Do you believe in the sophomore slump? Or do players instead tend to get better in their second year (having the benefit of offseason camps, knowing the offense better, adjusting to the speed of the pro game and whatnot)?
It's a timely question this year because three running backs come off great rookie seasons. Doug Martin, Alfred Morris and Trent Richardson. Should we all be targeting those guys? Or avoiding them?
I always like to look at the past numbers in these kind of situations. Not that they necessarily reveal the truth, but they provide us some feedback. They show how things turned out in similar situations in the past.
For this one, I pulled out the top 20 rookie running backs of the last 30 years. I left Jamal Lewis and Robert Edwards out, since they both got hurt long before the start of their second seasons.
Of the 20 backs I've listed, only four came back the next season and finished with more yards (run-rec) and more touchdowns. Only six of the 20 (30 percent) finished with better fantasy stats.
As a whole, about half of the guys were pretty good. Half gained at least 1,500 total yards, and 11 (one more than half) scored double-digit touchdowns.
If I were a betting man, therefore, I'd say it's a safe bet that at least one of our three backs (Morris, Martin, Richardson) will fall well short of expectations. But that's the nature of the running back position, where injuries are common.
This same chart is listed at the Facebook page, and it's prettier there, with some colors worked in.
On this chart, the rookie numbers on the left (and I've got them in declining order, with Eric Dickerson having posted the best overall numbers using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards). To the right of each player's name is his production in his second year.
Two players got hurt very early in Year No. 2 (Curt Warner, Ickey Woods). And Mike Anderson became a backup (with Terrell Davis returning from an injury). For the Herschel Walker stats, I adjust his second year numbers up to account for the player strike in 1987 - he played in only 12 games.
MOST PRODUCTIVE ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS
Yds TD Points Year
2212 20 341.2 1983 Eric Dickerson (2244-14-308.4)
2139 17 315.9 1999 Edgerrin James (2303-18-338.3)
1872 17 289.2 2002 Clinton Portis (1905-14-274.5)
1644 17 266.4 1998 Fred Taylor (815-6-117.5)
1748 15 264.8 1995 Curtis Martin (1485-17-250.5)
1926 12 264.6 2012 Doug Martin
1774 14 261.4 1983 Curt Warner (59-0-5.9)
1752 14 259.2 1989 Barry Sanders (1784-16-274.4)
1656 15 255.6 2000 Mike Anderson (724-4-96.4)
1804 12 252.4 1994 Marshall Faulk (1553-14-239.3)
1690 13 247.0 2012 Alfred Morris
1715 12 243.5 2008 Matt Forte (1400-4-164.0)
1574 14 241.4 1986 Herschel Walker (2141-10-278.1)
1609 13 238.9 2007 Adrian Peterson (1885-10-248.5)
1377 16 233.7 2006 Maurice Jones-Drew (1175-10-177.5)
1659 10 225.9 2008 Steve Slaton (854-7-127.4)
1603 10 220.3 2001 LaDainian Tomlinson (2172-15-307.2)
1265 15 216.5 1988 Ickey Woods (94-2-21.4)
1673 7 209.3 1993 Jerome Bettis (1318-4-155.8)
1488 10 208.8 2008 Chris Johnson (2509-16-346.9)
1317 12 203.7 2012 Trent Richardson
1550 8 203.0 1996 Eddie George (1443-7-186.3)
1388 10 198.8 1997 Corey Dillon (1308-5-160.8)
^aEUR"Ian Allan
Ian Allan
April 08, 2013