Jeremiyah Love will definitely be selected in the top 10 picks tonight; maybe top 5. I've seen some speculation that another Notre Dame back, Jadarian Price, will also be selected late in the first round. Fantasy coaches can rejoice if so.
When teams select running backs in the first round, they don't tend to spend much time easing them in. In fact, the odds favor those players emerging as top-25 (or better) players at the position right away.
In the last 20 years, there have been 37 running backs drafted in the first round. Twenty of those players finished in the top 25 (PPR) at the position in their rookie seasons. A third of them (12) ranked in the top 10. So when people are falling all over themselves to select Love in the second round of fantasy drafts this summer, there's a lot of support for the idea that he'll earn that pick.
| FIRST-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2006-2025) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2018 | 2 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1307 | 91 | 721 | 15 | 2 |
| 2016 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1631 | 32 | 363 | 16 | 2 |
| 2012 | 31 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454 | 49 | 472 | 12 | 2 |
| 2021 | 24 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1200 | 74 | 467 | 10 | 3 |
| 2007 | 7 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 1341 | 19 | 268 | 13 | 5 |
| 2023 | 8 | Bijan Robinson, Atl. | 976 | 58 | 487 | 8 | 8 |
| 2012 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 950 | 51 | 367 | 12 | 8 |
| 2017 | 8 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 435 | 80 | 651 | 7 | 9 |
| 2015 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1106 | 21 | 188 | 10 | 9 |
| 2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 565 | 88 | 742 | 9 | 9 |
| 2023 | 12 | Jahmyr Gibbs, Det. | 945 | 52 | 316 | 11 | 10 |
| 2017 | 4 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1040 | 36 | 302 | 10 | 10 |
| 2025 | 6 | Ashton Jeanty, L.V. | 975 | 55 | 346 | 10 | 11 |
| 2008 | 24 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1228 | 43 | 260 | 10 | 11 |
| 2006 | 30 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1081 | 40 | 325 | 8 | 13 |
| 2007 | 12 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1115 | 18 | 184 | 7 | 16 |
| 2009 | 12 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 947 | 28 | 213 | 9 | 18 |
| 2010 | 30 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 555 | 58 | 487 | 6 | 20 |
| 2019 | 24 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 1150 | 20 | 166 | 7 | 21 |
| 2020 | 32 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 803 | 36 | 297 | 5 | 22 |
| 2006 | 21 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 745 | 22 | 194 | 7 | 27 |
| 2010 | 12 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 678 | 22 | 145 | 7 | 31 |
| 2008 | 13 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 836 | 8 | 47 | 10 | 33 |
| 2018 | 31 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 931 | 7 | 50 | 6 | 34 |
| 2025 | 22 | Omarion Hampton, LAC | 545 | 32 | 192 | 5 | 35 |
| 2009 | 31 | Beanie Wells, Ari. | 793 | 12 | 143 | 7 | 37 |
| 2006 | 27 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 501 | 33 | 313 | 2 | 39 |
| 2008 | 4 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 499 | 29 | 285 | 4 | 42 |
| 2015 | 15 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 641 | 33 | 192 | 0 | 45 |
| 2011 | 28 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 474 | 11 | 46 | 5 | 46 |
| 2012 | 32 | David Wilson, NYG | 358 | 4 | 34 | 6 | 51 |
| 2010 | 9 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 283 | 24 | 157 | 2 | 55 |
| 2009 | 27 | Donald Brown, Ind. | 281 | 11 | 169 | 3 | 60 |
| 2018 | 27 | Rashaad Penny, Sea. | 419 | 9 | 75 | 2 | 68 |
| 2008 | 22 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 266 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 75 |
| 2008 | 23 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 58 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 128 |
| 2021 | 25 | Travis Etienne, Jac. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 999 |
At the risk of stating the obvious, Love is a great prospect. Nice size (6-0, 212), speed (4.36), elite college performance (6.9 yards per attempt each of the last two seasons, with 40 touchdowns those years), decisive first step. Again obvious: the first pick in every rookie draft.
Some mocks have the Cardinals drafting Love at 3rd overall. It's hard to understand the rationale, with the team signing Tyler Allegeier and still having Trey Benson and James Conner on the roster. I understand that Love is a special talent. But what would the point be in giving Allgeier a contract with $8 million guaranteed and bringing back Conner at all to make such a move? Teams do stupid things, and I suppose some could make the argument that passing on a talent like Love would be stupid. But it would make Arizona's previous moves even stupider. There's only one football.
If Love goes at No. 3, I think it'd be because a team trades up to get ahead of the Titans (who would probably love to select him at 4) or the Giants (who might not be able to resist at 5). But whatever, everyone has opinions. I didn't think the Falcons would draft Michael Penix at 8 after signing Kirk Cousins, and that worked out pretty great for them.
Bottom line, Love is going early, and he's probably going to put up top-20 numbers right away. At least.
--Andy Richardson

