Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: how much difference does Strength of Schedule make? Picking through keeper decisions. How to settle on auction prices. And more.

Question 1

12 Team Keeper League, 1/2 PPR. Keep only one of these players, lose that round pick. Derrick Henry in 1st, Nico Collins in 4th or Trey McBride in the 5th. Any thoughts would be appreciated.

PERRY ROSE (Clarks Green, PA)

I would keep Collins. He’s the #12 player on my board, and you’d be getting him with pick #37-48, depending where your pick lands. That looks awfully promising – Houston’s No. 1 guy. McBride is the other possibility; I think he’s the No. 1 tight end. But it’s easier to fill that position. McBride is the #39 overall player on my board, and you’d be getting him with pick #49-60, depending on draft slot. A good value, but not in the same ballpark as Collins. With Collins, you’re getting him 25-36 picks early; with McBride, you’re getting him 10-21 picks early, and they’re later (less valuable) draft slots. If we reframe the question to the premise of selecting a WR and a TE in the fourth and fifth rounds, we might guess that would get LaPorta in the fifth round if protecting Collins in the fourth. Collins (231) plud LaPorta (171) would be 402 points. If protecting McBride (204) in the fifth, then maybe Worthy-Adams-Sutton-Evans in the fourth, with those guys going for about 195, with a combined total of 399 – in the same ballpark, I’ll concede, but a little less.

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Question 2

How important is overall strength of schedule when ranking the first two rounds of a draft? Or does talent usually win out? Considering how much of a dropoff there is between the beginning of Round 1 and the end of Round 2 this year, I wonder if SOS doesn't affect players like Amon-Ra or CeeDee or Saquon just a little bit more this year?

Ed Burke (Clifton Heights, PA)

I’m not a big fan of Strength of Schedule. It’s not reliable enough. Too many teams wind up being a lot better (or a lot worse) than expected. Below see the projected 30 easiest schedules of the last 10 years (the last 10 year, plus the to-be-played 2025 season). This includes four current teams (in bold), with the numbers suggesting the 49ers and Saints will play the easiest schedules since 2015). All of the teams below went into the year scheduled to play opponents that won 45 percent of their games (or less) the previous year. But over a third of these teams (9 of 26) ended up playing opponents who finished with a combined record of at least .500. Only four of the 26 finished under that 45 percent mark that got everyone excited in the first place. As a group, these teams ended up at 48 percent, so I guess it can at least be said that when a team projects to play a really easy schedule, it probably will at least play a schedule that’s a little easier than the typical. Probably. I would use SOS only if the two players I was considering were very similar in value.

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Question 3

Your magazine cheat sheet (PPR) has the highest FPG at RB for CMC and Guerendo, both at 19.5. Clearly Guerendo is only valuable if CMC gets injured. That said, doesn’t the strategy of selecting CMC in the first round and Guerendo in Round 9 make sense, especially for those of us drafting in the second half of Round 1?

Steven Math (Austin, TX)

Yes. If you can pull it off. You don’t really know what it will take to land Guerendo. I’m not confident he’ll be the in the 9th round of a 12-team draft. There very plausibly could be an owner or two who firmly believes that McCaffrey is simply an older, declining back who has no chance of staying healthy. To give yourself a good chance of getting both McCaffrey and Guerendo, you probably will need to take Guerendo a couple of rounds earlier than what you think he’s actually worth. And given Kyle Shanahan’s history, I suppose it might make some sense to use a last-round pick on Jordan James (the fifth-rounder out of Oregon). Since Shanahan showed up in San Francisco, he’s used three third- and fourth-round picks on running backs: Tyrion Davis-Price, Trey Sermon and Joe Williams. But he’s gotten better production out of sixth-rounder Elijah Mitchell and four running backs who weren’t drafted at all: Jordan Mason, Matt Breida, Jeff Wilson and Jamycal Hasty.

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Question 4

10 team half ppr. Lose the round I selected them in last year. Need two out of these 4. Bijan 1st. Nabers 4th rd. Brian Thomas 11th rd. Jayden Daniels 12th round. Your thoughts Ian? I really don’t want to give up Robinson, but the value in keeping both Thomas and Nabers in those spots is very intriguing.

RON BEST (Church Point, LA)

I’d be looking at Thomas and Daniels. Both are in the top 25 overall on my board, and you’d be getting them for picks outside the top 100. Bijan and Nabers are better players, but you’d be paying a lot more for them. I would much rather have Thomas and Daniels, along with first- and fourth-round picks, rather than Bijan and Nabers, paired with a couple of picks outside the top 100.

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Question 5

LOVE the magazine (& pdf version) as always since it serves as my fantasy prep kick starter. However, I have to tell you how disappointing it was to not have ANY auction segments at all. What's the deal with that? I know I can still use my custom league settings to create an Auction Value Report, but I'm just perplexed why this segment was not included this year. What gives?

