It's a little bit early to think about the NFL Draft. Or is it?
Mike Mayock has released his top 5 players at each position, which is always fun, and a nice warmup for the Combine (which starts February 23). There's some interesting stuff there, both in terms of who made the lists, and who didn't.
Obviously, it's pretty early; the rankings will change, and the player outlooks, in NFL and fantasy terms, will be greatly influenced not only by the Combine but also where they're drafted. And so will their careers. We tend to believe talent will always shine through, but there are exceptions to that. Perhaps Mark Ingram would be a far more significant NFL player had he not been selected by a team that already had 2 or 3 viable running backs that it liked to give plenty of snaps to. Perhaps.
A couple of comments on the rankings, and what Mayock has had to say in recent days.
- Mayock has West Virginia's Geno Smith as his top quarterback, and concedes that he's heard talk about Smith going No. 1 overall. He says he isn't sure there's a legitimate first-rounder in the draft, however, and calls it a "confusing" draft for quarterbacks.
What history tells us, though, is that a lot of quarterbacks who are described as late-first or second-round guys in January and February suddenly find themselves top-10 picks in April. Whether that's because perceptions change, because teams get desperate for a potential franchise passer, or because the initial projections by the media were simply way off base -- maybe a little of all three -- it happens every year. In all likelihood the quarterbacks perceived as second-rounders today will turn out to be first-rounders (maybe high first-rounders) a two months from now.
Eddie Lacy of Alabama is widely considered to be the draft's best running back, and may turn out to be the first one taken and only first-rounder. But he's not the only interesting running back or intriguing fantasy prospect. North Carolina's Giovani Bernard, South Carolina's Marcus Lattimore and Wisconsin's Montee Ball all merit early consideration. Lattimore is loaded with talent but tore his ACL in back to back seasons and is iffy to even play in 2013; he has far more dynasty appeal than he does in re-draft leagues. Montee Ball put up big numbers at Wisconsin, but is he an elite talent? Ron Dayne was a fine player for the Badgers, too? Landing spot could mean a lot for these runners.
As seems to be the case quite a bit in recent years, the wide receiver class looks strong, with some potentially elite prospects. Mayock said his "jaw dropped" when he saw tape on Cordarrelle Patterson out of Tennessee. Big and fast, Patterson is a playmaker who's the only receiver or runner who appears certain to be a top-10 pick, and will be in the mix to be the first rookie selected in dynasty drafts. In college Patterson scored touchdowns as a receiver, runner and on punt and kick returns.
But Patterson isn't the only quality wideout available. Cal's Keenan Allen and Clemson's DeAndre Hopkins -- the latter of whom didn't make Mayock's list -- could also be selected early. Smallish Tavon Austin out of West Virginia has drawn some comparisons to Steve Smith, due of course to his size but also his playmaking ability. There weren't any rookie receivers who put up big numbers last year, but maybe there will be another A.J. Green or Julio Jones in this group.
- Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert, in some order, are the top two tight ends by most rankings, including Mayock's. Their pedigree (Stanford and Notre Dame, respectively) looks like a positive, as Notre Dame's Kyle Rudolph has worked out nicely, and Stanford's Coby Fleener could be one of this year's 2nd-year breakouts.
It's early. Still, it's fun to look at Mayock's list, as some of these players will no doubt be among the first rookies drafted in redraft leagues, and the first-rounders in dynasty drafts.