It’s early, but I’m liking the No. 1 overall pick of this year’s draft more than the No. 1 overall from last year.
Fernando Mendoza and Cam Ward were both in action on Thursday night. To me, Mendoza looked a lot more like an NFL quarterback. There was a lot more proof of concept.
His numbers were better. He completed 10 of 16 for 97 yards, with a touchdown. There was one beautifully feathered ball up the middle, dropping it in just over a linebacker’s hand while getting it down before the upcoming safety. Many current quarterbacks would miss that throw. And there was a quick-hitting accurate ball on a short touchdown.
Ward, on the other hand, had way too many misfires, completing only 5 of 12 passes. And he got away with a near-disaster around his own goal-line, with an intentional grounding call that wasn’t far away from being a fumble.
Ward, of course, has the advantage of having been around for a year. And quarterbacks do break out from time to time in their second year. But he didn’t do anything in his preseason debut that makes it look like there’s much of a chance of that happening.
That got me curious to look at other quarterbacks who’ve been able to step up their games in their second season. In the last 20 years, 10 quarterbacks have put up bottom-10 numbers in their first season but been able to move up into the top 20 in year No. 2. And I speak here only of guys who started at least half the time in both of their first two seasons. (And I’m looking not at cumulative stats but per-game production, using standard scoring).
These are those 10 quarterbacks …
| QUARTERBACKS MAKING SECOND-YEAR LEAP | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts | Rk |
| 2010 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 16 | 215.7 | 1.56 | .38 | 22.8 | .00 | 19.4 | 16 |
| 2013 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 244.6 | 1.50 | 1.06 | 14.9 | .06 | 20.1 | 20 |
| 2015 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 16 | 276.8 | 2.19 | 1.13 | 19.4 | .13 | 25.4 | 2 |
| 2015 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 16 | 249.2 | 2.00 | .81 | 8.6 | .00 | 21.4 | 20 |
| 2017 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 13 | 253.5 | 2.54 | .54 | 23.0 | .00 | 25.7 | 2 |
| 2018 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 14 | 230.2 | 1.71 | .86 | 30.1 | .21 | 23.2 | 10 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 15 | 149.5 | 1.13 | .73 | 76.2 | .53 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 2022 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 17 | 241.9 | 1.47 | .47 | 17.1 | .29 | 21.8 | 11 |
| 2024 | Bryce Young, Car. | 12 | 195.8 | 1.25 | .75 | 20.1 | .50 | 19.8 | 15 |
| 2025 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | 17 | 231.9 | 1.59 | .41 | 22.8 | .24 | 21.8 | 13 |
If we take those 10 quarterbacks and look at how they played in their first preseason game of their second season, all but two definitely put up better numbers than Ward did on Thursday. Only one of those 10 quarterbacks completed less than 50 percent.
| FIRST PRESEASON GAME FOR THOSE GUYS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Opp | Com | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2010 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | at Mia. | 4 | 4 | 53 | 1 | 0 |
| 2013 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | at Dall. | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 2015 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | Pitt. | 11 | 15 | 118 | 0 | 0 |
| 2015 | Derek Carr, Oak. | St. L. | 6 | 9 | 43 | 0 | 1 |
| 2017 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | at G.B. | 4 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
| 2018 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | at Cin. | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022 | Justin Fields, Chi. | K.C. | 4 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
| 2022 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | Cle. | 6 | 12 | 91 | 1 | 0 |
| 2024 | Bryce Young, Car. | at Buff. | 6 | 8 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 2025 | Caleb Williams, Chi. | at Buff. | 4 | 7 | 95 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 | Cam Ward, Ten. | at S.F. | 5 | 12 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
For fantasy purposes, it always makes sense to keep an eye on rushing production. In most leagues, rushing stats tend to be worth about twice as much as passing stats, so it’s good to try to latch onto guys who can move. And Mendoza without question will be beating Ward in the rushing categories.
While Mendoza isn’t an elite runner, he’s got a good feel and willingness for how to scramble. He’ll be scoring some touchdowns on his own. He had a timely scramble in his debut Thursday.
Ward has Brian Daboll as his offensive coordinator. That’s a plus in theory, considering Daboll’s history of using his quarterbacks as designed runners – look at the numbers put up by Jaxson Dart and Daniel Jones in recent years. But Ward doesn’t run like those guys. He’s preference seems to be to scramble to buy time for pass plays. That’s good, and I’m all for it, but it works against his fantasy value. He got caught for a sack on Thursday on a player where a more run-oriented quarterback would run for some yards. I don’t think Daboll will be using Ward on many designed runs.
If we’re in a dynasty league, I would comfortably be selecting Mendoza before Ward. For a 2026 league, there’s the added dimension of the Raiders perhaps beginning the season with Kirk Cousins as a starter. But I will guess that when Mendoza hits the field, his rookie numbers might be better than Ward’s second-year numbers.
—Ian Allan
