Fantasy Index

Around the NFL

Here we go again

McCaffrey not practicing for 49ers

I see that Christian McCaffrey isn’t practicing for the 49ers. Supposedly nothing too serious – muscle tightness, they say – but he’s a back who scares the crap out of me.

We’ve been here before.

McCaffrey handled the ball a league-high 403 times in 2019; the next year he played in three games. McCaffrey had a league-high 339 touches in 2023; the next year he played in four games.

McCaffrey last year handled the ball a league-high 413 times. That makes him the Lucy Gradkowski of the first round. No thanks.

This time around, there’s the added dimension of McCaffrey being 30 years old. Running back is a tough position in general, but particularly for older guys.

In this century, only 21 running backs who were either 29 or 30 years old have handled the ball 300-plus times in a season. That’s combined runs and catches, and those guys are listed below …

OLDER BACKS WITH 300-PLUS TOUCHES
YearPlayerAgeGAttRunNoRecTDPPRRk
2000James Stewart, Det.29163391,1843228711249.115
2000Lamar Smith, Mia.30153091,1393120116261.013
2001Antowain Smith, N.E.29162871,1571919213231.910
2002Curtis Martin, NYJ29162611,094493627238.617
2002Eddie George, Ten.29163431,1653625514262.014
2003Eddie George, Ten.30163121,031221635171.423
2003Curtis Martin, NYJ30163231,308422622211.018
2004Corey Dillon, N.E.30153451,6351510313268.88
2006Ahman Green, G.B.29142661,059463736225.215
2007Edgerrin James, Ari.29163241,222242047208.613
2008Jamal Lewis, Cle.29162791,002231784165.030
2008LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.29162921,1105242612277.66
2011Michael Turner, Atl.29163011,3401716811233.88
2014Matt Forte, Chi.29162661,03810280810350.63
2015Adrian Peterson, Min.30163271,4853022211266.72
2016LeGarrette Blount, N.E.30162991,16173818234.99
2017LeSean McCoy, Buff.29162871,138594488265.67
2023Derrick Henry, Ten.29172801,1672821412246.89
2024Aaron Jones, Min.30172551,138514087247.612
2024Derrick Henry, Balt.30173251,9211919318338.44
2025Christian McCaffrey, S.F.29173111,20210292417416.61

If we look at how those backs played in their next NFL seasons, I see those previous 20 backs playing in 53 fewer games and scoring 71 fewer touchdowns. I see an average of 91 fewer carries for 377 fewer yards, with about a catch less per week in the passing game.

In the follow-up seasons, only four of these 20 backs (tagged with black dots) compiled top-15 overall numbers (assuming PPR scoring). Previously, all but four of them ranked in the top 15.

McCaffrey currently is going in the top 5 in drafts, but I have zero interest in him at the price tag. I’ve made that mistake before.

Before you win your league, you’ve got to not lose it. And McCaffrey to me looks like a player with a whole lot of potential to blow up on the launchpad.

SAME RUNNING BACKS, NEXT YEAR
YearPlayerAgeGAttRunNoRecTDPPRRk
2001Lamar Smith, Mia.3116313968302348198.218
2001James Stewart, Det.3011143685232422127.734
2002Antowain Smith, N.E.3016252982312438203.524
2003Curtis Martin, NYJ30163231,308422622211.018
2003Eddie George, Ten.30163121,031221635171.423
2004• Curtis Martin, NYJ31163711,6974124514319.25
2004Eddie George, Dall.3113132432983484.548
2005Corey Dillon, N.E.31122097332218113191.417
2007Ahman Green, Hou.3067026014123264.364
2008Edgerrin James, Ari.30131335141285391.956
2009LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.30142237302015412180.424
2009Jamal Lewis, Cle.309143500888068.863
2012Michael Turner, Atl.30162228001912811177.822
2015• Matt Forte, Chi.3013218898443897216.78
2016Adrian Peterson, Min.313377238011.0122
2017LeGarrette Blount, Phil.31161737668503109.645
2018LeSean McCoy, Buff.3014161514342383127.239
2024• Derrick Henry, Balt.30173251,9211919318338.44
2025• Derrick Henry, Balt.31173071,5951515016285.57
2025Aaron Jones, Min.3112132548281993120.741
2026Christian McCaffrey, S.F.30????????

—Ian Allan

Older
Newer

Fantasy Index