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June 27, 2026

Instant-impact first-year receivers

Best rookie receiver could come out of the weeds

With rookie receivers, the tendency is to get overly optimistic about the guys going early in the draft. That’s fair. When the Titans and Saints selected Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson with top-10 picks, it was because they thought they were better than any of the other rookie receivers.

This is understandable of cross, and both landing in decent spots. Tate could or should in short order become Cam Ward’s favorite target. And I like Tyson; he’ll be starting for the Saints, in what was a sneaky good passing game last year. I remember Rashid Shaheed (as a No. 2 option) averaging 5 catches per game for the Saints last year before they dished him off to the Seahawks. The third rookie receiver selected, Makai Lemon, is also in a decent spot, with A.J. Brown gone.

But at the same time, 34 other wide receivers were selected in the draft. And history indicates that from that swarm of less-publicized options, there will be some hits. While some of the highly coveted guys are going to miss.

The big-data numbers suggest it’s one of those years where a more off-the-radar receiver will be making an impact. So a good year, I think, to be paying attention when a receiver is excelling in camp or starring in the preseason games. Puka Nacua (a fifth-round pick) was one of these guys a few years back – hinting that he might be good, then going out and doing it.

In the last 10 years, 39 wide receivers have finished with top-40 numbers in their first season. (That’s using PPR scoring.) Just over half of those guys weren’t selected in the first round.

In the chart below, players selected after the first round are tagged with black dots. Players selected after the second round are tagged with double dots.

Note that there are as many players selected after the second round (10) as they are who were selected with top-10 overall picks. So would it be that surprising if a receiver with little current pub outperforms Tate or Tyson? There are certainly plenty of candidates, with nine selected in the third round and another six selected in the fourth.

ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-40 NUMBERS
YearPlayerPkRunRecYdsTDPPRRk
2021Ja'Marr Chase, Cin.521811,45513306.65
2023•• Puka Nacua, LAR177891051,4866298.54
2024Brian Thomas, Jac.2348871,28210284.04
2020Justin Jefferson, Min.222881,4007274.26
2024Malik Nabers, NYG621091,2047273.66
2016• Michael Thomas, N.O.470921,1379259.77
2021Jaylen Waddle, Mia.631041,0157247.812
2024• Ladd McConkey, LAC340821,1497240.914
2021•• Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det.11261909126227.322
2023Jordan Addison, Min.2327091110221.323
2020CeeDee Lamb, Dall.1782749357219.722
2016•• Tyreek Hill, K.C.1652676159312219.018
2022Garrett Wilson, NYJ104831,1034217.721
2023• Jayden Reed, G.B.501196479310217.225
2019• A.J. Brown, Ten.5160521,0519217.122
2020• Chase Claypool, Pitt.49166287311216.923
2023• Rashee Rice, K.C.55-3799387214.527
2025Tetairoa McMillan, Car.80701,0147213.415
2018Calvin Ridley, Atl.26276482110208.820
2023Zay Flowers, Balt.2256778586206.431
2022Chris Olave, N.O.110721,0424202.224
2024Marvin Harrison, Ari.40628858198.530
2017• JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.620589178197.720
2020• Tee Higgins, Cin.3328679086196.628
2025Emeka Egbuka, T.B.199639386195.723
2019• DK Metcalf, Sea.6411589007193.129
2019•• Terry McLaurin, Was.760589197191.930
2019• Deebo Samuel, S.F.36159578026191.131
2021DeVonta Smith, Phil.100649165187.630
2024Xavier Worthy, K.C.28104596389187.233
2022Drake London, Atl.80728664184.628
2020Brandon Aiyuk, S.F.2577607487184.535
2016• Sterling Shepard, NYG4031656838184.436
2017•• Cooper Kupp, LAR690628695178.925
2019•• Darius Slayton, NYG1710487408170.037
2019•• Diontae Johnson, Pitt.6641596806167.139
2022• George Pickens, Pitt.5224528015166.540
2023•• Tank Dell, Hou.6951477097165.039
2018DJ Moore, Car.24172557882163.036

—Ian Allan

Carnell Tate Jordyn Tyson Makai Lemon
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