The great American philosopher Donald H. Rumsfeld once opined on the subject of unknowns. He said there were the known unknowns, the things we know that we don’t know. There are also the unknown unknowns, which are the things we don’t even know that we don’t know. While both are dangerous, he suggested that the latter are the ones that can really hurt you.
I’m not sure if he was ever a fantasy manager, but his advice actually makes sense as you prepare for draft day.
For our purposes, what are the known unknowns? I think it’s the guys we know could make an impact on a team, only we don’t know if they will or where they’ll go. Stefon Diggs fell into this category until he signed with Washington. If you drafted in late July or early August, your evaluation of Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels was different than it is today. And guys like Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks, Nick Chubb, Jonnu Smith and even Kareem Hunt are still out there. I’m not saying they’d all be fantasy relevant, but they could definitely hurt the fantasy relevance of a guy on your team. A couple of them might be just productive enough to take up a valuable spot on your roster while you hope they turn into something useful. These players are dangerous because we don’t know if they’ll land on a practice squad or wait around in free agency for an injury, or perhaps never play again (a real possibility for guys like Joe Mixon and Tyreek Hill). Or maybe teams are already interested but want to wait until after week 1 so their salary isn’t guaranteed. But they’re out there, and if you’re drafting in the next week or so you have to hope they don’t mess up your strategy, or impact your mid-round steals, or muddy up an already-confusing depth chart.
Then there are the unknown unknowns: The guys we don’t even know we need to worry about on draft day. They’re the last-minute cuts that occur after your draft has been held. They latch on to a new team and threaten a time share when you expected clear sailing for a guy you selected. Or they slide right into a lucrative backup position when you thought your guy had that spot locked up. Teams are waiting on these players as well. The Cardinals can’t keep 33 running backs on their roster, after all. Maybe I’m exaggerating, and maybe they’ll keep everybody. But we don’t know, and they’re the unknown unknowns we have to consider.
The guys who get cut might be someone on your fantasy team who looked like they were in a great spot. Even if they end up on a new team, it might be buried behind a three-down starter, or on a four-win team, or just on a practice squad. That pick becomes a waste before any games have been played. And right now, you have no idea who they are. They’re unknown unknowns.
So what can you do? Lobby your league to draft as late as possible. Wait until the pretend games are over, the final cuts have been made and the very best of the cast-offs have found new teams. See who kept their coveted spots and who looks to be in a worse position headed into week 1. Things can (and will) change again once the real games start, of course. But why add even more variables when you’ve got plenty to consider already?
If it’s too late to adjust the draft, at least be aware of these unknowns, both known and (yes) unknown. Don’t get too excited about those depth picks, and be ready to make adjustments before week 1 if their circumstances change. By the time everybody knows about the latest cut or signing, it will probably be too late to do anything about it. Unfortunately, we all know how that feels.
Are you concerned about any free agents hurting your depth picks? Which guys seem the most likely to make a real impact on a team? How late does your main league draft? Share your thoughts below.
