Should you select a defense or a kicker first? Ian looks at the relative values of these positions in today's edition of the Mailbag, using historical data from the last 10 years.
Question 1
In the magazine you make an interesting argument for drafting one of the top two kickers. For the top two kickers, you state "Draft one and you should outscore almost all the teams in your league by about 20 points at this position". Fair enough. But when it comes to defenses, you don't seem to use the same logic. "We have little interest in using a premium pick to select a defense". Yet when I look at past years, the top 2 defenses typically outscore the 4th and up by 15-20 points. So why not apply the same thinking here? Are defenses too hard to project year to year?
STEVE WEBER (Paso Robles, CA)
A fair comment, and I spent considerable time looking into it. You may recall the the kicker chart I posted earlier in the week, in which I showed how the most-coveted kicker (the No. 1 kicker from the Experts Poll) hasn’t done that well. Only four times in the last 15 years has the No. 1 kicker outscored the No. 10 kicker by 10-plus points. That study was created as preliminary research to answer your question. I wanted to look into whether it made more sense to select a kicker or a defense first. I tend to be a fan of kickers. I spend a lot of time looking at them and grading them, and I usually end up falling in love for 1-3 of them every year – I perceive some value there. That’s the case this year. I’m going into drafts wanting to select Dawson or Gostkowski. But I will concede that over the years, that strategy has flopped more often than it has succeeded. If you look at defenses the same way, they grade out a little higher than kickers. Recall for kickers that I looked at them using a baseline system – how do they compare to what you would have gotten if you ended up with the No. 10 defense (using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns, 2 points for takeaways, and 1 for each sack). I picked the No. 10 spot because I’m guessing that’s where I will finish at that position if I essentially blow off the position – addressing it in the later rounds and making a few waiver moves. Good kickers and defenses will show up out of the woodwork. With kickers, the No. 1 kicker tends to outscore No. 10 by about 31 points. That’s 20 points lower than with defenses. In the No. 2 spot, defenses win by 15 points – 38 vs. 23. If you can get the No. 3 defense, it should outperform the No. 3 kicker by about 12 points (it outscores the No. 10 defense by 28 points, while at kicker, the edge is just 16 points). Defenses provide a little more pop than kickers. As a reminder, that’s how they actually finish. When I say “No. 1”, I’m not talking about the first one drafted – I’m talking about the one that ended up scoring the most points. The key number, of course, is what you get at the draft. Namely, is it worth going after one of these units early? And by that measure, defenses beat kickers. Look at the 11 seasons since the league went to 32 teams. If you’d selected the defense ranked No. 1 in our experts poll – the group most people wanted – it outscored the No. 10 defense by 10-plus points in 5 of those 11 seasons. With kickers, you’re looking at just a 2 of 11 success rate (if we define “success” as a 10-plus point advantage). Neither position, however, has been very reliable. The average value of the most coveted defense comes in behind the top 8 actual defenses. If you set aside 2011 Nate Kaeding, who was injured on the opening kickoff of the season, the average value is about the same. Conclusion: trends of the last 10 years success it makes more sense to use a middle-round pick on the defense of the 49ers or Seahawks, rather than Dawson or Gostkowski. I my gut, though, I still like those kickers.
Question 2
Long time subscriber at least 15 years and love your work. Am in a keeper league must keep 1 to 3 players. It’s a PPR league. I have Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, A.J. Green and Tom Brady. I think I should keep Morris over Brady, since his team has been depleted. So that gives me Foster, Green and Morris.
GARY CASEY (LOUISVILLE, KY)
I think you’ve got it right. A month ago, I would have put Brady ahead of Morris. Morris is a good back, but he’s not as valuable in the PPR format. I’ve got him at only No. 10 (among running backs) in that scoring system. He caught only 11 passes last year, so he doesn’t grade out as well as you might expect. And at this time a month ago, Brady was my No. 1 quarterback. But New England’s looking awfully leaning in the pass catcher department right now. They had five guys catch 40-plus passes last year, and I don’t think any of them will be playing in September. Gronkowski (coming off the back and forearm surgeries) maybe, but Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead and Lloyd are gone. So you go with Morris, and I’ll beat you’ll still have the option to draft Brady if you wish. If you were to keep Brady, and I don’t think you’d be able to re-draft Morris.