Interpreting injury reports. Are "factoids" useful? Keeper advice. Upside of Andy Dalton.
Question 1
I am a long-time reader and fan of the in-depth research that you do and share. I was wondering if you have any data or opinions in regard to "active" players producing normally regardless of their questionable or even doubtful status leading up to the game? It seems that once a player is ruled as active for a given week that they are ready to produce like normal. Thank you for all the shared knowledge.
PAUL KUCHAR (HANOVER PARK, IL)
I have done studies on this a couple of times in the past. I dont have those handy, unfortunately, but I do vaguely recall the results. I looked at guys who were viable fantasy options who had been listed at some point during year on the injury report. (So, if a player was healthy all year, he wasnt in the study.) For that group, I remember concluding that for players listed as doubtful, its rare for them to play. For guys listed as probable, they almost always played, and there tended to be very little difference in their production. Questionable, though, was the most interesting area. As I recall, there were a good number of those guys who didnt play or didnt start. And I also recall that when a questionable player did play, the numbers tended to be not quite as good not by a huge amount, but there was a step down. That could be tied to missed practice time and the injury and such. In general, I think the rule with a questionable player is that you should try to avoid starting him unless youre confident hell play, and expectations should be lowered a little. If youve got a healthy player whos 80 percent as good as a questionable guy, probably best to start him.
Question 2
I enjoy your Factoids -- thank you!! I wonder, though, if those factoids are correlative much more than causative or predictive. In other words, do you look at the facts that you post as one factor leading to another (and therefore HIGHLY useful) or as one factor that correlates to another (and therefore more food-for-thought than necessarily instructive)?
Moishe Steigmann (MAMARONECK, NY)
They vary. Some factoids are designed to illustrate some point. For example, maybe theres a list showing that of the last 50 running backs selected in the fourth round, not a one has ever really amounted to anything. Thats a reminder that the batting average on those kinds of backs is really low that you shouldnt get too excited about so-and-so. With that kind situation, it means to me that maybe I should wait before I see this fourth-rounder in question do something of note in a preseason game Ive got to see something with my own eyes before he moves too high on my board. Other Factoids are more just of the heres an interesting coincidence type. All four of the wide receivers selected in the first round by the Jaguars, for example, have had problems with drugs or alcohol. That doesnt mean, however, that when they select Marquise Lee in the first round of next years draft, hell be any more likely to become one of those guys. The Factoids arent a big part of what we do. We spend our real time putting together the magazine and researching/producing for the various reports that go out in the preseason and during the year. Normally with the Factoid, I take a little snippet out of that work and present on the website as a stand-alone idea.
Question 3
Dynasty rankings. It would be nice to have PPR rankings a vast majority of leagues seem to be using PPR now a days. I play in several high stakes dynasty leagues ($500 - $750 entry per year) and they all use PPR rankings. This is one thing I would really like to see either your dynasty rankings change to use PPR or have two lists ... also I have been asking for over 5 years now and I will ask again it be nice to have a top 25 overall list...yes I know picks always depend on team needs but you should be able to have a top 25 list based on talent.
Henry Muto (GENEVA, OH)
I dont know how many leagues are using PPR vs. not. Ill check with the tech guys here and see if they can call up the download numbers on the different cheat sheets. And I can check with the guys who run the league software sites like Real Time Fantasy Sports. They run thousands of leagues, so theyll be able to say whether the vast majority are using PPR or not. If they confirm that everyones playing with PPR scoring, then well change that on our dynasty cheat sheet next year. But whatever, thats not really important. For overall rankings, you can get into positional issues as well. If youre starting three wide receivers (rather than just two) that will tend to push the wide receivers up the board. For all of these kind of issues, its probably best to have you consult the rankings we put up, then come back at me in the mailbag with any additional questions. You can lay out your leagues exact rules and your teams exact situation, and well handle it that way. Fair enough?
Question 4
Now that the draft has transpired I'd like to hear your take on some of highlights to me. It is a little weird how every good tight end was taken by a team who already have good or great starters (Philly,Dallas,Cincy). How does that effect their value? Is Leveon Bell the best rookie RB to draft now? Im a lifelong Bills fan and was very surprised by the Manuel pick. Will he be a starter come week one? The read option might be pretty potent with him and Spiller. Can he have a Vick-like impact his first year? Finally Tavon Austin is he just another DeSean Jackson or is his game higher dimensional?
David Kennedy (STEAMBURG, NY)
Tavon Austin, to me, is the best of the rookies by far. He looks really explosive. Physically, hes really similar to DeSean Jackson, but his game is more like Percy Harvins. I think hell be the focal point of the St. Louis passing game. Maybe he catches 70-80 passes, runs for 100-200 yards and scores on a kick return. Ive got two teams so far (one in the Mock Auction in the magazine, and one in the Fanex FAD draft) and Ive got Austin in both of them. Tight ends. With the success the Patriots have had, I think more teams are trying to use the Gronk-Hernandez approach. They want two. Colts did it last year, drafting Fleener and Allen. I think the Bengals are trying to do the exact same thing with Gersham and Eifert. Eagles will definitely use two; theyve got Casey, Ertz and Celek. In Dallas, I think Escobar is probably intended to be more of a long-term replacement for Witten. I expect Manuel will start immediately definitely by October. I wouldnt compare him, though, to Michael Vick. Vicks an elite runner. Manuel has only above-average accuracy; they drafted him for his arm talent, not his mobility. For rookie running backs, I see like difference between the first three draft Bernard, Bell and Ball.
