Story time: Growing up, my grandma cooked three meals a day without ever really knowing just how many she would actually be feeding (Happy 94th, Arlene!). As you might imagine, this meant her refrigerator was a near endless menagerie of leftover odds and ends that she would try to get used some other way, some other day.
Fantasy analysis can be kind of like Arlene's fridge. In the course of whipping up hot and fresh articles, rankings and insight you wind up with some leftover kernels that never quite wind up amounting to some standalone thing. When my grandma became inundated with too many leftovers at once, one of her signature "medley feasts" was soon to follow.
In that spirit, with mandatory team activities imminent I present you all with my fantasy medley of 2026.
Quarterbacks
- Unsurprisingly, Josh Allen led all qualifiers in fantasy points per dropback last year with 0.69. The top FP/DB rate over the last two years, removing all playing time qualifiers? Malik Willis, 0.94. That is a completely galactic, unsustainable number — the best number by a full-time starter this decade was Jalen Hurts' 0.71 in 2022 — but still a mildly interesting one. The second highest this decade: Justin Fields' 0.70, also in 2022.
- Speaking of this extremely obscure metric, veteran Marcus Mariota put up a rock-solid 0.52 FP/DB last year, slotting him in between Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams. This wasn't all scrambling either: Mariota threw downfield more aggressively than any other quarterback to start a game last year (10.93 ADOT). Back once again to caddy for the starter on an offense with bounce back potential, were Daniels to miss more time Mariota might be a fine streaming option.
- Drake Maye averaged over 8.9 yards per attempt last year, the biggest number since Purdy dropped 9.6 on us in 2023. Impressive, but not nearly as impressive as Maye's +9.1 completion percentage over expected. Not only did that number almost double up the guy who finished 2nd (there's that Purdy guy again) — it's the biggest number ever charted by Next Gen Stats.
- The worst CPOE +/- of 2025 by a likely Week 1 starter: Caleb Williams (by a lot), -6.9.
- The largest pressure-to-sack rate year-over-year improvement by a full-time starter in the pressure data era? Caleb Williams (also by a lot), 30% in 2024 to 10% in '25.
- Maye also led the league with 0.26 EPA/play, as expected. The 2nd place finisher? Not Stafford, not Allen — but Jordan Love (0.24).
- Five quarterbacks were charted with >25 EPA as a runner last year. Of those five, the most efficient runner? Baker Mayfield, whose 35.72 charted rushing EPA was only 8 percent lower than the league leader (Josh Allen) despite a scramble rate that was over 25 percent lower.
- Trevor Lawrence posted career highs in rushing yards and TDs last year, enabling his white hot, league-winning finish. Another veteran QB also set new highs on both those fronts: Patrick Mahomes (422 yards, 5 TDs).
- After leading the league in QB rushing EPA as a rookie (57.47), among quarterbacks to scramble over 9 percent of the time Jayden Daniels posted by far the worst efficiency in the league (2.7 EPA on a 15.57 percent scramble rate). For context, Tyrod Taylor and Joe Flacco were credited with 5.41 and 5.42, respectively.
- Among likely Week 1 starters, Cam Ward had the worst EPA/play in the league (-0.17). Forgiving him his inexperience, that honor would then go to Geno Smith (-0.14).
- Among plausible Week 1 starters, Shedeur Sanders (-0.23 EPA) was comfortably the bottom finisher in 2025. His average time to throw (3.07 seconds) was also the highest number the NFL has seen in the last four years. The previous highwater number? Deshaun Watson, who posted a 3.06 in 2022.
Running Backs
- Of running backs to handle big time volume, James Cook's 1.17 rushing yards over expected per attempt was the biggest number in the land. But of all qualifying runners, it was the less than speedy Rhamondre Stevenson that led the way (1.36 RYOE/att).
- Only two running backs have topped 1.00 in the RYOE metric in each of the last two seasons: Derrick Henry (1.77, 1.11) and Jordan Mason (1.38, 1.02).
