Looking at the overall draft board. I think Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs will be the top 2 picks in most drafts. After that, it's on to one of the elite wideouts: Puka, Ja'Marr, Jaxon, Amon-Ra (pictured). But a case can be made for going wide receiver with one of those top 2 picks, particularly in PPR formats.
With the running backs, there's a greater risk of injury, or perhaps disappointing for some other reason. Wide receivers can also get hurt or disappoint, of course, but the track record of those guys running it back with elite numbers again looks really good.
I looked at wide receivers who finished with top 5 numbers (PPR) over the past 20 years. Not including the five who just did it -- the four guys mentioned above, plus George Pickens -- that's 95 top-5 seasons from 2006-2024.
Of those 95 guys, About a third of them (31) came back to finish in the top 5 again one year later. Almost half (45) at least finished in the top 10, and three-quarters (70) at least finished in the top 25. That latter figure isn't what you're going for when you select a wide receiver in the top 5, I understand, but when the likely worst-case scenario is still getting a top-25 wideout -- and about a 50-50 shot of drafting a guy who finishes in the top 10 -- it makes it awfully attractive to just draft that wide receiver.
Next week I'll run the numbers on top 5 running backs, but I'm pretty confident it's not going to be nearly as favorable.
Table shows wide receivers finishing with top-5 numbers in PPR leagues in the last 20 years, plus their numbers and rankings one year later, sorted by that subsequent finish.
| TOP-5 WIDE RECEIVERS, ONE YEAR LATER (2006-2025) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec-Yards-TD | Rk | Next | Rk |
| 2008 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 115-1575-8 | 1 | 101-1569-9 | 1 |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 96-1681-16 | 1 | 122-1964-5 | 1 |
| 2012 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 94-1434-10 | 5 | 92-1430-14 | 1 |
| 2013 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 110-1499-9 | 2 | 129-1698-14 | 1 |
| 2014 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 129-1698-14 | 1 | 136-1834-11 | 1 |
| 2015 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 136-1834-11 | 1 | 106-1284-12 | 1 |
| 2017 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 96-1378-13 | 1 | 115-1572-11 | 1 |
| 2021 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 108-1616-10 | 4 | 128-1809-9 | 1 |
| 2006 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 86-1310-9 | 3 | 104-1510-10 | 2 |
| 2007 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 100-1409-10 | 5 | 96-1431-12 | 2 |
| 2013 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 92-1430-14 | 1 | 111-1619-11 | 2 |
| 2014 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 98-1519-13 | 3 | 97-1257-14 | 2 |
| 2016 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 106-1284-12 | 1 | 101-1533-9 | 2 |
| 2020 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 115-1374-18 | 1 | 123-1553-11 | 2 |
| 2022 | Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 119-1710-9 | 2 | 119-1799-13 | 2 |
| 2023 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 119-1515-10 | 3 | 115-1263-12 | 2 |
| 2006 | Terrell Owens, Dall. | 85-1180-13 | 2 | 81-1355-15 | 3 |
| 2009 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 100-1264-10 | 3 | 111-1355-6 | 3 |
| 2018 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 113-1677-8 | 3 | 99-1394-6 | 3 |
| 2021 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 123-1553-11 | 2 | 100-1516-14 | 3 |
| 2024 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 115-1263-12 | 2 | 117-1401-11 | 3 |
| 2012 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 97-1350-11 | 4 | 98-1426-11 | 4 |
| 2015 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 96-1450-13 | 5 | 101-1367-10 | 4 |
| 2018 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 115-1572-11 | 1 | 104-1165-7 | 4 |
| 2019 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 104-1165-7 | 4 | 115-1407-6 | 4 |
| 2024 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 127-1708-17 | 1 | 125-1412-8 | 4 |
| 2008 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 96-1431-12 | 2 | 97-1092-13 | 5 |
| 2010 | Roddy White, Atl. | 115-1389-10 | 1 | 100-1296-8 | 5 |
| 2012 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 118-1508-11 | 2 | 100-1295-12 | 5 |
| 2017 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 101-1533-9 | 2 | 104-1297-15 | 5 |
| 2022 | A.J. Brown, Phil. | 88-1496-11 | 5 | 106-1456-7 | 5 |
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 122-1964-5 | 1 | 84-1492-12 | 6 |
| 2015 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 136-1871-9 | 2 | 83-1409-6 | 6 |
| 2020 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 87-1276-17 | 2 | 111-1239-9 | 6 |
| 2008 | Brandon Marshall, Den. | 104-1265-6 | 5 | 101-1120-10 | 7 |
| 2009 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 101-1569-9 | 1 | 86-1216-8 | 7 |
| 2011 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 122-1569-9 | 2 | 118-1354-6 | 7 |
| 2012 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 92-1382-12 | 3 | 93-1233-13 | 7 |
| 2020 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 127-1535-8 | 3 | 103-1225-10 | 7 |
