Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Whatever happened to Deebo Samuel? Players who finished hot at the end of the season. Home vs. Away quarterbacks. 2025 keepers, and more.
Question 1
Probably my biggest regret this season is keeping Deebo Samuel instead of Mike Evans. Watching the 49ers-Lions game, it’s clear Deebo is now a bit player in the SF offense: 4 touches. Pearsall, Kittle and Jennings each had at least 8 targets; Deebo had one, and that was really a forward handoff. Yeah, he scored, but it was a fluke. What’s the deal with Deebo? Is he hurt? Has he lost his mojo? Was his one good game in Week 16 at mirage? Has Shanahan soured on him? Looking for answers.
Eric Pryne (Vashon, WA)
I’m not sure. He wasn’t fully healthy at times, showing up on the injury report with calf, wrist and oblique injuries. He was briefly hospitalized with pneumonia in October. So I was wondering if he was playing hurt at times. But they had him returning kickoffs in a bunch of games, which I don’t think would have happened if they didn’t feel like he was plenty healthy enough. The other possibility, I think, is that his physical, high-contact playing style has made him a quick ager. He’s 29, and he takes more punishment than a typical wide receiver. Or maybe he was just undermined by the issues with the team in general. There were a few games where he looked just fine. He caught a long touchdown at Seattle, and he caught 15 passes for 206 yards in the games against the Vikings and Dolphins.
Question 2
Which guys had the best numbers during the last 5 weeks that may carry over into next year?
Matt Morse (Glennallen, AK)
Using PPR scoring, 31 players produced at least 70 points of production in Weeks 14-18. Of those players, I see three that are noteworthy (and I’ve got them tagged in the chart below). Jalen McMillan, who looked like a possible bust early in the season, put up the 8th-best receiving numbers during the final five weeks of the season. He scored in all of those games – the first rookie with touchdown catches in five straight games since Randy Moss. I’m wondering if he might be better in 2025 than both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Marvin Mims was the 13th-best wide receiver during those final five games. That was helped along by a pair of touchdowns against a KC defense that was resting players, but Mims looks like a player on the rise. On my 2025 draft board, I expect he’ll be Denver’s 2nd-best wide receiver (probably below Courtland Sutton but above Troy Franklin, who had a modest first season). Quentin Johnston was primarily a touchdown guy last year, catching over a third of his team’s touchdown passes (8 of 23). But he got busier late in the season, with 5 catches in three games and a 13-catch game against Las Vegas in Week 18. But I see him as probably their 3rd-best receiver in 2025 – definitely behind the Badd Ladd, and probably also outperformed by some other wide receiver who’s not on the team right now.
| LEADING PASS CATCHES (WEEKS 14-18) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR |
| Ja'Marr Chase, Cin. | 5 | 48 | 566 | 4 | 128.6 |
| Davante Adams, NYJ | 5 | 36 | 510 | 5 | 117.0 |
| Brian Thomas, Jac. | 5 | 41 | 517 | 4 | 116.7 |
| Justin Jefferson, Min. | 5 | 35 | 495 | 5 | 114.5 |
| Mike Evans, T.B. | 5 | 35 | 483 | 4 | 107.3 |
| Malik Nabers, NYG | 5 | 34 | 464 | 4 | 104.4 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 5 | 39 | 443 | 3 | 101.3 |
| • Jalen McMillan, T.B. | 5 | 24 | 316 | 7 | 97.6 |
| Drake London, Atl. | 5 | 30 | 475 | 3 | 95.5 |
| Tee Higgins, Cin. | 5 | 30 | 353 | 5 | 95.3 |
| Terry McLaurin, Was. | 5 | 29 | 273 | 6 | 92.3 |
| Puka Nacua, LAR | 4 | 37 | 444 | 1 | 87.4 |
| • Marvin Mims, Den. | 5 | 23 | 341 | 5 | 87.1 |
| Jordan Addison, Min. | 5 | 27 | 300 | 5 | 87.0 |
| Trey McBride, Ari. | 5 | 38 | 365 | 2 | 86.5 |
| DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 4 | 27 | 317 | 4 | 82.7 |
| Adam Thielen, Car. | 5 | 29 | 350 | 3 | 82.0 |
| Jameson Williams, Det. | 5 | 24 | 371 | 3 | 79.1 |
| Jonnu Smith, Mia. | 5 | 30 | 236 | 4 | 77.6 |
| • Quentin Johnston, LAC | 5 | 31 | 345 | 2 | 77.5 |
| Jerry Jeudy, Cle. | 5 | 36 | 349 | 1 | 76.9 |
| Courtland Sutton, Den. | 5 | 24 | 337 | 3 | 75.7 |
| Ladd McConkey, LAC | 4 | 24 | 334 | 3 | 75.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers, L.V. | 5 | 28 | 351 | 2 | 75.1 |
| Sam LaPorta, Det. | 5 | 29 | 335 | 2 | 74.5 |
| Nico Collins, Hou. | 5 | 27 | 293 | 3 | 74.3 |
| George Kittle, S.F. | 5 | 28 | 457 | 0 | 73.7 |
| Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 5 | 27 | 341 | 2 | 73.1 |
| Mark Andrews, Balt. | 5 | 18 | 250 | 5 | 73.0 |
| DJ Moore, Chi. | 5 | 36 | 303 | 1 | 72.3 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Sea. | 5 | 30 | 301 | 2 | 72.1 |
Question 3
I’m starting to re-think my draft strategy of waiting for a QB. It seems to me that the top few QB’s outscore the mid-level guys about as much as the top of any position out scores the mid-level of those positions, so because there are fewer options, grabbing one of the top 5 QB’s is worth targeting with a higher draft pick. What are your thoughts on this?
