Fantasy Index

Factoid

First-round running backs

Early picks tend to hit the ground running

Jeremiyah Love will definitely be selected in the top 10 picks tonight; maybe top 5. I've seen some speculation that another Notre Dame back, Jadarian Price, will also be selected late in the first round. Fantasy coaches can rejoice if so.

When teams select running backs in the first round, they don't tend to spend much time easing them in. In fact, the odds favor those players emerging as top-25 (or better) players at the position right away.

In the last 20 years, there have been 37 running backs drafted in the first round. Twenty of those players finished in the top 25 (PPR) at the position in their rookie seasons. A third of them (12) ranked in the top 10. So when people are falling all over themselves to select Love in the second round of fantasy drafts this summer, there's a lot of support for the idea that he'll earn that pick.

FIRST-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2006-2025)
YearPkPlayerRunNoRecTDRk
20182Saquon Barkley, NYG130791721152
20164Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.163132363162
201231Doug Martin, T.B.145449472122
202124Najee Harris, Pitt.120074467103
20077Adrian Peterson, Min.134119268135
20238Bijan Robinson, Atl.9765848788
20123Trent Richardson, Cle.95051367128
20178Christian McCaffrey, Car.4358065179
201510Todd Gurley, St.L.110621188109
20062Reggie Bush, N.O.5658874299
202312Jahmyr Gibbs, Det.945523161110
20174Leonard Fournette, Jac.1040363021010
20256Ashton Jeanty, L.V.975553461011
200824Chris Johnson, Ten.1228432601011
200630Joseph Addai, Ind.108140325813
200712Marshawn Lynch, Buff.111518184716
200912Knowshon Moreno, Den.94728213918
201030Jahvid Best, Det.55558487620
201924Josh Jacobs, Oak.115020166721
202032Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.80336297522
200621Laurence Maroney, N.E.74522194727
201012Ryan Mathews, S.D.67822145731
200813Jonathan Stewart, Car.8368471033
201831Sony Michel, N.E.931750634
202522Omarion Hampton, LAC54532192535
200931Beanie Wells, Ari.79312143737
200627DeAngelo Williams, Car.50133313239
20084Darren McFadden, Oak.49929285442
201515Melvin Gordon, S.D.64133192045
201128Mark Ingram, N.O.4741146546
201232David Wilson, NYG358434651
20109C.J. Spiller, Buff.28324157255
200927Donald Brown, Ind.28111169360
201827Rashaad Penny, Sea.419975268
200822Felix Jones, Dall.266210475
200823Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.582170128
202125Travis Etienne, Jac.0000999

At the risk of stating the obvious, Love is a great prospect. Nice size (6-0, 212), speed (4.36), elite college performance (6.9 yards per attempt each of the last two seasons, with 40 touchdowns those years), decisive first step. Again obvious: the first pick in every rookie draft.

Some mocks have the Cardinals drafting Love at 3rd overall. It's hard to understand the rationale, with the team signing Tyler Allegeier and still having Trey Benson and James Conner on the roster. I understand that Love is a special talent. But what would the point be in giving Allgeier a contract with $8 million guaranteed and bringing back Conner at all to make such a move? Teams do stupid things, and I suppose some could make the argument that passing on a talent like Love would be stupid. But it would make Arizona's previous moves even stupider. There's only one football.

If Love goes at No. 3, I think it'd be because a team trades up to get ahead of the Titans (who would probably love to select him at 4) or the Giants (who might not be able to resist at 5). But whatever, everyone has opinions. I didn't think the Falcons would draft Michael Penix at 8 after signing Kirk Cousins, and that worked out pretty great for them.

Bottom line, Love is going early, and he's probably going to put up top-20 numbers right away. At least.

--Andy Richardson

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