| 2023 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 135-1749-14 | 1 | 101-1194-6 | 8 |
| 2008 | Roddy White, Atl. | 88-1382-7 | 4 | 85-1153-11 | 9 |
| 2022 | Stefon Diggs, Buff. | 108-1429-11 | 4 | 107-1183-8 | 9 |
| 2011 | Roddy White, Atl. | 100-1296-8 | 5 | 92-1351-7 | 10 |
| 2014 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 111-1619-11 | 2 | 105-1304-6 | 10 |
| 2022 | Davante Adams, L.V. | 100-1516-14 | 3 | 103-1144-8 | 10 |
| 2006 | Torry Holt, St.L. | 93-1188-10 | 4 | 93-1189-7 | 11 |
| 2007 | Terrell Owens, Dall. | 81-1355-15 | 3 | 69-1052-10 | 11 |
| 2009 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 97-1092-13 | 5 | 90-1137-6 | 11 |
| 2021 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 81-1455-13 | 5 | 87-1046-9 | 11 |
| 2007 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 98-1493-23 | 1 | 69-1008-11 | 12 |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen, LAC | 102-1393-7 | 3 | 97-1196-6 | 12 |
| 2007 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 104-1510-10 | 2 | 82-1145-6 | 13 |
| 2010 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 72-1162-15 | 4 | 81-1159-5 | 14 |
| 2011 | Victor Cruz, NYG | 82-1536-9 | 3 | 86-1092-10 | 14 |
| 2016 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 96-1321-12 | 3 | 71-1001-5 | 17 |
| 2009 | Wes Welker, N.E. | 123-1348-4 | 4 | 86-848-7 | 18 |
| 2010 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 76-1265-12 | 5 | 67-949-9 | 18 |
| 2014 | Emmanuel Sanders, Den. | 101-1404-9 | 5 | 76-1135-6 | 18 |
| 2017 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 112-987-9 | 4 | 81-976-5 | 18 |
| 2023 | Tyreek Hill, Mia. | 119-1799-13 | 2 | 81-959-6 | 18 |
| 2024 | Drake London, Atl. | 100-1271-9 | 5 | 68-919-7 | 18 |
| 2023 | A.J. Brown, Phil. | 106-1456-7 | 5 | 67-1079-7 | 20 |
| 2024 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 103-1533-10 | 3 | 84-1048-2 | 21 |
| 2008 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 78-1331-12 | 3 | 67-984-5 | 22 |
| 2006 | Donald Driver, G.B. | 92-1295-8 | 5 | 82-1048-2 | 23 |
| 2018 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 111-1386-13 | 4 | 83-997-5 | 23 |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 145-1947-16 | 1 | 75-812-7 | 23 |
| 2010 | Brandon Lloyd, Den. | 77-1448-11 | 2 | 70-966-5 | 24 |
| 2013 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 98-1426-11 | 4 | 69-1041-6 | 24 |
| 2010 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 111-1355-6 | 3 | 75-960-4 | 25 |
| 2017 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ari. | 109-1156-6 | 5 | 69-734-6 | 26 |
| 2019 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 94-1161-10 | 5 | 92-974-3 | 26 |
| 2023 | Puka Nacua, LAR | 105-1486-6 | 4 | 79-990-4 | 26 |
| 2016 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 91-1448-6 | 5 | 57-966-4 | 27 |
| 2015 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 111-1521-11 | 4 | 78-954-4 | 29 |
| 2019 | Chris Godwin, T.B. | 86-1333-9 | 2 | 65-840-7 | 31 |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 128-1809-9 | 1 | 68-1074-5 | 32 |
| 2018 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 87-1479-14 | 2 | 58-860-7 | 33 |
| 2007 | Braylon Edwards, Cle. | 80-1289-16 | 4 | 55-873-3 | 34 |
| 2013 | Brandon Marshall, Chi. | 100-1295-12 | 5 | 61-721-8 | 34 |
| 2021 | Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 77-1405-14 | 3 | 56-632-5 | 36 |
| 2011 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 68-1263-15 | 4 | 49-745-7 | 37 |
| 2024 | Brian Thomas, Jac. | 87-1282-10 | 4 | 48-707-3 | 42 |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 97-1257-14 | 2 | 53-482-6 | 46 |
| 2020 | DeAndre Hopkins, Ari. | 115-1407-6 | 4 | 42-572-8 | 46 |
| 2015 | Brandon Marshall, NYJ | 109-1502-14 | 3 | 59-788-3 | 49 |
| 2019 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 99-1394-6 | 3 | 51-771-3 | 52 |
| 2009 | Randy Moss, N.E. | 83-1264-13 | 2 | 28-393-5 | 75 |
| 2014 | Dez Bryant, Dall. | 88-1320-16 | 4 | 31-401-3 | 81 |
| 2016 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 101-1367-10 | 4 | 25-302-3 | 84 |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 149-1725-9 | 1 | 40-438-0 | 95 |
| 2006 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 95-1366-12 | 1 | 20-247-1 | 103 |
| 2013 | Josh Gordon, Cle. | 87-1646-9 | 3 | 24-303-0 | 103 |
| 2020 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 90-1374-9 | 5 | 31-281-2 | 103 |
| 2018 | Antonio Brown, Pitt. | 104-1297-15 | 5 | 4-56-1 | 154 |
| 2025 | Puka Nacua, LAR | 129-1715-11 | 1 | ?-?-? | ? |
| 2025 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 119-1793-10 | 2 | ?-?-? | ? |
| 2025 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 117-1401-11 | 3 | ?-?-? | ? |
| 2025 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 125-1412-8 | 4 | ?-?-? | ? |
| 2025 | George Pickens, Dall. | 93-1429-9 | 5 | ?-?-? | ? |
Scanning the 8-10 guys who performed the worst a year later, most of them got injured. Antonio Brown had his emotional meltdown, Calvin Ridley had his off-field/gambling issues. Marvin Harrison was 36 years old.
But the volume of guys who came back and either put up top-10 numbers or at least were solid WR1s or WR2s in typical leagues is pretty encouraging. If you miss out on one of the top 2 running backs, you're probably going to be pretty happy with Ja'Marr, Jaxon, Puka or Amon-Ra. Maybe Pickens, too.
--Andy Richardson
