We're a week into NFL free agency, and most of the big names have signed on with new teams. It may be early to think overly about value in re-draft leagues, but those with dynasty teams can start thinking about players who are up, or down. I'll take a look at the AFC today, and the NFC later in the week.
Baltimore: Anquan Boldin is gone, so somebody will need to step in across from Torrey Smith (whose value increases a little as the team will look to him as its No. 1). I'm not a believer in Jacoby Jones, at least as a reliable No. 2; he had his chances in Houston. So I'm looking at Tandon Doss, a possession receiver who I liked a lot coming out of college, as the correct dynasty stash; he may be available in many leagues. Dennis Pitta should also see more targets.
Buffalo: Ryan Fitzpatrick is gone, so Buffalo will have a new starting quarterback. I seriously doubt it will be Tarvaris Jackson; not in Week 1, and not for very long in the event he enters the season with that job. The big question is who the team's other receivers will be after Stevie Johnson; second-year wideout T.J. Graham looks like the correct flier. With Scott Chandler coming off a late-season torn ACL, there will be a new starting tight end, most likely.
Cincinnati: Mohamed Sanu or Marvin Jones? One of these second-year wideouts will be the No. 2 across from A.J. Green. Both had shots at the job last year, both suffered injury setbacks which prevented them from truly locking down the job. Cincinnati probably won't sign or draft anyone to move ahead of these guys, and I don't think they should; both are talented young receivers. Sanu looks like the somewhat safer play, Jones the more daring youngster; more upside. Both should be on dynasty rosters.
Cleveland: The Browns have yet to add any noteworthy skill position players, which is good news for incumbents Jordan Cameron at tight end, Brandon Weeden at quarterback, and wideouts Josh Gordon and Greg Little. Frankly, I think Weeden gets a little too much criticism; was his rookie year really that bad? Are they going to draft yet another quarterback with an early pick? I love Gordon in dynasty, and think Little had a strong second half; Cameron should be the No. 1 tight end. I understand the Browns failing to fully endorse Weeden as The Guy, but there's not so much available in free agency or the draft that they shouldn't just back him for 2013 and then revisit a year from now if necessary. Which is what I suspect will happen.
Denver: Signing Wes Welker is a positive for the Broncos' Super Bowl chances, and for Peyton Manning's fantasy value, but that's about all I have to say that's good. It's bad for Welker, who to me is the clear No. 3 receiver after Thomas and Decker. Was Brandon Stokley startable in fantasy leagues last year? Welker's not going to post better numbers, or comparable ones, as he did in New England unless one of the wideouts ahead of him gets hurt. I don't think he affects Thomas, but maybe he hurts Decker a little (and if he outplays him in the preseason, he hurts him a lot). It's awful news for Jacob Tamme, whose value relies on the team using more sets with 2 TEs and fewer with 3 WRs (which should be more common this year than last). Bad for Welker, bad for Tamme, maybe a negative for Decker. Don't like it.
Houston: Kudos to the Texans for dumping Kevin Walter, but who's the No. 2? At present, it's Lestar Jean, who drew Andre Johnson comparisons (from the team) last preseason, but maybe it will be second-year wideout Keshawn Martin (the other second-year guy, DeVier Posey, is coming off a torn Achilles). Jean is the guy I'd be picking up in dynasty, if he weren't already on a roster in my league. Second tight end Garrett Graham is another guy who should be rostered. Owen Daniels is the true No. 2 receiver here.
Indianapolis: So Robert Irsay tweeted this weekend that the Colts were pursuing a wide receiver, leading to crazy speculation it was Greg Jennings (no) or Victor Cruz (no). Most likely it will be a lesser name, like Seattle's Doug Baldwin; maybe it will be Davone Bess. Whoever it is might turn out to be more reliable than up and down Donnie Avery, but really it's T.Y. Hilton who stands to explode next season.
Jacksonville: The Jaguars have added Justin Forsett, who looked pretty good in Seattle way back when. He should immediately be the No. 2 behind Maurice Jones-Drew, who can safely be called something of a risky starter given the injuries and contract squabbles of recent years. They've got two nice wideouts, and two unappealing quarterbacks, at present. And maybe they'll sign Tim Tebow when the Jets release him; I don't care if the GM claims to have no interest.