- The 'Sample Size Too Small, Buuut...' award goes to Tank Bigsby, who managed to lead all running backs in both EPA (0.12) and yards after contact (3.16) per attempt among running backs with 50-plus attempts. Heading into his walk year, he's a player on the rise.
- Unsurprisingly, many of the players at the bottom in rush yards over expected were on teams with serious injury or performance issues on the offensive line: Michael Carter (-0.76), Bucky Irving (-0.74), Ashton Jeanty (-0.19). Two players that don't benefit from such cover stories: RJ Harvey (-0.64) and Christian McCaffrey (-0.54); they were comfortably the
worstleast efficient runners from playoff teams. - Adding to his rookie season demerits, NGS also charted Harvey with the league's worst north-south efficiency (4.85, indicating he traveled 4.85 yards on the football field for every 1 actual yard gained). Curiously, the second worst efficiency score: Tyler Allgeier.
- Speaking of Allgeier, his 2022 season for the Marcus Mariota-led Falcons saw him running against 8-man defensive fronts on a whopping 40 percent of his total carries. That makes him one of only two players in the last four seasons to face down heavy boxes at a higher clip than the 39.1 percent rate Derrick Henry just logged. The other: rookie Quinshon Judkins, who had 8-plus in the box on a staggering 45.2 percent of his totes. Brutal sledding.
- Renowned contact-seeker Cam Skattebo proved he had real tackle-breaking chops as a rookie: His 2.82 yards after contact per carry rated 5th-best in the league. Coming in at 3rd: Chris Rodriguez (3.04 YACO/att), only a hair behind Bijan Robinson (3.06).
- Hard to know what to make of 2025 for Rachaad White. On the one hand, his -0.22 rush yards over expected was one of NGS' worst numbers among qualifiers. On the other, the Bucs had a true MASH unit on the interior of their offensive line down the stretch, and White's poor efficiency was still far better than that of Irving. Further complicating his evaluation, White was charted with 0.9 EPA/rush attempt, the second-best number in the NFL. White has been an inefficient runner in the NFL to date, but the underlying data indicates he may not be as much the plodder as his counting stats in Tampa Bay strongly suggest. And, as Ian Allan has pointed out before, he's got the stickiest hands around: Leading all running backs in 2025 catch rate (95.2 percent of targets), White made it three years in a row topping 90 percent. Superb stuff.
- Oh, and the EPA top dog of 2025? Blake Corum, whose 0.11 EPA/rush pretty much lapped the qualifying field.
- The two backfields surrendering the largest shares of their goal line carries both have Kenneth Walker ties: With Zach Charbonnet likely shelved well into the regular season, a whopping 94 percent of Seattle's carries from inside the 5-yard line are potentially vacated. Behind them: Kansas City, 71.4 percent.
- Another premium offense also vacates major goal line work. David Montgomery took 61.5 percent of Detroit's goal line carries with him to Houston. Certainly Jahmyr Gibbs is staring at an uptick in carries near the stripe, but Isiah Pacheco (who logged zero such attempts for the 2025 Chiefs) would appear to be Johnny-on-the-spot.
- Bijan Robinson (22.1) and Christian McCaffrey (21.4) were the runaway leaders in team receiving yardage shares; no other running back topped 16 percent. But free agency has thrust some of the league's most productive receiving backs into the same backfields: Jaylen Warren (9.7 percent yardage share) and Rico Dowdle (9.0) give Pittsburgh a pair of reliable checkdown options.
- That pales in comparison to the new-look Bucs: Kenneth Gainwell (13.4 percent) and Bucky Irving (12.8) could breeze past 100 combined receptions this fall. Baker Mayfield should rebound sharply from last year's 8 percent drop in completion percentage.
