I see that Christian McCaffrey isn’t practicing for the 49ers. Supposedly nothing too serious – muscle tightness, they say – but he’s a back who scares the crap out of me.
We’ve been here before.
McCaffrey handled the ball a league-high 403 times in 2019; the next year he played in three games. McCaffrey had a league-high 339 touches in 2023; the next year he played in four games.
McCaffrey last year handled the ball a league-high 413 times. That makes him the Lucy Gradkowski of the first round. No thanks.
This time around, there’s the added dimension of McCaffrey being 30 years old. Running back is a tough position in general, but particularly for older guys.
In this century, only 21 running backs who were either 29 or 30 years old have handled the ball 300-plus times in a season. That’s combined runs and catches, and those guys are listed below …
| OLDER BACKS WITH 300-PLUS TOUCHES | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Age | G | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2000 | James Stewart, Det. | 29 | 16 | 339 | 1,184 | 32 | 287 | 11 | 249.1 | 15 |
| 2000 | Lamar Smith, Mia. | 30 | 15 | 309 | 1,139 | 31 | 201 | 16 | 261.0 | 13 |
| 2001 | Antowain Smith, N.E. | 29 | 16 | 287 | 1,157 | 19 | 192 | 13 | 231.9 | 10 |
| 2002 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 29 | 16 | 261 | 1,094 | 49 | 362 | 7 | 238.6 | 17 |
| 2002 | Eddie George, Ten. | 29 | 16 | 343 | 1,165 | 36 | 255 | 14 | 262.0 | 14 |
| 2003 | Eddie George, Ten. | 30 | 16 | 312 | 1,031 | 22 | 163 | 5 | 171.4 | 23 |
| 2003 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 30 | 16 | 323 | 1,308 | 42 | 262 | 2 | 211.0 | 18 |
| 2004 | Corey Dillon, N.E. | 30 | 15 | 345 | 1,635 | 15 | 103 | 13 | 268.8 | 8 |
| 2006 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 29 | 14 | 266 | 1,059 | 46 | 373 | 6 | 225.2 | 15 |
| 2007 | Edgerrin James, Ari. | 29 | 16 | 324 | 1,222 | 24 | 204 | 7 | 208.6 | 13 |
| 2008 | Jamal Lewis, Cle. | 29 | 16 | 279 | 1,002 | 23 | 178 | 4 | 165.0 | 30 |
| 2008 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 29 | 16 | 292 | 1,110 | 52 | 426 | 12 | 277.6 | 6 |
| 2011 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 29 | 16 | 301 | 1,340 | 17 | 168 | 11 | 233.8 | 8 |
| 2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 29 | 16 | 266 | 1,038 | 102 | 808 | 10 | 350.6 | 3 |
| 2015 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 30 | 16 | 327 | 1,485 | 30 | 222 | 11 | 266.7 | 2 |
| 2016 | LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 30 | 16 | 299 | 1,161 | 7 | 38 | 18 | 234.9 | 9 |
| 2017 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 29 | 16 | 287 | 1,138 | 59 | 448 | 8 | 265.6 | 7 |
| 2023 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 29 | 17 | 280 | 1,167 | 28 | 214 | 12 | 246.8 | 9 |
| 2024 | Aaron Jones, Min. | 30 | 17 | 255 | 1,138 | 51 | 408 | 7 | 247.6 | 12 |
| 2024 | Derrick Henry, Balt. | 30 | 17 | 325 | 1,921 | 19 | 193 | 18 | 338.4 | 4 |
| 2025 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 29 | 17 | 311 | 1,202 | 102 | 924 | 17 | 416.6 | 1 |
If we look at how those backs played in their next NFL seasons, I see those previous 20 backs playing in 53 fewer games and scoring 71 fewer touchdowns. I see an average of 91 fewer carries for 377 fewer yards, with about a catch less per week in the passing game.
In the follow-up seasons, only four of these 20 backs (tagged with black dots) compiled top-15 overall numbers (assuming PPR scoring). Previously, all but four of them ranked in the top 15.
McCaffrey currently is going in the top 5 in drafts, but I have zero interest in him at the price tag. I’ve made that mistake before.
Before you win your league, you’ve got to not lose it. And McCaffrey to me looks like a player with a whole lot of potential to blow up on the launchpad.
| SAME RUNNING BACKS, NEXT YEAR | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Age | G | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2001 | Lamar Smith, Mia. | 31 | 16 | 313 | 968 | 30 | 234 | 8 | 198.2 | 18 |
| 2001 | James Stewart, Det. | 30 | 11 | 143 | 685 | 23 | 242 | 2 | 127.7 | 34 |
| 2002 | Antowain Smith, N.E. | 30 | 16 | 252 | 982 | 31 | 243 | 8 | 203.5 | 24 |
| 2003 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 30 | 16 | 323 | 1,308 | 42 | 262 | 2 | 211.0 | 18 |
| 2003 | Eddie George, Ten. | 30 | 16 | 312 | 1,031 | 22 | 163 | 5 | 171.4 | 23 |
| 2004 | • Curtis Martin, NYJ | 31 | 16 | 371 | 1,697 | 41 | 245 | 14 | 319.2 | 5 |
| 2004 | Eddie George, Dall. | 31 | 13 | 132 | 432 | 9 | 83 | 4 | 84.5 | 48 |
| 2005 | Corey Dillon, N.E. | 31 | 12 | 209 | 733 | 22 | 181 | 13 | 191.4 | 17 |
| 2007 | Ahman Green, Hou. | 30 | 6 | 70 | 260 | 14 | 123 | 2 | 64.3 | 64 |
| 2008 | Edgerrin James, Ari. | 30 | 13 | 133 | 514 | 12 | 85 | 3 | 91.9 | 56 |
| 2009 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 30 | 14 | 223 | 730 | 20 | 154 | 12 | 180.4 | 24 |
| 2009 | Jamal Lewis, Cle. | 30 | 9 | 143 | 500 | 8 | 88 | 0 | 68.8 | 63 |
| 2012 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 30 | 16 | 222 | 800 | 19 | 128 | 11 | 177.8 | 22 |
| 2015 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 30 | 13 | 218 | 898 | 44 | 389 | 7 | 216.7 | 8 |
| 2016 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 31 | 3 | 37 | 72 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 11.0 | 122 |
| 2017 | LeGarrette Blount, Phil. | 31 | 16 | 173 | 766 | 8 | 50 | 3 | 109.6 | 45 |
| 2018 | LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 30 | 14 | 161 | 514 | 34 | 238 | 3 | 127.2 | 39 |
| 2024 | • Derrick Henry, Balt. | 30 | 17 | 325 | 1,921 | 19 | 193 | 18 | 338.4 | 4 |
| 2025 | • Derrick Henry, Balt. | 31 | 17 | 307 | 1,595 | 15 | 150 | 16 | 285.5 | 7 |
| 2025 | Aaron Jones, Min. | 31 | 12 | 132 | 548 | 28 | 199 | 3 | 120.7 | 41 |
| 2026 | Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 30 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan

