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Ian Allan

Hits but more misses at quarterback

The general consensus is that this isn't a good draft class for quarterbacks. There's no knockout prospect, and there's no agreement on which one should be selected first.

It's possible one might not even be selected in the top 20.

Ryan Nassib, Geno Smith, Matt Barkley. Nobody really knows.

We'll see where they land. For now, I'll add only that the track record for rookie quarterbacks gets pretty spotty after the can't-miss guys are removed.

Below is the list of quarterbacks taken in the first round in the last 30 years - but not counting quarterbacks taken in the top 5. You set aside the guys like John Elway, Troy Aikman, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, and the success rate gets pretty low.

In the list below I've put in bold the names of the quarterbacks that "made it". And by "made it," I mean quarterbacks that in hindsight definitely would have been picked as high (or higher) again.

By my count, there are five really good ones. Marino, Kelly, Rodgers, Roethlisberger and Flacco. And two where the bar is set a little lower - Jay Cutler and Daunte Culpepper.

Others had some value. Trent Dilfer and Chad Pennington, for example. And Jake Locker, Christian Ponder and Ryan Tannehill could still play their way into favored quarterback status. But overall, the hit-miss ratio isn't very good.


FIRST ROUND QUARTERBACKS AFTER THE TOP 5 PICKS
   Year   Pk   

   1994    6    Trent Dilfer
   1992    6    David Klinger
   1987    6    Kelly Stouffer
   2003    7    Byron Leftwich
   1990    7    Andre Ware
   1983    7    Todd Blackledge
   2012    8    Ryan Tannehill
   2011    8    Jake Locker
   2011   10   Blaine Gabbert
   2006   10   Matt Leinart
   2006   11   Jay Cutler
   2004   11   Ben Roethlisberger
   1999   11   Daunte Culpepper
   2011   12   Christian Ponder
   1999   12   Cade McNown
   1986   12   Chuck Long
   1987   13   Chris Miller
   1983   14   Jim Kelly
   1983   15   Tony Eason
   1991   16   Dan McGwire
   2009   17   Josh Freeman
   2008   18   Joe Flacco
   2000   18   Chad Pennington
   2003   19   Kyle Boller
   2012   22   Brandon Weeden
   2007   22   Brady Quinn
   2004   22   J.P. Losman
   2003   22   Rex Grossman
   2005   24   Aaron Rodgers
   1983   24   Ken O'Brien
   1991   24   Todd Marinovich
   2005   25   Jason Campbell
   2010   25   Tim Tebow
   1992   25   Tommy Maddox
   1987   26   Jim Harbaugh
   1997   26   Jim Druckenmiller
   1983   27   Dan Marino
   2002   32   Patrick Ramsey

^aEUR"Ian Allan


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