Typically when a running back doesn’t do much early, he simply never amounts to much. But we have a couple of guys this year that make me believe this is a year that trend will be bucked.
Jonathon Brooks and MarShawn Lloyd have been plagued by injuries thus far, hardly playing in their first two seasons, but it’s looking to me like both will begin the year as second-string tailbacks. And given the attrition at the position, that probably means both will be starting some games.
Brooks is coming back from multiple ACL tears, but he seems to be healthy now, and Dave Canales was talking him up early in the camp. Chuba Hubbard is Carolina’s starter for now, but he was demoted into a backup role last year (when Rico Dowdle got hot).
The Panthers liked Brooks enough back in 2024 that they made him the first running back drafted (in the first half of the second round), even though he was coming back from a torn ACL.
Lloyd has played in only one game in his first two seasons with the Packers, plagued by a lengthy string of leg injuries – hip, hamstring, ankle, groin, calf. He also underwent an emergency appendectomy. So it’s tough to have any confidence he’ll last for long, should he ever become a starter.
But Lloyd is healthy now, and he’s been getting some reps with the first-unit offense (helped along by the two backs ahead of him on the depth chart being out with injuries right now). He showed up in the news this week after doing a backflip after a touchdown in practice (which Matt LeFleur wasn’t excited about, given Lloyd’s injury history).
Lloyd has supposedly spent a lot of time with trainers, trying to put together a plan that will keep him healthy. (That plan apparently doesn’t include avoiding stupid risks, like backflips at practice.)
But if we set aside the injury worries, Lloyd looks like an appealing prospect. Certainly, the situation is good. The Packers don’t have much else behind Josh Jacobs (who comes not only with injury risk but some possibility of a league suspension after a domestic violence incident in May). Their most notable other back is Chris Brooks, who was a third-stringer last year and was previously released by the Dolphins. (Green Bay didn’t re-sign Emanuel Wilson.
Lloyd is a thicker back, listed at 5-foot-9 and 220 pounds. I can envision a scenario where he starts some games, putting up solid numbers.
If we’re picking today, I would have some interest in using late-round picks on both Jonathon Brooks and Lloyd. I believe they’re going to open the season as the No. 2 backs on those teams, starting some games at some point. (I don’t much care about how much these guys might do in terms of change-of-pace work – I’m focused more on planning ahead for lineup changes.)
At the same time, it’s rare for a running back to not do much in his first two seasons, then develop into a viable player. In the 32-team era, 27 running backs have been chosen with top-100 picks and finished with fewer than 400 total yards in their first two seasons. Only two of the previous 25 ever ranked higher than 50th in fantasy production in a season (using PPR scoring): Christine Michael and Justin Fargas.
| SLOW STARTING RUNNING BACKS | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pk | G | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Best |
| 2004 | B.J. Askew, NYJ | 85 | 32 | 32 | 12 | 44 | 0 | 86 |
| 2004 | Musa Smith, Balt. | 77 | 20 | 79 | 31 | 110 | 2 | 53 |
| 2004 | Artose Pinner, Det. | 99 | 12 | 273 | 112 | 385 | 2 | 52 |
| 2004 | • Justin Fargas, Oak. | 96 | 22 | 329 | 70 | 399 | 1 | 24 |
| 2006 | Eric Shelton, Car. | 54 | 9 | 23 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 142 |
| 2006 | Ryan Moats, Phil. | 77 | 15 | 347 | 7 | 354 | 3 | 50 |
| 2007 | Kenny Irons, Cin. | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| 2007 | Brian Calhoun, Det. | 74 | 11 | 54 | 55 | 109 | 0 | 125 |
| 2007 | Michael Robinson, S.F. | 100 | 31 | 237 | 120 | 357 | 2 | 79 |
| 2008 | Chris Henry, Ten. | 50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 167 |
| 2008 | Tony Hunt, Phil. | 90 | 14 | 25 | 42 | 67 | 2 | 106 |
| 2008 | Garrett Wolfe, Chi. | 93 | 26 | 154 | 117 | 271 | 0 | 92 |
| 2009 | Glen Coffee, S.F. | 74 | 14 | 226 | 76 | 302 | 1 | 78 |
| 2009 | Jacob Hester, S.D. | 69 | 31 | 169 | 115 | 284 | 3 | 74 |
| 2011 | Montario Hardesty, Cle. | 59 | 10 | 266 | 122 | 388 | 0 | 74 |
| 2012 | Ryan Williams, Ari. | 38 | 5 | 164 | 44 | 208 | 0 | 101 |
| 2013 | LaMichael James, S.F. | 61 | 14 | 184 | 45 | 229 | 0 | 116 |
| 2013 | Isaiah Pead, St.L. | 50 | 25 | 75 | 94 | 169 | 0 | 108 |
| 2014 | Dri Archer, Pitt. | 97 | 12 | 40 | 23 | 63 | 0 | 124 |
| 2014 | • Christine Michael, Sea. | 62 | 14 | 254 | 12 | 266 | 0 | 35 |
| 2019 | Derrius Guice, Was. | 59 | 5 | 245 | 79 | 324 | 3 | 69 |
| 2021 | KeShawn Vaughn, T.B. | 76 | 22 | 289 | 60 | 349 | 3 | 90 |
| 2021 | Darrynton Evans, Ten. | 93 | 6 | 61 | 38 | 99 | 1 | 85 |
| 2022 | Trey Sermon, S.F. | 88 | 11 | 186 | 26 | 212 | 1 | 67 |
| 2023 | Tyrion Davis-Price, S.F. | 93 | 7 | 120 | 0 | 120 | 0 | 123 |
| 2024 | MarShawn Lloyd, G.B. | 88 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 127 |
| 2024 | Jonathon Brooks, Car. | 46 | 3 | 22 | 23 | 45 | 0 | 114 |
—Ian Allan
