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Can Burden be an animal?

Receiver looks to build on rookie season

Luther Burden has a groin injury that could sideline him into the regular season. But I’d be inclined to just go ahead and draft him anyway.

The Bears have an up-and-coming offense, with an emerging quarterback and one of the game’s best play callers. And Burden is going to be a key part of what they do – maybe the primary pass catcher.

A couple weeks back, Ben Johnson was comparing Burden to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Not that he’ll be quite that good, but they should be using him a lot.

Burden came on nicely at the end of his rookie season. In his final three games, he caught 18 of the 22 passes thrown his way, for 285 yards and a touchdown. Now they’ve traded away DJ Moore, ensuring they’ll be looking to Burden plenty.

Not that any of this is particularly surprising. Everyone is aware of Burden’s second-year potential. And with that in mind, the groin injury may end up being a bonus – giving you a better chance of landing him at a decent price tag.

But while we’re kicking around the possibility of Burden, let’s unpack some of the stats. Specifically, is there danger in reading too much into the small sample size of a hot finish to a rookie season? Is there danger in getting too optimistic about such guys?

On this one, I tossed out the last week of the regular season (with such games often involving players resting, polluting the stats). I looked instead at the last five other games, seeing which players were finishing strong.

In the last 10 years, only 17 wide receivers (including Burden) averaged at least 15 points (assuming PPR scoring) in their final five games. We can then look at how those guys performed the next year.

It didn’t play out well last year, with all four candidates underperforming relative to where they were drafted. Brian Thomas struggled in a new offense. Malik Nabers missed most of the year, but it didn’t look like he was going to shine anyway. Ladd McConkey didn’t pop. And Jalen McMillan got injured in the preseason.

But I see lots of hits with the other guys, with Johnson’s earlier candidate (St. Brown) leading the way.

Below are the top 50 rookie receivers of the last 10 years (based on per-game production in those final five games). Of the 50, eight finished with top-10 numbers the next season, and another 17 at least made the top 30. So for ballpark purposes, we might say it’s about 50-50 whether such candidates will be top-30 receivers. Stuff happens. Players get hurt or underperform.

Of these 50 promising candidates, 20 (a full 40 percent) ranked 50th or lower in their second year. That group includes Cooper Kupp (who got hurt) and Marvin Harrison, who simply underperformed.

ROOKIE RECEIVERS WHO CLOSED STRONG
YearPlayerRecYdsTDPPRRk(rookie close)
2025Brian Thomas, Jac.487073138.84238-490-5
2022Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.1061,1616267.6743-451-4
2022Ja'Marr Chase, Cin.871,0469246.41129-523-5
2025Ladd McConkey, LAC667896180.93028-356-3
2025Malik Nabers, NYG18271257.110237-469-3
2022Jaylen Waddle, Mia.751,3568261.2831-366-2
2021Justin Jefferson, Min.1081,61610332.8434-419-3
2020A.J. Brown, Ten.701,07512249.51121-481-4
2017Michael Thomas, N.O.1041,2455258.5626-300-3
2024Puka Nacua, LAR799904206.62628-521-2
2024Rashee Rice, K.C.24288264.910135-411-2
2018Keelan Cole, Jac.38491193.18121-472-3
2021Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.568265172.33525-302-2
2025Jalen McMillan, T.B.12178029.913821-267-6
2019Dante Pettis, S.F.11109234.713320-359-4
2026Luther Burden, Chi.?????22-322-1
2024Zay Flowers, Balt.741,0594209.52524-270-4
2018Cooper Kupp, LAR405666135.15124-388-2
2025Xavier Worthy, K.C.425321109.95931-285-2
2018JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.1111,4267298.9816-206-1
2020Terry McLaurin, Was.871,1184225.82023-353-2
2019Robert Foster, Buff.364012.316118-385-2
2020Darius Slayton, NYG507513143.05417-296-3
2021Tee Higgins, Cin.741,0916221.12324-279-2
2023Garrett Wilson, NYJ951,0423217.22625-386-0
2023Jahan Dotson, Was.495184124.85618-272-3
2023Drake London, Atl.699052174.63627-337-0
2017Malcolm Mitchell, N.E.000.0--21-208-3
2020Diontae Johnson, Pitt.889237223.82123-246-2
2023Rashid Shaheed, N.O.467196157.64219-343-1
2018Dede Westbrook, Jac.667176183.53023-295-1
2019Calvin Ridley, Atl.638667197.02720-257-2
2023Christian Watson, G.B.284225101.36918-264-2
2024Robbie Chosen, Mia.1501.521216-274-2
2021Laviska Shenault, Jac.636190129.05622-209-2
2024Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea.1001,1306253.41022-208-2
2025Marvin Harrison, Ari.416084127.85021-276-1
2021Gabe Davis, Buff.355496125.95814-217-3
2021CeeDee Lamb, Dall.791,1026232.81921-263-1
2019Courtland Sutton, Den.721,1126222.81918-220-2
2024Jordan Addison, Min.6387510212.52118-207-2
2020Deebo Samuel, S.F.33391180.79614-227-2
2023Chris Olave, N.O.871,1235231.31616-222-0
2021Collin Johnson, NYG11105021.515211-203-1
2020DK Metcalf, Sea.831,30310273.3717-224-1
2021Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cle.345973111.7638-221-1
2019DJ Moore, Car.871,1754232.51621-233-0
2024Quentin Johnston, LAC557118174.73915-224-1
2022DeVonta Smith, Phil.951,1967256.6915-211-1
2023George Pickens, Pitt.631,1405208.83013-219-1
2017Tyler Boyd, Cin.22225256.510419-215-0

—Ian Allan

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