307-91-721-1521003-52-438-811
2016Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.1631-32-363-162983-26-269-912
2017Kareem Hunt, K.C.1327-53-455-114824-26-378-1412
2013LeSean McCoy, Phil.1607-52-539-1131319-28-155-512
2008Matt Forte, Chi.1238-63-477-122929-57-471-412
2011Darren Sproles, N.O.603-86-710-105244-75-667-813
2009Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.1391-53-374-1641324-34-317-713
2022Saquon Barkley, NYG1312-57-338-105962-41-280-1013
2021Najee Harris, Pitt.1200-74-467-1031034-41-229-1014
2024Saquon Barkley, Phil.2005-33-278-1521140-37-273-914
2018Todd Gurley, LAR1251-59-580-213857-31-207-1414
2010Adrian Peterson, Min.1298-36-341-135970-18-139-1315
2014DeMarco Murray, Dall.1845-57-416-132702-44-322-715
2006Steven Jackson, St.L.1528-90-806-1621002-38-271-615
2023Breece Hall, NYJ994-76-591-92876-57-483-816
2020Dalvin Cook, Min.1557-44-361-1721159-34-224-616
2008DeAngelo Williams, Car.1515-22-121-2011117-29-252-716
2011LeSean McCoy, Phil.1309-48-315-202840-54-373-516
2009Frank Gore, S.F.1120-52-406-135853-46-452-517
2020David Montgomery, Chi.1070-54-438-104849-42-301-719
2021James Conner, Ari.752-37-375-185782-46-300-819
2023Rachaad White, T.B.990-64-549-94613-51-393-920
2016DeMarco Murray, Ten.1287-53-377-125659-39-266-721
2020Derrick Henry, Ten.2027-19-114-173937-18-154-1022
2012Ray Rice, Balt.1143-61-478-104660-58-321-422
2022Austin Ekeler, LAC915-107-722-181628-51-436-624
2019Austin Ekeler, LAC557-92-993-114530-54-403-327
2022Josh Jacobs, L.V.1653-53-400-123805-37-296-627
2021Jonathan Taylor, Ind.1811-40-360-201861-28-143-433
2008Michael Turner, Atl.1699-6-41-174871-5-35-1034
2023Travis Etienne, Jac.1008-58-476-123558-39-254-235
2006Larry Johnson, K.C.1789-41-410-193559-30-186-437
2007Joseph Addai, Ind.1072-41-364-154544-25-206-739
2010Peyton Hillis, Cle.1177-61-477-132587-22-130-344
2012Arian Foster, Hou.1424-40-217-173542-22-183-246
2015DeAngelo Williams, Pitt.907-40-367-115343-18-118-649
2014LeVeon Bell, Pitt.1361-83-854-111556-24-136-349
2019Christian McCaffrey, Car.1387-116-1005-191225-17-149-654
2011Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.1606-43-374-114414-14-86-254
2015Doug Martin, T.B.1402-33-271-74421-14-134-355
2023Raheem Mostert, Mia.1012-25-175-215278-19-161-256
2012Doug Martin, T.B.1454-49-472-122456-12-66-157
2014Marshawn Lynch, Sea.1306-37-367-174417-13-80-361
2014Arian Foster, Hou.1246-38-327-135163-22-227-365
2023Christian McCaffrey, S.F.1459-67-564-211202-15-146-069
2015Danny Woodhead, S.D.336-80-755-93116-6-35-197
2013Knowshon Moreno, Den.1038-60-548-134148-1-8-1103
2010Jamaal Charles, K.C.1467-45-468-8483-5-9-1104
2016David Johnson, Ari.1239-80-879-20123-6-67-0110
2015Adrian Peterson, Min.1485-30-222-11272-3-8-0122
2017LeVeon Bell, Pitt.1291-85-655-112---DNP
2025Bijan Robinson, Atl.1478-79-820-112?-?-?-??
2025Christian McCaffrey, S.F.1202-102-924-171?-?-?-??
2025DeVon Achane, Mia.1350-67-488-125?-?-?-??
2025Jahmyr Gibbs, Det.1223-77-616-183?-?-?-??
2025Jonathan Taylor, Ind.1585-46-378-204?-?-?-??

Most of the exceptions got hurt, or you know, held out for the entire season (Bell). But in general, it doesn't look like anyone should be too afraid to draft Bijan, Gibbs, Achane, Taylor or McCaffrey this season. Few sure things, but the hit rate is similar as with wide receivers.

--Andy Richardson

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