Ian Allan answers your fantasy questions. In this edition: How does the loss of Aaron Hernandez affect New England's other receivers. Free agent players. Oversized receivers putting up undersized stats around the goal line. And more.
Question 1
Two tight end questions for you, Ian: The obvious one ... what does Aaron Hernandez's release mean for the Patriots and what fantasy jewels does it uncover (if any)? And with all the talk of Vernon Davis being used as a WR, is there a bargain to be had in Vance McDonald (or someone else)?
Geoff Maleman (LOS ANGELES, CA)
The Patriots had five players catch 40-plus passes last year. Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, Hernandez and Woodhead. Of that group, the only guy on the roster is Gronkowski, and he might not play in September. So the first order of business, I think, is to downgrade Brady. I’ve lowered his initial projection. And Danny Amendola looks awfully good to me. I’m very pleased to own him on both of the first two rosters I’ve put together (the Mock Auction in the magazine, and the Fanex Analysis Draft). He could catch 100 passes. I am also getting more interested in Julian Edelman. He could fit in nicely as a third receiver and additional slot-type guy. If Amendola gets hurt again, Edelman would be golden. At tight end, the Patriots do have other options, most notably Michael Hoomanawanui and Jake Ballard. But those guys aren’t Hernandez-type options, where you’re going to try to line them up in the slot and get mismatches. If the Patriots begin the season with those two guys as their tight ends, at the very best you’re looking at where the team was at five years ago, when it was going with the combo of Daniel Graham and Ben Watson. And these guys might not even be that good. Graham and Watson were both former first-round picks who had credible careers. As for Vernon Davis playing wide receiver, I don’t see it. I saw the article. He’s a fast guy who can run some receiver-type routes, but he’s a tight end. I think he’ll pick up some of the slack (with Crabtree out). A lot of the slack, in fact. Even before this whole Hernandez deal surfaced, I had Davis ahead of him. But I don’t see them trying to turn Davis into a 90-catch wide receiver. He’ll be their tight end, Boldin will start and catch a healthy chunk of balls. And maybe Ricardo Lockette will be the other starting wide receiver. Lockette is the burner who caught 2 long bombs at the end of the 2011 season for the Seahawks. I assume you saw the article that suggests he’s the frontrunner to start? He’s good friends with Kaepernick. They’re living together and working out together. But Lockette is a burner, deep-route guy – think Mike Wallace. He’ll definitely average over 17 yards per catch, but they won’t have him running hooks, working the middle of the field or doing much in the red zone. Vance McDonald or Brent Celek’s little brother will be the second tight end. I expect that guy to be an above-average No. 2 tight end, but not valuable enough to carry in a fantasy league.
Question 2
I've been having a great time reading the magazine (and thanks to your editor for mentioning my Super League team). I wanted to follow up on your comments about big receivers being less effective than expected in the red zone. I was wondering, could it be #1 receivers in general that struggle down there? That double-teaming by the defense is just a lot more effective in a short field? That would help explain why guys like James Jones, Mike Williams and Eric Decker can excel down there while CJ, VJ and Brandon Marshall are so weak. It might also explain why tight ends are so good in the red zone (since I imagine they're seldom doubled). Let me know if this makes any sense.
BILL REHOR (CULVER CITY, CA)
I don’t have access to all the film. I don’t have the luxury of pulling out footage of all the incompletions inside the 5. But it’s not my sense that the Lions just keep trying to force balls to Calvin Johnson, even though he’s double-covered. I think, in general, they line those guys up outside, then throw to them when they’ve got only one defender on them. I think it tends to be the difficulty of the throw/catch that’s the problem. But that’s something we can watch and get back to during the season. I am in agreement on tight ends. I think they’ve more effective than wide receivers because they’re harder to handle. Are they blocking? Or are they potential pass catchers? That makes them tougher for defenses. A couple of clean-up notes on the guys you specifically mentioned. Mike Williams doesn’t excel around the goal line; he was heavily used in that part of the field (a league-high 17 attempts inside the 5), but he caught only 6 of those balls. Vincent Jackson, while huge, was different than Megatron and Marshall. They were ineffective, but he simply isn’t even used.
