I probably could have picked a better title for the week's column. I didn't mean "remember Stafford's back" like "Hey, don't forget about Matt Stafford, last year's MVP. He's primed for another good year."
I meant "remember Stafford's back" like "Hey, remember how the preseason talk last year was how his back injury could limit him, and he fell in a lot of drafts? Somebody in your league picked up a real bargain because they didn't let preseason injury talk overshadow a player's potential once the games counted." In other words, remember that lesson when evaluating players on draft day.
Preseason is a weird time. I won't get into my nearly-annual criticism of the pretend games that can hurt fantasy managers who put too much stock in them. But as misleading as those "stats" can be, we're seeing a similar issue with injury discussions in August. Christian McCaffrey missed some practice time recently with what was described as soreness (If everybody could miss work due to soreness I'd be on disability). Of course there was talk about the tread on his tires and the caution managers should take when dealing with a guy who can't even practice regularly in 2026.
Then McCaffrey tells the media that the plan all along was to have him work hard, take time off and then come back to the practice field. So were the 49ers lying about McCaffrey being sore because it always part of the plan? It doesn't matter either way if you passed on him. You can't get that pick back. McCaffrey's age and injury history were already baked into his ADP. This missed time looks like it was basically nothing (and possibly even planned) and it might have caused a drop his perceived value anyway. That's the downside of giving too much weight to what injuries keep a player off the field in August.
Mike Evans can't seem to finish a practice with his new team. But Evans has historically been a very tough player who is on the field whenever possible. Is he really breaking down before week 1, or is San Francisco protecting their investment? Is Egbuka really "day to day, week to week" with his toe injury, or are the Buccaneers just managing their starter until the games count? We don't know for sure, but we do know that coaches are liars and we shouldn't let vague injury comments affect draft position.
Imagine drafting right around when the recent Ashton Jeanty news broke. We didn’t know much except that he couldn’t put weight on his leg and there were prayers on the field. Later we learned it was “just” an ankle sprain. Was it high, low, or somewhere in between? Nobody is saying. But if you drafted that evening, somebody might have gotten a real steal, and someone might have overpaid for Mike Washington. Or maybe not. We don’t know right now. Some folks might have even taken a lowball offer and traded away a top pick while in a panic. Overreacting to preseason injury news is almost a fantasy football tradition, and I think you’re better off breaking it.
Now for the caveats: Malik Nabers just shed his red no-contact jersey. He's clearly not in the "he's fine, it's just taking it easy before week 1" camp. He avoided the PUP list and he's close to practicing normally. But he's not 100 percent, and if the season started in October the team might have let him wear red a little longer. And the odds of Jeanty being perfectly healthy in week 1 is awfully low. Those are real concerns for fantasy starters.
So sometimes the injury concern is real, and coaches aren’t playing games. And sometimes, like with Jeanty, we simply don’t have enough information and have to make educated guesses. But keep in mind that the big injury stories in August often turn out to be overblown by the time September rolls around. Guys who can’t stay on the practice field somehow are good to go for week 1. Don’t ignore the information, but don’t give it too much weight, either. With nothing but pretend games to evaluate, we tend to do the latter. Good luck on draft day.
Do preseason injury statuses provide concern, or opportunity? How much stock do you put into missed practices? What players are going to be fine in week 1, and which ones are true question marks? How many games (if any) do you think Jeanty will miss to start the season? Share your thoughts below.
