It's a pretty good class of wide receivers coming out of college this year, and accordingly, five were selected in last night's first round. That's pretty typical of late, as is perhaps one top performer (but more that need a little more time).
As recently as 2017-2019, there weren't a lot of exciting first-round prospects. In those three years, there were a total of seven players at the position selected in the first round, and results were disappointing. The seven: John Ross, Mike Williams, Corey Davis, DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley, Marquise Brown and N'Keal Harry. Three of those guys are still in the league, currently with their third or fourth teams.
But since 2020, there have been at least four wide receivers drafted in the first round every year, and five-plus four times. And multiple legitimate stars in all of those seasons where there's been enough time to say for sure (last couple of years are too early to call).
Rookie difference-makers, though, are relatively rare.
Collectively, there have been 32 wide receivers drafted in the first round since 2020. Six of them have put up top 20 numbers in PPR leagues in their rookie seasons; about one per year. Of the other 26, eight have at least finished in the top 30. The rest needed more time.
Table shows first-year numbers of first-round wideouts since 2020, sorted by ranking in PPR leagues. Among the guys who started off quietly (but have emerged as 1,000-yard wideouts) we've got Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zay Flowers, Jameson Williams and a couple of others. Unfortunately, a decent number of them have stayed pretty quiet.
| FIRST-ROUND WIDEOUTS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2020-2025) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | Rk |
| 2024 | 23 | Brian Thomas, Jac. | 133 | 87 | 1282 | 10 | 4 |
| 2021 | 5 | Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 128 | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 5 |
| 2024 | 6 | Malik Nabers, NYG | 170 | 109 | 1204 | 7 | 6 |
| 2020 | 22 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 125 | 88 | 1400 | 7 | 6 |
| 2021 | 6 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 140 | 104 | 1015 | 7 | 12 |
| 2025 | 8 | Tetairoa McMillan, Car. | 122 | 70 | 1014 | 7 | 15 |
| 2022 | 10 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 147 | 83 | 1103 | 4 | 21 |
| 2020 | 17 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 111 | 74 | 935 | 7 | 22 |
| 2025 | 19 | Emeka Egbuka, T.B. | 127 | 63 | 938 | 6 | 23 |
| 2023 | 23 | Jordan Addison, Min. | 108 | 70 | 911 | 10 | 23 |
| 2022 | 11 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 119 | 72 | 1042 | 4 | 24 |
| 2022 | 8 | Drake London, Atl. | 117 | 72 | 866 | 4 | 28 |
| 2024 | 4 | Marvin Harrison, Ari. | 116 | 62 | 885 | 8 | 30 |
| 2021 | 10 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 104 | 64 | 916 | 5 | 30 |
| 2023 | 22 | Zay Flowers, Balt. | 108 | 77 | 858 | 6 | 31 |
| 2024 | 28 | Xavier Worthy, K.C. | 98 | 59 | 638 | 9 | 33 |
| 2020 | 25 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 96 | 60 | 748 | 7 | 35 |
| 2020 | 15 | Jerry Jeudy, Den. | 113 | 52 | 856 | 3 | 45 |
| 2023 | 20 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 93 | 63 | 628 | 4 | 48 |
| 2024 | 9 | Rome Odunze, Chi. | 101 | 54 | 734 | 3 | 49 |
| 2022 | 16 | Jahan Dotson, Was. | 61 | 35 | 523 | 7 | 51 |
| 2024 | 32 | Xavier Legette, Car. | 84 | 49 | 497 | 4 | 61 |
| 2021 | 27 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 68 | 46 | 515 | 1 | 70 |
| 2023 | 21 | Quentin Johnston, LAC | 67 | 38 | 431 | 2 | 74 |
| 2022 | 18 | Treylon Burks, Ten. | 54 | 33 | 444 | 2 | 78 |
| 2024 | 31 | Ricky Pearsall, S.F. | 46 | 31 | 400 | 3 | 82 |
| 2025 | 23 | Matthew Golden, G.B. | 44 | 29 | 361 | 0 | 89 |
| 2021 | 20 | Kadarius Toney, NYG | 57 | 39 | 420 | 0 | 89 |
| 2020 | 12 | Henry Ruggs, L.V. | 43 | 26 | 452 | 2 | 89 |
| 2020 | 21 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 54 | 31 | 396 | 2 | 91 |
| 2025 | 2 | Travis Hunter, Jac. | 45 | 28 | 298 | 1 | 97 |
| 2022 | 12 | Jameson Williams, Det. | 9 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 158 |
Of the 32, I count 7 players for whom it's safe to say at this point, it's not going to happen for them. Bateman, Burks, Toney, Reagor; those guys definitely wouldn't be drafted in the first round again. Legette has struggled to this point, while Dotson has bounced around. I think people are familiar with Ruggs' story. A few others (Pearsall, Golden) it's too soon to say.
Last night Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson were selected in the top 10, and they're going to teams where they either could or should start right away. The Titans have Calvin Ridley and Wan'Dale Robinson, but Robinson will be in the slot and frankly Ridley seems to have played his best football and is coming off injury. Tate's Ohio State background is really encouraging. Tyson has something of an injury history but he also figures to start right away in a Saints passing game that was better than expected a year ago.
The other first-rounders also should be immediate starters, assuming things transpire as expected. Certainly the Jets, with nothing after Garrett Wilson, will be starting Omar Cooper quickly, and the Browns should fast-track KC Concepcion into the lineup. The Eagles have all but actually traded A.J. Brown away, so Makai Lemon will be in the mix for an immediate top-3 role, just needed to get past either Hollywood Brown or Dontayvion Wicks.
Recent history suggests one of these guys will show up in the top 15 to 20 as rookies. The rest, it might take a little longer.
--Andy Richardson
