Fantasy Index

Factoid

Tripping over the first hurdle

Early miss rate is higher than you might think

Do you go running back or wide receiver in the first round? With an early pick (or a high-priced buy in an auction), it’s always a strong first step to avoid blowing the selection on that keystone player.

It seems like it would be easy. You grab a player who was great last year – like JSN, Bijan, Jahmyr or Nacua – and you’re off to a good start. But there are more misses than you might expect, even with some of the seemingly safest choices on the board. Considering the two big charts below, which show how players putting up top-5 numbers faired in their next season. These tend to be the same players getting the most attention.

If we look at the last 50 running backs who’ve finished with top-5 numbers (using PPR scoring), only 12 of those guys -- less than a quarter - finished with top-5 numbers in the following season. Only 40 percent finished with top-10 stats.

Of that group of 50 running backs, 16 (almost a third) didn’t even finish with top-20 numbers, torpedoing a lot of fantasy seasons.

The numbers are similar with the wide receivers. Slightly more finished with top-5 numbers (16), but slightly more finished outside the top 20 as well. Just short of a third made that elite, top-5 level, while over 40 percent didn’t even make the top 20.

Be careful, it seems, about assuming anybody is a “safe bet” for big numbers. We all need to do a better job of recognizing that we don’t have all the answers.

In the charts below, guys finishing with top-5 stats are in bold. Guys finishing with numbers outside the top-20 are tagged with black dots. At both position, there are most guys finishing outside the top 20 than in the top 5. Stuff can go south.

TOP-5 RECEIVERS: THE NEXT SEASON
YearPlayerGNoYardsTDPPRRk
2016Antonio Brown, Pitt.151061,28412307.31
2016Odell Beckham, NYG161011,36710298.64
2016Julio Jones, Atl.14831,4096259.96
2016• DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.16789544197.429
2016• Brandon Marshall, NYJ15597883155.849
2017Antonio Brown, Pitt.141011,5339310.32
2017Mike Evans, T.B.15711,0015203.117
2017• T.Y. Hilton, Ind.16579664177.627
2017• Jordy Nelson, G.B.15534826137.246
2017• Odell Beckham, NYG425302374.084
2018DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.161151,57211337.51
2018Antonio Brown, Pitt.151041,29715323.75
2018Keenan Allen, LAC16971,1966262.112
2018Jarvis Landry, Cle.16819765219.818
2018• Larry Fitzgerald, Ari.16697346186.026
2019Julio Jones, Atl.15991,3946274.13
2019DeAndre Hopkins, Hou.151041,1657270.64
2019• Davante Adams, G.B.12839975214.723
2019• Tyreek Hill, K.C.12588607188.333
2019• Antonio Brown, N.E.1456116.1154
2020DeAndre Hopkins, Ari.161151,4076291.84
2020• Cooper Kupp, LAR15929743210.726
2020• Chris Godwin, T.B.12658407191.031
2020• Julio Jones, Atl.9517713146.152
2020• Michael Thomas, N.O.740438083.995
2021Davante Adams, G.B.161231,55311344.32
2021Tyreek Hill, K.C.171111,2399298.56
2021Stefon Diggs, Buff.171031,22510285.57
2021• DeAndre Hopkins, Ari.10425728147.246
2021• Calvin Ridley, Atl.531281271.1103
2022Justin Jefferson, Min.171281,8099369.01
2022Davante Adams, L.V.171001,51614335.53
2022Ja'Marr Chase, Cin.12871,0469246.411
2022• Cooper Kupp, LAR9758127203.423
2022• Deebo Samuel, S.F.13566325172.436
2023Tyreek Hill, Mia.161191,79913378.42
2023A.J. Brown, Phil.171061,4567293.65
2023Stefon Diggs, Buff.171071,1838275.89
2023Davante Adams, L.V.171031,1448265.410
2023• Justin Jefferson, Min.10681,0745204.232
2024Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.171151,26312318.32
2024CeeDee Lamb, Dall.151011,1946265.48
2024Tyreek Hill, Mia.17819596218.218
2024A.J. Brown, Phil.13671,0797216.920
2024• Puka Nacua, LAR11799904206.626
2025Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.171171,40111324.03
2025Ja'Marr Chase, Cin.161251,4128315.64
2025Drake London, Atl.12689197203.918
2025• Justin Jefferson, Min.17841,0482201.521
2025• Brian Thomas, Jac.14487073138.842
TOP-5 RUNNING BACKS: THE NEXT SEASON
YearPlayerGRunRecTotTDPPRRk
2016Devonta Freeman, Atl.161,0794621,54113286.16
2016• DeAngelo Williams, Pitt.93431184616100.149
2016• Doug Martin, T.B.8421134555387.555
2016• Danny Woodhead, S.D.211635151127.197
2016• Adrian Peterson, Min.372880011.0122
2017LeVeon Bell, Pitt.151,2916551,94611345.62
2017LeSean McCoy, Buff.161,1384481,5868265.67
2017Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.109832691,2529205.212
2017• DeMarco Murray, Ten.156592669257173.521
2017• David Johnson, Ari.1236790015.0110
2018Todd Gurley, LAR141,2515801,83121374.13
2018Alvin Kamara, N.O.158837091,59218354.24
2018Melvin Gordon, LAC128854901,37514275.58
2018Kareem Hunt, K.C.118243781,20214230.212
2018• LeVeon Bell, Pitt.00000.0---
2019Christian McCaffrey, Car.161,3871,0052,39219471.21
2019Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.161,3574201,77714315.73
2019Alvin Kamara, N.O.147975331,3306250.79
2019Saquon Barkley, NYG131,0034381,4418244.111
2019Todd Gurley, LAR158572071,06414223.414
2020Derrick Henry, Ten.162,0271142,14117337.13
2020Aaron Jones, G.B.141,1043551,45911258.95
2020Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.159793381,3178233.79
2020• Austin Ekeler, LAC105304039333165.327
2020• Christian McCaffrey, Car.3225149374690.454
2021Alvin Kamara, N.O.138984391,3379234.79
2021Aaron Jones, G.B.157993911,19010231.011
2021Dalvin Cook, Min.131,1592241,3836210.316
2021David Montgomery, Chi.138493011,1507199.019
2021• Derrick Henry, Ten.89371541,09110193.422
2022Austin Ekeler, LAC179157221,63718378.71
2022Joe Mixon, Cin.148144411,2559239.511
2022Najee Harris, Pitt.171,0342291,26310227.514
2022James Conner, Ari.137823001,0828202.219
2022• Jonathan Taylor, Ind.118611431,0044152.433
2023Christian McCaffrey, S.F.161,4595642,02321395.31
2023Derrick Henry, Ten.171,1672141,38112246.89
2023Saquon Barkley, NYG149622801,24210227.213
2023• Austin Ekeler, LAC146284361,0646193.424
2023• Josh Jacobs, L.V.138052961,1016183.127
2024Breece Hall, NYJ168764831,3598244.916
2024Rachaad White, T.B.166133931,0069205.620
2024• Travis Etienne, Jac.155582548122132.235
2024• Raheem Mostert, Mia.13278161439274.956
2024• Christian McCaffrey, S.F.4202146348049.869
2025Bijan Robinson, Atl.171,4788202,29811376.82
2025Jahmyr Gibbs, Det.171,2236161,83918368.93
2025DeVon Achane, Mia.161,3504881,83812322.85
2025Derrick Henry, Balt.171,5951501,74516285.57
2025Saquon Barkley, Phil.161,1402731,4139234.314

—Ian Allan

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