Over the weekend I ran an item highlighting the track record of wide receivers a year after finishing with top-5 numbers in PPR leagues. At the time, I speculated that the hit rate for elite running backs wouldn't be as good. The results surprised me.
I think it's because when a top running back disappoints, we tend to remember it more. If Christian McCaffrey or LeVeon Bell burns us, it tends to torpedo seasons, and we don't just move on and draft those players again a year later. Regardless, the percentage of top-5 running backs who came back and posted good or very good numbers a season later is very similar to the ratio of wide receivers who did it.
To summarize, from the last 20 years, about a third of wide receivers who ranked in the top 5 at the position came back and did it again a year later, with nearly half in the top 10 and three-quarters at least in the top 25 (so, still quality starters). That still leaves room for some busts (close to 1 in 4), but death and taxes are the only guarantees we get.
Here are the numbers for running backs. Same table: the 100 running backs who finished in the top 5 at the position over past 20 years, sorted by their finish the next season.
Twenty-three of the previous 95 (a quarter) came back with top-5 numbers a year later. And 42 finished in the top 10; more than half (49) top-12. Seventy of 95 -- same number as with wide receivers -- put up top-25 numbers.
| TOP-5 RUNNING BACKS, ONE YEAR LATER (2006-2025) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run-No-Rec-TD | Rk | Next | Next |
| 2021 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 911-70-647-20 | 2 | 915-107-722-18 | 1 |
| 2006 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 1217-77-699-11 | 4 | 1333-90-771-12 | 1 |
| 2022 | Christian McCaffrey, 2TM | 1139-85-741-13 | 2 | 1459-67-564-21 | 1 |
| 2018 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1098-107-867-13 | 1 | 1387-116-1005-19 | 1 |
| 2024 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 1456-61-431-15 | 3 | 1478-79-820-11 | 2 |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1815-56-508-31 | 1 | 1474-60-475-18 | 2 |
| 2010 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 1080-78-592-9 | 3 | 1309-48-315-20 | 2 |
| 2016 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1268-75-616-9 | 3 | 1291-85-655-11 | 2 |
| 2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1616-66-604-18 | 1 | 1224-53-617-12 | 3 |
| 2011 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1224-53-617-12 | 3 | 1424-40-217-17 | 3 |
| 2019 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 1540-18-206-18 | 5 | 2027-19-114-17 | 3 |
| 2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1434-77-567-9 | 5 | 1357-54-420-14 | 3 |
| 2024 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 1412-52-517-20 | 1 | 1223-77-616-18 | 3 |
| 2013 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1339-74-594-12 | 2 | 1038-102-808-10 | 3 |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 1305-64-788-19 | 1 | 1251-59-580-21 | 3 |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 728-81-826-14 | 3 | 883-81-709-18 | 4 |
| 2013 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1257-36-316-14 | 5 | 1306-37-367-17 | 4 |
| 2008 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 824-62-565-14 | 3 | 1391-53-374-16 | 4 |
| 2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1364-76-704-15 | 1 | 1143-61-478-10 | 4 |
| 2019 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 1084-49-474-19 | 2 | 1104-47-355-11 | 5 |
| 2009 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1383-43-436-18 | 2 | 1298-36-341-13 | 5 |
| 2024 | DeVon Achane, Mia. | 907-78-592-12 | 5 | 1350-67-488-12 | 5 |
| 2012 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1590-23-196-12 | 5 | 1257-36-316-14 | 5 |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 2006-50-503-16 | 1 | 1364-44-245-12 | 6 |
| 2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 1056-73-578-14 | 1 | 1079-54-462-13 | 6 |
| 2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1474-60-475-18 | 2 | 1110-52-426-12 | 6 |
| 2024 | Derrick Henry, Balt. | 1921-19-193-18 | 4 | 1595-15-150-16 | 7 |
| 2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 1695-61-485-9 | 5 | 1102-53-436-6 | 7 |
| 2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1287-70-693-19 | 1 | 1033-40-291-14 | 7 |
| 2016 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 1267-50-356-14 | 4 | 1138-59-448-8 | 7 |
| 2009 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1339-78-702-8 | 3 | 1220-63-556-6 | 7 |
| 2007 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 1333-90-771-12 | 1 | 936-54-402-14 | 8 |
| 2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1038-102-808-10 | 3 | 898-44-389-7 | 8 |
| 2017 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 1105-58-476-12 | 5 | 885-50-490-14 | 8 |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1341-19-268-13 | 5 | 1760-21-125-10 | 9 |
| 2020 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 932-83-756-21 | 1 | 898-47-439-9 | 9 |
| 2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 883-81-709-18 | 4 | 797-81-533-6 | 9 |
| 2022 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 1538-33-398-13 | 4 | 1167-28-214-12 | 9 |
| 2019 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1357-54-420-14 | 3 | 979-52-338-8 | 9 |
| 2008 | Thomas Jones, NYJ | 1312-36-207-15 | 5 | 1402-10-58-14 | 9 |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 2097-40-217-13 | 1 | 1266-29-171-11 | 10 |
| 2007 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 1262-47-389-11 | 3 | 1487-28-218-9 | 10 |
| 2020 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 1104-47-355-11 | 5 | 799-52-391-10 | 11 |
