Arizona’s decision to pick Jeremiyah Love third overall was surprising in that it already has other serviceable running back options. And also in light of the trend of teams not wanting to pay running backs.
There are exceptions here and there. The Eagles got excellent value out of Saquon Barkley a year ago, riding him to a Super Bowl. Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry also successfully moved to new teams that year. But most teams nowadays try to get by without committing big money to the position.
The Seahawks, as Exhibit A, won a Super Bowl with Kenneth Walker but chose to let him walk in free agency.
Teams like having running backs on cost-controlled rookie contracts, and teams like using a committee approach at the position, making them better equipped to handle injuries.
The decline of running backs is reflected in the franchise tag numbers (the average of the top 5 at the position). It’s only $14.3 currently for running backs, which is only 21 percent more than it was 10 years ago. In the same time period, the franchise tag amount for quarterbacks has increased by 120 percent.
There are 10 other franchise tag amounts, in fact, and they’ve all grown by over twice the rate of running backs in the last 10 years. All but three positions have grown by over 3 times as much as running backs.
Ten years ago, as an example, the best tight ends were averaging $2.6 million less per year than running backs. Now, tight ends have passed running backs. Their contracts have increase by 65 percent since 2016.
The salary cap has almost doubled in the last 10 years, but running backs haven’t gotten in on that as much as the other positions.
| FRANCHISE TAG AMOUNTS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | 2016 | 2026 | Diff |
| QB | $19.95 | $43.90 | 120% |
| LB | $14.13 | $26.87 | 90% |
| OL | $13.71 | $25.77 | 88% |
| WR | $14.60 | $27.30 | 87% |
| S | $10.81 | $20.15 | 86% |
| DT | $15.70 | $27.13 | 73% |
| TE | $9.12 | $15.04 | 65% |
| DE | $15.70 | $24.43 | 56% |
| CB | $13.95 | $21.16 | 52% |
| ST | $4.57 | $6.65 | 45% |
| RB | $11.79 | $14.29 | 21% |
| Cap | $155.27 | $301.20 | 94% |
All of which makes the decision to pick Love suspect. Carnell Tate and Arvell Reese went with the next two choices, and both play positions that are dramatically more expensive to fill via free agency. If all of those players live up to expectations, Tate and Reese will sign second contracts that average about twice as much per year.
The fit is particularly weird for the Cardinals, with them being a rebuilding team with other competent players at the position. They signed Tyler Allgeier to a two-year deal worth $12.3 million, and they still have holdovers James Conner and Trey Benson.
Arizona is one of only two teams with two running backs having contracts averaging over $6 million (the other being the Saints, who would probably like to part with Alvin Kamara).
Fantasy football, of course, is a different animal. Love will be the first rookie chosen in drafts. But the market indicates Arizona probably will regret picking Love that early.
—Ian Allan