Question 5
I was wondering if you're doing the Fantasy Index Open again this year? I want to put a bit more time into it this year. Last year I caught on to it late, didn't have as much time and completely left Roddy White out of the WR rankings.
Miguel Tames (MIAMI, FL)
Yes. Fantasy Index Open is on. Picks will be due later this year any time prior to the kickoff of the first preseason game. For those who are unfamiliar with it, the Fantasy Index Open is just like the Experts Poll, but its open to everyone. You provide a top 20 at each position. We score them all and send out results in January. To request an entry form, send an email to fantasyindexopen@gmail.com
Question 6
In one of my leagues I have Eli Manning and Andy Dalton as my 2 QBs. I am stacked at every other position. Is there a sleeper QB such as Ryan Tannehill who you think may break out this year? This is a pt per reception dynasty league and we can keep 10 players.
JOHN SHELBROCK (FRANKENMUTH, MI)
I think you already have the sleeper quarterback: Dalton. I think hell be very good as in maybe top 10. Both Dalton and Manning look like top 10-5 guys to me. No need to take a flyer on a guy like Tannehill. I think youll be good with the Manning-Dalton combo.
Question 7
I know that it is early but I have pick 1.10 in a pt per reception dynasty league. I am seriously thinking about drafting either Marcus Lattimore or Christine Michael with this pick. I know about the two torn ACL's but Gore will be 30 this year. With regards to Michael, he is a really talented head case that will be behind M Lynch. In this league we can keep 20 players, therefore, the pickings are really slim.
JOHN SHELBROCK (FRANKENMUTH, MI)
Youre in a crappy spot. Would be nice to get one of the following: Bernard, Bell, Ball, Lacy, Austin, Hopkins. Thats six guys. Theyll all be gone when your turn comes around. For now, I suggest you sit tight and watch the other rookies closely. Maybe theres an Alfred Morris type guy out there. Not that any rookie is going to run for 1,600 yards, but somebody who dramatically increases in value in the next two months. Eiferts on that list. Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Robert Woods and all the other receivers from the second to fourth rounds. Maybe Stepfan Taylor or Andre Ellington in Arizona. Right now, Im not excited about either Lattimore or Michael, but theyre in the mix too. With Lattimore, theyve also got two other good runners there. With Seattle, theyve got Robert Turbin.
Question 8
After over 20 years, our league is switching to a keeper this season. Our system is this: You can keep up to 3 players, but where you drafted them determines what they cost you as a keeper, minus one. So a 5th rounder would cost you a 4th round pick the following year, a 10th round pick one season costs a 9th round pick the next year. All free agents are considered 12th round picks for this purpose. With this system, NO first round picks can be kept. Knowing this, how would you adjust your draft strategy? Thanks!
DAVE AMSBAUGH (WEST CHESTER, OH)
During the draft, I would keep in mind that it would be very advantageous to select a good player in the later rounds. If you can hit on somebody in rounds 8-12, that will be the guy youll want to keep the next year. So I would be more willing in that part of the draft to select a young pass catcher or running backs DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Eifert, etc. If you draft Tavon Austin in the 6th round, hell almost certainly be a keeper for 2014 and 2015.
Question 9
I always love guys with high upside, real difference makers. Back in the day I had such a man-crush on Fred Taylor that one year when his name was called for auction, all the owners instinctively looked at me. My latest man-crush is Kenny Britt. I read somewhere, possibly here, that when he is totally focused and healthy that he could be a top 3 receiver, another Terrell Owens. I still have him on my radar and I'm wondering if he should be?
James COSTELLO ( PORTLAND, ME)
Hes not in my top 40. Too many knee problems and off-field problems. Now, weve all read the stuff about how hes focused and healthy now, but thats still a lesser offense. Hes still catching passes from Jake Locker. Is he (Britt) even the No. 1 receiver on that team? Id rather have Kendall Wright (whos also not in my top 40).
Question 10
Keeper quandary: we're allowed to keep two in a 0.5-PPR league that rewards diamonds in the rough. I've got one slam dunk keeper (Randall Cobb for a 15th rounder), but am struggling mightily on the other. My options are as follows: Albert Morris for a 15th, Victor Cruz for a 9th, Julio Jones for a 6th. Morris seems like the pick, but he concerns me because a drop in Griffin's running could keep defenses more keyed on the middle of the field, and Morris isn't a particularly special runner. Nor will he catch passes. Do I pull the trigger on him and expect around 1,400 and 10 scores? Or do I stay studly at WR with one of those two bargains?
Justin Howe (NEWPORT, TN)
Relative to the keeper cost, Morris is a no-brainer in my opinion. In the sixth round, you might get a receiver whos in the same ballpark as Jones (think Tavon Austin, Steve Smith and Mike Williams, who all went in the 7th round of the Fanex Analysis Draft). Youre not going to get a running back anywhere close to half as good as Morris in the 15th.
Question 11
How does Fantasy Football Index plan to celebrate their 20th year! Congratulations! Best fantasy football magazine period! What about a nostalgic 20th year cover? (Emmitt Smith Barry Sanders?) Regardless of whos on the cover, can't wait for July 1st.
DOUG BOWLES (LEAWOOD, KS)
Thanks for the kind words. I hadnt thought about this being the 20th year. We added the word Index in the mid-90s, but we actually started publishing the magazine in 1987. The original issues were titled simply Fantasy Football 87, Fantasy Football 88, etc.