Is it time to trade Ray Rice? Breakout players for 2013. How to handle waiver-wire claims -- and get into the Experts Poll in the magazine.
Question 1
Ian: I would like your opinion on two players, Ray Rice and Pierre Garcon. Rice is currently on my team and I am thinking of trading him due to cap reasons. My question is what is equal value in return, be it WR or RB? Garcon is a player that I have a chance to trade for but before I do I would like to hear your thoughts regarding his upside. If RG3 is healthy next year I think the sky is the limit. Your thoughts.
JOHN SHELBROCK (FRANKENMUTH, MI)
I like the idea of trading Ray Rice. Hes had four really good years, but hes now played his best ball. They started using Bernard Pierce more during the second half of last year. Not that Pierce is going to steal that job or anything, but Rice isnt the full-time back hes been in the past. Its a committee situation now. So now could be the perfect time to dish him off. Sell high. The key, of course, is finding that running back hungry owner who thinks that Rice is still a top-4 running back. If you can find that owner, then you can work a deal. If everybody feels that Rice is nothing more than a top-10 back, then it wont happen. I havent scouted Garcon yet. I havent given that team the thorough examination, so Im kind of shooting from the hip. But Ill guess that he winds up as about the 15th wide receiver on my board. Hes the go-to option there. He missed about half of last year and still finished with 44 catches for 633 yards and 4 TDs.
Question 2
Been a big fan for almost 20 years and wrote you snail mail letter back in 1997 regarding my passion for fantasy football and career advice. If there was a Mt. Rushmore for Fantasy Football, I believe you should be on there. My one question is regarding the Experts Draft and if there is or already was a contest to enter it as a possible non-expert entry?
eric gustitus (EXETER, PA)
Thank you for your kind words. Theyre very much appreciated. There is a framework for regular guys to get into our various high-profile contests most notably the Experts Poll and the Mock Draft. There are two different ways to play your way in. No. 1 is the Fantasy Index Open. Its just like the Experts Poll, but its open to everyone. Send in your top 20 at each position before the July 1 deadline, and we score all the entries. The winner (Sam Hendricks last year) gets a big trophy from the team at <ahref="http://www.fantasysportsawards.com/" target=_new>Affordable Trophies. And the top 2 finishers win spots in our competition one in the Experts Poll and the other in the Mock Draft. Similarly, weve got the Fantasy Index Super League that runs through the season. The top 2 finishers in that also win spots. Ill post more info on the Fantasy Index Open in June.
Question 3
Like many fantasy football leagues, our league requires owners to make roster changes before the start of the first game of the week. However, starting last year with the advent of so many additional Thursday games, owners had to make player choices many times before injury reports from NFL teams came out (on Friday or Saturday). Do you see this as an important enough issue for fantasy leagues to address? And if so, what do you think is the fairest manner to handle the situation? We are considering having two roster deadlines. One for teams involved in Thursday night games and the second for the rest of the teams.
RON KNIGHT (SHAWNEE MSN, KS)
It changes the game, but I dont think its a big deal. Teams dont declare players as probable, questionable, doubtful or out until Friday, but you can generally see where things are headed. There are the preliminary listings on Wednesday and Thursday, so you know if a guy practiced or not. Probably every other week theres some kind of surprise on Friday, but it doesnt seem to cause any problems. In our league, we have a Wednesday night deadline for waivers. If you want to bid (its an auction) on a player, you submit that by 10 pm on Wednesday night. Players are assigned at that point. From then on (Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday morning), its first-come, first-serve on players. Every team is free to sign and release players for the minimum salary. Any players who get cut cant be picked up until the following week. Similarly, any players who are signed cant be released until the next week. That system seemed to work fine in our league last year.
Question 4
Now that the season is over, my PPR league enters its bidding on free agents mode. Who, next year, is most likely to out-perform their perceived value at this time? I'm referring to players headed toward a break-out season, injured players who will bounce back, second-stringers that will be the starter next year, etc. Thank you so much.
JOHN BENNETT (CHINO, CA)
Im doing my initial scouting work on teams right now. I spend a full day on each team, looking at each player in depth. Offensive system, past production, per-game production, goal-line and short-yardage trends, age, injuries, role. Everything theyre all pieces of the puzzle. Ive done about a third of the teams so far. So for those teams, here are some names of guys I feel could tend to be undervalued in fantasy drafts. For Arizona, Rashard Mendenhall, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. For Baltimore, maybe Dennis Pitta and Bernard Pierce. For Chicago, Alshon Jeffery. For Kansas City, I like Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles. On the Giants, Im looking at David Wilson, Andre Brown and Rueben Randle. Robert Turbin of Seattle. And maybe Kendall Wright of Tennessee. Again, these are the best players on those teams; theyre the players I think will be drafted too low relative to what theyre worth.