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
- After coming up one win short against Seattle, the Patriots' courtship of Alec Pierce and acquisitions of Romeo Doubs and A.J. Brown made it clear that they wanted better downfield weapons for Drake Maye. Curious, then, that the 12.2 yards per target by Kayshon Boutte was the best mark in the NFL.
- In 2023, rookie Puka Nacua posted a blistering 2.56 yards per route run, the 8th-best number in the league. A rookie also placed 8th in 2024, Brian Thomas (2.44). Luther Burden (2.68) finished 3rd in YPRR last year.
- Some slight cheating here but indulge me: In 2025 only five receivers drew more than 0.29 targets per route run, and predictably all are superstars. The club was every bit as exclusive in 2024, but there was a bogey: Josh Downs, who now trades out target earner Michael Pittman for contested catch maestro Alec Pierce (who it turns out was secretly super not healthy!). I've never been a big proponent of his, but his bull case is getting awfully intriguing, awfully fast.
- While I'm at it on the cheating front: Next Gen Stats has a bizarro little metric called YAC Above Expectation; basically, how much more/less yards after the catch a receiver averages based on depth of target (shorter throws, higher expected YAC, longer ones the opposite). But it may as well be called The Deebo Samuel Factor. He dominated it for years in San Francisco, routinely posting numbers (way) over 3.5. Only two other qualifying players have done that this decade: Rookie season Ja'Marr Chase (4.4) — and rookie season Keon Coleman (3.5).
- Only two tight ends have topped 3.0 in YAC Above Expection this decade: 2024 Tucker Kraft (3.1) — and rookie season Chig Okonkwo (3.0).
- Most of us agree that Tucker Kraft was an emerging force last year before his season was cut short by injury. His 2.27 yards per route run was second-best among tight ends. But that was a distant second to Dalton Kincaid, whose 2.71 YPRR was the biggest number of any qualifier at the position in several years.
- Speaking of Kincaid, he finished in a four-way tie with TE1 finisher Trey McBride to lead the position in targets per route run (0.24). The other two: George Kittle and Harold Fannin.
- Darren Waller mostly justified Miami luring him out of retirement last year, but fellow flyer Greg Dulcich may have been even more impressive: 2.26 YPRR (3rd) and 0.22 targets per route run (t-6th). Miami wide receivers are expected to catch the fewest passes in the league.
- Certainly nobody is expecting either of Puka Nacua nor Jaxon Smith-Njigba to somehow eclipse the career years they just laid down, comfortably running away from the field as the top two receivers in fantasy. But it bears pointing out: 21 wide receivers ran more than 500 routes last year. JSN and Nacua were not among them.
- Three guys that were: Jerry Jeudy (593), Andrei Iosivas (553) and Elic Ayomanor (503), posting the lowest yards per route run in the cohort (1.02, 0.79, 1.02). Unsurprisingly, all three have rookies bearing down on them directly. Jeudy was already a sell and Iosivas a fade, but there are no shortage of Ayomanor believers waiting on a Year 2 leap. With Wan'Dale Robinson in town and Calvin Ridley healthy, Ayomanor expectations should probably be carefully managed.
- Of the top 10 route participants of 2025, only one changes teams: D.J. Moore, freeing up one of the largest participation shares (563 routes) in the league in Chicago.
- From Weeks 12 thru 17 last year, Kyle Pitts was fantasy's TE2. Prior to that he was the TE20. Michael Penix tore his ACL in Week 11, and Drake London missed Weeks 12-15. Do with these facts what thou will.
- Only two wide receivers in the NFL averaged more than 1.2 targets per game inside the opposing team's 10-yard line last year, and they both exceeded it by a lot: Davante Adams (1.64) — and Rashee Rice (1.63).
- Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 277 targets last year... and yet only 14 of them occurred inside the 10. Jake Ferguson had 13 such targets all by himself! Hopefully Burrow plays a full slate this year, but even if he doesn't both are still due for major positive mean regression, especially Chase.
—Luke Wilson

