To me, Terrance Ferguson and Elijah Arroyo look like similar players. Both are tight ends of the pass-catching variety, and both are trying to win more playing time on powerhouse teams in the NFC West.
Neither of these second-round picks did much as rookies, but they do have teasing talent. Ferguson (pictured) caught only 11 passes as a rookie, but over half went for at least 27 yards (and with 3 TDs). Not many tight ends have that ability to get downfield.
Similarly, Arroyo caught only 15 passes, but with 4 going for at least 24 yards. He averaged 16.9 yards per catch his final season at Miami, with his 7 TDs helping Cam Ward win the Heisman. Arroyo was on the field for almost half of Seattle’s plays for the first half of last season before fizzling in to a lesser role (he missed the final five games entirely, with a knee injury).
Both are on teams with other tight ends who’ll probably see more playing time. The Seahawks have AJ Barner, who’s more of a traditional in-line tight end. Arroyo has a lot more ability to line up outside, potentially landing in some mismatches. Seattle should use plenty of sets with two tight ends, and they also have four wide receivers who should play plenty (JSN, Kupp, Shaheed and Tory Horton).
The Rams used more sets with multiple tight ends than any team in the league last year. Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen all caught at least 3 TDs last year, and they’re all coming back. And they added yet another tight end in the second round, Max Klare. But Ferguson has more ability to operate as a hybrid wide receiver than any of those guys. As meager as his role was last year, I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the possibility that he’s the third receiving option in that offense (after Puka Nacua and Davante Adams). The Rams don’t have a notable third wide receiver.
Of these two, I like Ferguson more. I think there’s far more potential for him to maybe be the third option in his offense, and that’s a team that will put up much better passing numbers than the Seahawks.
Admittedly, it will be tough to actually use a draft pick on either player. If we’re in a 12-team league and each is picking two tight ends, that’s only 24. I am not willing at this point to lock in on Ferguson being one of those 24 guys. But maybe. (I am comfortable today promising Arroyo won’t be one of my top 30 tight ends at the end of August).
To gauge the general likelihood of a big ascension, we can consider similar tight ends from the past. In the last 15 years, 26 other tight ends have been picked in the second round. Almost half of those tight ends at some point in their career put together a top-10 season (that’s using PPR scoring, and those 11 are tagged with black dots in the chart below).
More notably, however, only three of those players pulled off what Ferguson and Arroyo are attempting – outside the top 40 in production as a rookie, followed by top-10 greatness later on. Vance McDonald, Mike Gesicki and Cole Kmet; that’s what you’re hoping for.
Trey McBride made a huge move up after being just the No. 40 tight end as a rookie, but he was a far more promising candidate than either of these current guys – he had a 90-catch season at Colorado State and was buried behind Zach Ertz as a rookie, with a nice productive run at the end of his first season.
| SECOND-ROUND TIGHT ENDS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2011 | • Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 26 | 249 | 3 | 68.9 | 34 |
| 2011 | Lance Kendricks, St.L. | 28 | 352 | 0 | 62.4 | 37 |
| 2012 | • Coby Fleener, Ind. | 26 | 281 | 2 | 66.1 | 38 |
| 2013 | • Zach Ertz, Phil. | 36 | 469 | 4 | 106.9 | 23 |
| 2013 | •• Vance McDonald, S.F. | 8 | 119 | 0 | 19.9 | 62 |
| 2013 | Gavin Escobar, Dall. | 9 | 134 | 2 | 34.4 | 54 |
| 2014 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins, T.B. | 21 | 221 | 2 | 55.1 | 41 |
| 2014 | Jace Amaro, NYJ | 38 | 345 | 2 | 84.5 | 24 |
| 2014 | Troy Niklas, Ari. | 3 | 38 | 0 | 6.8 | 93 |
| 2015 | Maxx Williams, Balt. | 32 | 268 | 1 | 64.8 | 39 |
| 2016 | • Hunter Henry, S.D. | 36 | 478 | 8 | 131.8 | 18 |
| 2017 | Gerald Everett, LAR | 16 | 244 | 2 | 53.7 | 42 |
| 2017 | Adam Shaheen, Chi. | 12 | 127 | 3 | 42.7 | 49 |
| 2018 | • Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 33 | 334 | 4 | 90.4 | 20 |
| 2018 | •• Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 22 | 202 | 0 | 42.2 | 49 |
| 2019 | Irv Smith, Min. | 36 | 311 | 2 | 79.1 | 33 |
| 2019 | Drew Sample, Cin. | 5 | 30 | 0 | 8.0 | 92 |
| 2020 | •• Cole Kmet, Chi. | 28 | 243 | 2 | 64.0 | 42 |
| 2021 | • Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 60 | 497 | 7 | 153.7 | 13 |
| 2022 | • Trey McBride, Ari. | 29 | 265 | 1 | 61.5 | 40 |
| 2023 | • Sam LaPorta, Det. | 86 | 889 | 10 | 239.3 | 1 |
| 2023 | Brenton Strange, Jac. | 5 | 35 | 1 | 14.5 | 79 |
| 2023 | Luke Musgrave, G.B. | 34 | 352 | 1 | 75.2 | 31 |
| 2023 | Michael Mayer, L.V. | 27 | 304 | 2 | 71.4 | 35 |
| 2023 | Luke Schoonmaker, Dall. | 8 | 65 | 2 | 26.5 | 67 |
| 2024 | Ben Sinnott, Was. | 5 | 28 | 1 | 13.8 | 82 |
| 2025 | Mason Taylor, NYJ | 44 | 369 | 1 | 88.9 | 32 |
| 2025 | Terrance Ferguson, LAR | 11 | 231 | 3 | 52.1 | 52 |
| 2025 | Elijah Arroyo, Sea. | 15 | 179 | 1 | 38.9 | 58 |
—Ian Allan