| 2021 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 1205-42-314-16 | 4 | 814-60-441-9 | 11 |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1307-91-721-15 | 2 | 1003-52-438-8 | 11 |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1631-32-363-16 | 2 | 983-26-269-9 | 12 |
| 2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1327-53-455-11 | 4 | 824-26-378-14 | 12 |
| 2013 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 1607-52-539-11 | 3 | 1319-28-155-5 | 12 |
| 2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 1238-63-477-12 | 2 | 929-57-471-4 | 12 |
| 2011 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 603-86-710-10 | 5 | 244-75-667-8 | 13 |
| 2009 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1391-53-374-16 | 4 | 1324-34-317-7 | 13 |
| 2022 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1312-57-338-10 | 5 | 962-41-280-10 | 13 |
| 2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1200-74-467-10 | 3 | 1034-41-229-10 | 14 |
| 2024 | Saquon Barkley, Phil. | 2005-33-278-15 | 2 | 1140-37-273-9 | 14 |
| 2018 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 1251-59-580-21 | 3 | 857-31-207-14 | 14 |
| 2010 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1298-36-341-13 | 5 | 970-18-139-13 | 15 |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 1845-57-416-13 | 2 | 702-44-322-7 | 15 |
| 2006 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 1528-90-806-16 | 2 | 1002-38-271-6 | 15 |
| 2023 | Breece Hall, NYJ | 994-76-591-9 | 2 | 876-57-483-8 | 16 |
| 2020 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 1557-44-361-17 | 2 | 1159-34-224-6 | 16 |
| 2008 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 1515-22-121-20 | 1 | 1117-29-252-7 | 16 |
| 2011 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 1309-48-315-20 | 2 | 840-54-373-5 | 16 |
| 2009 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 1120-52-406-13 | 5 | 853-46-452-5 | 17 |
| 2020 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 1070-54-438-10 | 4 | 849-42-301-7 | 19 |
| 2021 | James Conner, Ari. | 752-37-375-18 | 5 | 782-46-300-8 | 19 |
| 2023 | Rachaad White, T.B. | 990-64-549-9 | 4 | 613-51-393-9 | 20 |
| 2016 | DeMarco Murray, Ten. | 1287-53-377-12 | 5 | 659-39-266-7 | 21 |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 2027-19-114-17 | 3 | 937-18-154-10 | 22 |
| 2012 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 1143-61-478-10 | 4 | 660-58-321-4 | 22 |
| 2022 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 915-107-722-18 | 1 | 628-51-436-6 | 24 |
| 2019 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 557-92-993-11 | 4 | 530-54-403-3 | 27 |
| 2022 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 1653-53-400-12 | 3 | 805-37-296-6 | 27 |
| 2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1811-40-360-20 | 1 | 861-28-143-4 | 33 |
| 2008 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 1699-6-41-17 | 4 | 871-5-35-10 | 34 |
| 2023 | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 1008-58-476-12 | 3 | 558-39-254-2 | 35 |
| 2006 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 1789-41-410-19 | 3 | 559-30-186-4 | 37 |
| 2007 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1072-41-364-15 | 4 | 544-25-206-7 | 39 |
| 2010 | Peyton Hillis, Cle. | 1177-61-477-13 | 2 | 587-22-130-3 | 44 |
| 2012 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1424-40-217-17 | 3 | 542-22-183-2 | 46 |
| 2015 | DeAngelo Williams, Pitt. | 907-40-367-11 | 5 | 343-18-118-6 | 49 |
| 2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1361-83-854-11 | 1 | 556-24-136-3 | 49 |
| 2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 1387-116-1005-19 | 1 | 225-17-149-6 | 54 |
| 2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 1606-43-374-11 | 4 | 414-14-86-2 | 54 |
| 2015 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1402-33-271-7 | 4 | 421-14-134-3 | 55 |
| 2023 | Raheem Mostert, Mia. | 1012-25-175-21 | 5 | 278-19-161-2 | 56 |
| 2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454-49-472-12 | 2 | 456-12-66-1 | 57 |
| 2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 1306-37-367-17 | 4 | 417-13-80-3 | 61 |
| 2014 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 1246-38-327-13 | 5 | 163-22-227-3 | 65 |
| 2023 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 1459-67-564-21 | 1 | 202-15-146-0 | 69 |
| 2015 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 336-80-755-9 | 3 | 116-6-35-1 | 97 |
| 2013 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 1038-60-548-13 | 4 | 148-1-8-1 | 103 |
| 2010 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 1467-45-468-8 | 4 | 83-5-9-1 | 104 |
| 2016 | David Johnson, Ari. | 1239-80-879-20 | 1 | 23-6-67-0 | 110 |
| 2015 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1485-30-222-11 | 2 | 72-3-8-0 | 122 |
| 2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1291-85-655-11 | 2 | --- | DNP |
| 2025 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 1478-79-820-11 | 2 | ?-?-?-? | ? |
| 2025 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 1202-102-924-17 | 1 | ?-?-?-? | ? |
| 2025 | DeVon Achane, Mia. | 1350-67-488-12 | 5 | ?-?-?-? | ? |
| 2025 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 1223-77-616-18 | 3 | ?-?-?-? | ? |
| 2025 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 1585-46-378-20 | 4 | ?-?-?-? | ? |
Most of the exceptions got hurt, or you know, held out for the entire season (Bell). But in general, it doesn't look like anyone should be too afraid to draft Bijan, Gibbs, Achane, Taylor or McCaffrey this season. Few sure things, but the hit rate is similar as with wide receivers.
--Andy Richardson