Kansas City: The quarterback play should be better. Jamaal Charles looks more appealing. The new No. 2 appears to be Donnie Avery, but his checkered injury history has me keeping some interest in Jon Baldwin, who I'd argue has been held back by the quarterbacking. I'm not buying Dexter McCluster as a reliable No. 3 receiver, either. No great interest in these players after Bowe and Charles.
Miami: I love the Dustin Keller signing. Ian will confirm I've long liked Keller a little more than I should, perhaps, but since Miami has overpaid three wideouts, I think they'll end up relying on Keller more than they'd like. Wallace should be OK, but I'm not confident his value increases with Tannehill compared to Ben Roethlisberger. Brian Hartline, I don't really understand that contract, while Brandon Gibson is just a warm-body No. 3, who will be a functional starter when either Wallace or Hartline gets hurt. Keller's the guy I like here. Oh yeah, losing Jake Long doesn't look like a positive for the offense, either new starter at RB Lamar Miller, or Tannehill's protection (which will also work against Wallace).
New England: Danny Amendola and Donald Jones are in, Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd are out. I love Amendola here; he is more of a downfield guy than Welker and should be very productive. Yes, he's had trouble staying healthy the last couple of years, but I like him anyway. Should put up very good numbers. Jones also has some sleeper value; kind of think the Bills should have hung onto him. This being the Patriots, their "No. 2" wide receiver is really the fourth or fifth option in the passing game, so expectations should be modest, but most will probably forget him entirely, so there's some flier potential here. Aaron Hernandez, of course, looks great with Welker gone. Pats haven't re-signed Julian Edelman; his return affects Jones and the offense somewhat. At running back, Leon Washington joins as kick returner, and it won't be surprising if he gets some chances replacing Danny Woodhead as the third-down back (that's right, I'm not as high on Shane Vereen as some will be). Washington is getting up there in years, but he's like 5 years younger than Kevin Faulk was in that role at the end of his career. I expect New England's backfield to be a risky place to invest yet again (that includes Stevan Ridley, since Brandon Bolden could be a factor).
N.Y. Jets: Mike Goodson at running back, Jeff Cumberland (for now) at tight end, and whoever they end up signing/drafting at wide receiver. Goodson will probably start -- more talent than Bilal Powell -- but durability is a question mark. The quarterbacks are awful; debatable whether adding Kevin Kolb would make them better or worse. The Jets are a joke right now and I have no desire to pile on, but let's just say I don't see any sleeper value in the passing game, which has gotten worse (remarkably) since the end of the season.
Oakland: Looks like the Raiders will bring back Carson Palmer, which is good news for the offense. Cutting Darrius Heyward-Bey is good news for the young wideouts -- Denarius Moore, Rod Streater (a personal favorite) and Juron Criner. Losing tight end Brandon Myers should also mean more work for those wide receivers. Oakland has nothing else at tight end so maybe they'll use a high draft pick there.
Pittsburgh: Conflicting reports over the weekend as to whether Emmanuel Sanders signed an offer sheet with the Patriots. Seems like he didn't, but he still might sign somewhere. Pittsburgh desperately needs to retain him; the idea of Jerricho Cotchery or Plaxico Burress as the No. 2 is alarming. Antonio Brown's value is up regardless. Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman are the current candidates to start at running back. They'll probably add someone (Ahmad Bradshaw? Eddie Lacy?).
San Diego: Chargers gave Danario Alexander a low tender. They need to bring him back. There's some rebuilding going on here, but Alexander should be a part of it. They've added Danny Woodhead and resigned Ronnie Brown, meaning Ryan Mathews won't be a workhorse (and it's tough to blame them for not counting on him).
Tennessee: Titans gave Shonn Greene kind of a lot of money for a backup. He looks like an insurance policy, and he'll probably eat into Chris Johnson's workload. Not that Greene is good, but Johnson doesn't have quite as much right to be handed a full-time job as he did two years ago. Value down. Titans replace Jared Cook with Delanie Walker. They didn't use Cook enough, so I'm not overly optimistic about what they'll do with Walker. Kendall Wright looks like your 2013 breakout.