What happens if a league richly rewards kickers who can hit long field goals? Then does it make sense to select one in the earlier rounds?
James Costello posed a question on the post from earlier today. He asked if kickers become much more valuable when they're given big bonuses for hitting long field goals. Then does it make sense to go after a guy like Sebastian Janikowski, Blair Walsh or Greg Zuerlein.
At best, maybe. The difference doesn't seem to be much.
In Costello's league, kicker points are standard, expect it's 5 points for field goals from 40-plus yards and 10 points for anything from 50-plus. That can make a kicker a whopper. Using that system, the two highest scoring kickers ever (I think) have come from the last two years. David Akers went for 227 two years ago, and Blair Walsh (helped along by 10 field goals from 50-plus) finished last season with 225.
But note that nobody would have selected either of those guys in the top 10 in those years.
There's still fluctuation, and it's still hard to select a guy with confidence he'll be a top-5 scorer at his position.
Look at this chart. It shows the team totals for the last three years. I've put in bold the eight teams that finished in the top 8 in 2011 -- the top 25 percent. Note that only one of those teams again finished in the top 8 last year, and it was one with a different kicker (Houston, which had Neil Rackers in 2011 and switched to Shayne Graham, who's got one of the weaker legs around).
Costello's in an auction leg. The trends suggest he should pay a little more than the minimum for a kicker, but that he shouldn't feel the need to break the bank.
KICKER POINTS -- COSTELLO SYSTEM | |||
---|---|---|---|
'12 | '11 | '10 | |
Minnesota | 225 | 130 | 85 |
Atlanta | 191 | 150 | 151 |
Tampa Bay | 189 | 141 | 124 |
New England | 185 | 168 | 134 |
Houston | 180 | 171 | 155 |
Detroit | 180 | 165 | 163 |
Baltimore | 180 | 155 | 131 |
Cleveland | 177 | 155 | 103 |
Oakland | 170 | 198 | 186 |
NY Giants | 166 | 113 | 124 |
Cincinnati | 165 | 160 | 120 |
Denver | 164 | 114 | 130 |
Indianapolis | 161 | 123 | 147 |
San Francisco | 159 | 227 | 121 |
Dallas | 159 | 169 | 158 |
St. Louis | 158 | 97 | 160 |
Washington | 157 | 162 | 122 |
Chicago | 151 | 175 | 139 |
Pittsburgh | 149 | 124 | 155 |
Green Bay | 145 | 160 | 142 |
San Diego | 144 | 174 | 154 |
New Orleans | 136 | 171 | 144 |
Seattle | 135 | 137 | 123 |
Kansas City | 135 | 127 | 121 |
Arizona | 130 | 107 | 131 |
Miami | 128 | 167 | 165 |
Philadelphia | 128 | 133 | 168 |
Tennessee | 127 | 181 | 140 |
NY Jets | 124 | 132 | 147 |
Jacksonville | 122 | 142 | 139 |
Buffalo | 121 | 134 | 97 |
Carolina | 106 | 126 | 135 |
--Ian Allan