Robert Cummings (Los Angeles, CA)
There’s the production of the player, and there’s the cost to get him. Jared Goff and Sam Darnold, as examples, weren’t as productive as the very best players at the position, but they were a lot cheaper in drafts. Darnold (and I’ll put Baker Mayfield in this group as well) has been thinking that there’s some value in holding three quarterbacks for the first few weeks of the season – let’s see what some of these quarterbacks in the teens look like before locking in on two quarterbacks for the bulk of the season. Going into a draft locked in on selecting a top-5 quarterback, I think, can fizzle in a couple of ways. The player you pick simply might not be as good as expected. Patrick Mahomes fit this this profile last year. Others had C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson among their top 5, creating a double whammy of investing a high draft pick and also not getting production. Or the top-5 QB can fail when others are able to land similar or better players later. Joe Burrow wasn’t one of the first five quarterbacks selected in a lot of drafts. But if we’re using an early pick on a quarterback, with that guy putting up good numbers – being an Allen, Jackson or Burrow – then I’m all for it.
Question 4
I would like to suggest a new chart for 2025. All QBs metrics for home and away comparison. Thanks for helping me another League Championship.
Jim Venettis (Farmington, MI)
I ran the home-away quarterback numbers at pro-football-reference.com. The numbers you see show per-game points, including 1 for every 25 passing yards (slightly different than what we usually use). Only slight hiccup is that for international games, those aren’t considered “neutral” – players are either home or away, depending on how the league designated their team. Anyway, you’re getting a stab at it. I’m listing all quarterbacks who started at least 5 games both home and away. Looks like three quarterbacks averaged at least 4 more points when playing at home – Nix, Hurts, Rodgers. And three averaged at least 3.7 more points when playing on the road – Richardson, Jackson and Daniel Jones.
| QB: HOME VS. AWAY | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Home | Away | Diff |
| Bo Nix | 21.2 | 16.2 | 5.0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 23.3 | 19.0 | 4.3 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 17.3 | 13.1 | 4.2 |
| Caleb Williams | 16.6 | 13.1 | 3.5 |
| Jared Goff | 20.6 | 17.2 | 3.4 |
| Josh Allen | 24.0 | 20.8 | 3.2 |
| Derek Carr | 16.6 | 13.6 | 3.0 |
| Joe Burrow | 23.4 | 20.6 | 2.8 |
| Sam Darnold | 19.2 | 16.9 | 2.3 |
| Justin Herbert | 17.9 | 15.8 | 2.1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 22.3 | 20.7 | 1.6 |
| Matthew Stafford | 14.1 | 12.7 | 1.4 |
| C.J. Stroud | 13.7 | 12.3 | 1.3 |
| Kyler Murray | 18.1 | 16.8 | 1.3 |
| Jordan Love | 16.2 | 14.9 | 1.3 |
| Jayden Daniels | 21.5 | 20.3 | 1.2 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 14.6 | 14.4 | .2 |
| Kirk Cousins | 12.3 | 12.9 | -.5 |
| Brock Purdy | 17.3 | 18.5 | -1.2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 17.0 | 18.2 | -1.2 |
| Russell Wilson | 15.0 | 16.5 | -1.5 |
| Geno Smith | 14.7 | 16.7 | -1.9 |
| Will Levis | 8.9 | 11.5 | -2.6 |
| Drake Maye | 13.1 | 16.1 | -3.1 |
| Bryce Young | 14.7 | 17.8 | -3.1 |
| Anthony Richardson | 13.1 | 16.8 | -3.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | 23.0 | 27.3 | -4.3 |
| Daniel Jones | 11.3 | 15.7 | -4.4 |
| Average | 17.2 | 16.7 | .5 |
Question 5
Thanks to all the contributors at Fantasy Index for help putting a team together to play in my league championship game! Time for my yearly keeper question: I get to keep 3 players two rounds ahead of drafted position. It’s a ppr (2QB, 2RB, 4WR/TE) with 6 points for throwing TDs. These are the players I’m considering, along with what they will cost: Joe Burrow (rd2), Jonathan Taylor (rd5), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (rd 12), Keon Coleman (rd 10), Sam Darnold (rd 10), Bucky Irving (rd 10), Rashee Rice (rd 8). Appreciate your thoughts, thanks!
William Martin (Winnipeg, MB)
With the price tags, I would think Irving and JSN are your top two options. Both of those teams lost their coordinators, and in both cases it could or should result in reduced numbers. But would be tough to pass on those players in the 10th and 12th rounds. For the third spot, I’d be looking at Taylor or Burrow. There’s not much of price discount with Burrow, I will concede, but the 6-point TD passes puts him in the conversation. With Rashee Rice, there’s still the likely suspension when the car-racing issue is resolved, so I’m not even putting him on my rough draft list.