Bryan Teegardin (Rochester, NY)

We’re doing more with mock drafts this year. I think you’ll see a steady scroll of mocks appearing on the site for the next two months. So let’s do this. We’ll make a mock auction part of that package. At least one. The 12 team operators will be a combination of Fantasy Index personnel and readers – hopefully readers with some experience in the format. (Maybe we can get you to show up for one of them?)

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Question 6

It’s that time of year again - could you give a refresher course on how to set the auction values to generate an overall rankings cheat sheet for all offensive positions?

Scott Anderson (Las Vegas, NV)

I use a combination of what I THINK will happen and what I think SHOULD happen (if I were running all of the teams). I’m trying to decide what a $1 player is at each position. The value of the players worth more than the $1 minimum is then automatically determined by measuring how much better they are than the best of the $1 players. At quarterback, for example, perhaps we’re in a 12-team league. Past auctions show that everyone will be taking two quarterbacks. So we know going in that we’re going to be able to get somebody like Tua, Stafford, Penix or Geno for $1. You’ve got that in your back pocket. With that in mind, are you willing to go above $1 for Bryce Young or Jordan Love? Young was good late last year, but I’m not sure I’m willing to spend extra to get him rather than one of those $1 guy. Nor am I excited about spending more on Love, considering how run-oriented the Packers turned late last year. I will be with QB #19 on my board, Young, as my baseline guy, with 18 QBs going for more than $1. That might be conservative, considering that those who spend $1 on a throwaway quarterback late – Stafford, Tua – aren’t locked into playing all year with that guy. They’ll have to flexibility to pivot to a quarterback who wasn’t even drafted. At running back, if these 12 teams are each drafting five running backs, that’s 60 being picked. In that kind of a league, I would perhaps view the best of the $1 guys as somebody in the 39-44 range – Austin Ekeler, Tyjae Spears, Tyler Allgeier, Trey Benson, Blake Corum. I have some interest in all of these guys, of course, but I’m trying to gauge whether I can get one of them relatively painlessly, saving my money to spend on the top-of-the-market guys. Again, keep in mind that there will be some really good running backs who’ll be picked up on the waiver wire during the season. When you’re spending $3 on a running back late in the draft, how likely is he to be better than what’s on the waiver wire in early October? At wide receiver, if the 12 are picking 6-7 each, that would be 72-84. On this front, it can be useful to look at the last few auctions, looking at how many were purchased. Then you look at perhaps 75 percent of that total and starting looking for the best guys you aren’t interested in paying more than the minimum for. In the late 50s early 60s, I see Michael Wilson, Josh Downs, Romeo Doubs and Jack Bech. I wouldn’t want to be saving money on my front-line players to spend on those guys. Tight ends catch passes like wide receivers, but they’re more like quarterbacks in an auction. With fantasy teams usually starting only one, there’s less demand and more supply. If each team is carrying two tight ends, I would guess that somebody like Isaiah Likely, Kyle Pitts, Chig Okonkwo or Mike Gesicki won’t even be purchased. Probably a couple of those guys will end up being decent. With that in mind, I would be reluctant spending more than the minimum on a second tight end, knowing there should be some options on the waiver wire. So if 24 are being selected, let’s make tight end #15, Pat Freiermuth, the last one worth more than $1. That makes guys like Darren Waller and the two first-round rookies worth only $1. At kicker, I’ll spend a little more to get Dicker or Aubrey, but otherwise I will roll with a $1 player. And defenses are similar in typical scoring systems (is there an option there that merits more than the $1 min? Or do we just want to take our chances with hoping around on the waiver wire?)

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Question 7

Last year was crazy in that other than CMC most of the Rb stayed healthy. Normally I take a few backups in the late rounds and wait for an injury and that didn’t work out so well. That being said, who are the backups you would want the most to stash this year? I’m guessing Mason, Guerendo are the top 2.

Tavis Medrano (Arcadia, CA)

Mason will be playing all along, so he’s a little different. He’ll have a role. I was talking on the phone a few weeks back with Paul Charchian (long in the fantasy industry). He says Aaron Jones told him that Mason will be handling Minnesota’s goal-line and short-yardage carries. Agree on Guerendo. Others: Trey Benson, Zach Charbonnet, Tyler Allgeier, Ray Davis, Jaylen Wright.

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Question 8

Here's one for you. In Super Bowl years, how many times has a guy won the receiving triple crown, catches, yards and TDs, and how did he do the next year?

Matt Morse (Glennallen, AK)

It doesn’t happen often. Since the merger in 1970, only five guys have done it. Nobody has done it twice (even Jerry Rice managed only one Triple Crown). All five receivers who’ve achieved this have been in the fourth, fifth or sixth year.

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Question 9

I have a league we've been doing since 1986 and have a majority of the same franchise owners still participating and putting in a little twist this year. We are thinking about using a clock for our picks this year (LIVE DRAFT)what's everyone's thoughts on the time allowed during each pick?

Kevin Fisher (Hermiston, OR)

I think a minute would be plenty for the first four rounds. Perhaps reduced down to 30-40 seconds for the remaining rounds.

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