Ian published an article the other day about how often third-round wide receivers develop into solid pros. Working on the update this week, I came across a number of camp reports involving wideouts selected in that round. I wondered how often they hit as rookies.
The Falcons have talked up Zachariah Branch, while the Bears have had good things to say about Zavion Thomas. Malachi Fields with the Giants, Ja'Kobi Lane with the Ravens and Ted Hurst with Tampa Bay -- all have got some positive press. In most cases, they're on teams where they could (either because of depth issues, modest veterans ahead of them, or injuries) open as a top-3 wide receiver right away.
Draftable in redraft fantasy leagues? That's a little less likely, though it does happen.
Looking at the last 15 years of wide receivers selected in the third round, I see 66 players who got on the field; a little over 4 per season. Of those 66, just 6 posted top 40 numbers (PPR) in their rookie seasons; just 2 finished in the top 25.
Every once in a while you get a Keenan Allen or Cooper Kupp, but doesn't seem like anyone should get too excited about these players, at least in their rookie seasons. Takes some time for them to emerge as fantasy factors.
Table shows the top 50 third-round rookies from the last 15 years, sorted by rank in PPR leagues in that first season. Last year's five (very modest) representatives are in bold.
| 3RD-ROUND ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS, 2011-2025 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Rk |
| 2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 105 | 71 | 1046 | 8 | 18 |
| 2017 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 94 | 62 | 869 | 5 | 25 |
| 2012 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 90 | 50 | 861 | 8 | 28 |
| 2019 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 93 | 58 | 919 | 7 | 30 |
| 2023 | Tank Dell, Hou. | 75 | 47 | 709 | 7 | 39 |
| 2019 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 92 | 59 | 680 | 6 | 39 |
| 2015 | Tyler Lockett, Sea. | 69 | 51 | 664 | 8 | 41 |
| 2023 | Josh Downs, Ind. | 98 | 68 | 771 | 2 | 44 |
| 2013 | Terrance Williams, Dall. | 74 | 44 | 736 | 5 | 45 |
| 2014 | John Brown, Ari. | 102 | 48 | 696 | 5 | 53 |
| 2024 | Jalen McMillan, T.B. | 58 | 37 | 461 | 8 | 55 |
| 2023 | Michael Wilson, Ari. | 58 | 38 | 565 | 3 | 60 |
| 2017 | Kenny Golladay, Det. | 48 | 28 | 477 | 3 | 70 |
| 2017 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 55 | 34 | 525 | 1 | 72 |
| 2018 | TreQuan Smith, N.O. | 44 | 28 | 427 | 5 | 73 |
| 2021 | Joshua Palmer, LAC | 49 | 33 | 353 | 4 | 76 |
| 2018 | Michael Gallup, Dall. | 68 | 33 | 507 | 2 | 78 |
| 2014 | Donte Moncrief, Ind. | 49 | 32 | 444 | 3 | 79 |
| 2025 | Isaac TeSlaa, Det. | 27 | 16 | 239 | 6 | 82 |
| 2025 | Pat Bryant, Den. | 49 | 31 | 378 | 1 | 85 |
| 2021 | Nico Collins, Hou. | 61 | 33 | 446 | 1 | 87 |
| 2012 | T.J. Graham, Buff. | 58 | 31 | 322 | 1 | 88 |
| 2023 | Tre Tucker, L.V. | 34 | 19 | 331 | 2 | 89 |
| 2025 | Jaylin Noel, Hou. | 35 | 26 | 292 | 2 | 92 |
| 2012 | Mohamed Sanu, Cin. | 25 | 16 | 154 | 4 | 96 |
| 2011 | Vincent Brown, S.D. | 40 | 19 | 329 | 2 | 98 |
| 2013 | Marquise Goodwin, Buff. | 32 | 17 | 283 | 3 | 100 |
| 2023 | Jalin Hyatt, NYG | 40 | 23 | 373 | 0 | 101 |
| 2019 | Miles Boykin, Balt. | 22 | 13 | 198 | 3 | 107 |
| 2017 | Taywan Taylor, Ten. | 28 | 16 | 231 | 1 | 110 |
| 2011 | Austin Pettis, St.L. | 48 | 27 | 256 | 0 | 110 |
| 2015 | Jaelen Strong, Hou. | 24 | 14 | 161 | 3 | 111 |
| 2025 | Kyle Williams, N.E. | 21 | 10 | 209 | 3 | 113 |
| 2013 | Stedman Bailey, St.L. | 25 | 17 | 226 | 1 | 113 |
| 2020 | Lynn Bowden, Mia. | 37 | 28 | 211 | 0 | 115 |
| 2020 | Devin Duvernay, Balt. | 26 | 20 | 201 | 1 | 117 |
| 2023 | Cedric Tillman, Cle. | 44 | 21 | 224 | 0 | 118 |
| 2015 | Chris Conley, K.C. | 31 | 17 | 199 | 1 | 120 |
| 2022 | David Bell, Cle. | 35 | 24 | 214 | 0 | 121 |
| 2015 | Ty Montgomery, G.B. | 19 | 15 | 136 | 2 | 122 |
| 2011 | Leonard Hankerson, Was. | 20 | 13 | 163 | 0 | 125 |
| 2024 | Luke McCaffrey, Was. | 24 | 18 | 168 | 0 | 126 |
| 2022 | Velus Jones, Chi. | 14 | 7 | 107 | 2 | 126 |
| 2014 | Josh Huff, Phil. | 18 | 8 | 98 | 1 | 131 |
| 2016 | Braxton Miller, Hou. | 28 | 15 | 99 | 1 | 133 |
| 2020 | Bryan Edwards, L.V. | 15 | 11 | 193 | 1 | 134 |
| 2021 | Anthony Schwartz, Cle. | 23 | 10 | 135 | 1 | 138 |
| 2025 | Savion Williams, G.B. | 10 | 10 | 78 | 1 | 143 |
| 2021 | Dyami Brown, Was. | 25 | 12 | 165 | 0 | 147 |
| 2017 | ArDarius Stewart, NYJ | 13 | 6 | 82 | 0 | 148 |
If one of these rookies is a factor this season, I'm throwing my lot with Branch (pictured). In Atlanta, Drake, Bijan and Pitts will be the top 3 targets, but the wide receivers are a question mark otherwise. Jahan Dotson should be the No. 2, with Olamide Zaccheaus the journeyman veteran in the slot who Branch needs to beat out. Branch can handle a busy role; he caught 81 passes for Georgia last year. But realistically, probably a modest rookie impact.
--Andy Richardson