Question 3
Can you give a list of the players that will be free agents at the end of the year?
Chris Thompson (LOS ANGELES, CA)
Here’s my working list of key guys. Quarterback: Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman. Running back: LeGarrette Blount, Jonathan Dwyer, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden, Rashard Mendenhall, Ben Tate. Wide receiver: Danario Alexander, Victor Cruz, Anquan Boldin, James Jones, Jacoby Jones, Julian Edelman, Jeremy Maclin, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Emmanuel Sanders. Tight End: Fred Davis, Jermichael Finley, Tony Gonzalez, Dustin Keller, Dennis Pitta.
Question 4
12-team, non-PPR league, 1pt per 10yds rush/rec, 1pt per 25yds passing. TD throws are worth 6 pts, In your opinion, is it still worth it to grab Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Manning in late 1st/early 2nd, or does the QB depth vs. RB scarcity make it a better route to go RB/RB and then get one of the 2nd-tier QBs? Also, just curious how good you expect Charles to be in KC. With Reid in KC, honestly I would rather have Charles than Rice or even Foster.
Scott Anderson (LAKEWOOD, CO)
Quarterbacks are worth slightly more in your league. There’s a slight downgrade in yards, with the drop from 20 to 25 yards. But it’s more than made up for with the 50 percent increase in the value of TD passes. The top-12 quarterbacks tend to be worth about 15 more points each in that scoring format. According to my projections, Brees and Rodgers are top-5 players, then four more quarterbacks should go in the second round. Executing that at your draft, I’d consider Brees or Rodgers strongly in the first round. The next four quarterbacks, I think, you should consider in the second half of the second round. And on Charles, I’m in agreement. He should be very good. It wouldn’t surprise me if he outproduced Rice and Foster. I would like him a little more in a PPR format than in your league.
Question 5
Can't wait to get your magazine but until then, I'm running one mock draft after another on Fantasy Football Calculator, trying to find a strategy that I can take into my real drafts. I was especially intrigued by your 'think different' FaxEx draft strategy. So, with the 7th pick in a 12-team PPR league, I focused on WRs in the first three rounds while everyone else grabbed RBs. My first three picks were Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones and Randall Cobb. The next six picks I wanted to come away with five upside RBs and my franchise QB. I took Shane Vereen in round 4 (just missed on Eddie Lacy) and Giovani Bernard in round 5. I couldn't pass on Matt Ryan in round 6 and have usually found him available in this round. Rounds 7-9 gave me RBs Bryce Brown, Ben Tate and Bernard Pierce. With my RBs taken care of, I grabbed my #4 WR, Mike Williams and then my backup QB, Jay Cutler. I missed out on TE Greg Olsen and took Martellus Bennett in the 12th. With stud WRs and QBs, do you think that my RBs are strong enough to take my team to the top? How would you modify my draft strategy?
Mike Rancka ()
Looks good to me. I don’t know how many wide receivers you can start. If you can start three, I would have liked to see you grab another one. I expect you’ll be fine at running back with your Cast of Thousands. With the situation in New England, Shane Vereen could be a lot more involved as a pass catcher. He’s replacing Woodhead, who caught 40 balls last year, and that should be a more prominent position in the offense this season.
Question 6
Our 12-team league is switching to a NASCAR scoring system where each week the highest scoring team receives 12 points, the next highest gets 11 and so on down to the lowest scoring team receiving 1. Looking for a site to accommodate this system, we were on CBS but it can't do it.
Russell Ditnes (JAMISON, PA)
I just got off the phone with Dan Miller from RealTime Fantasy Sports. He assures me that they can handle that kind of scoring. If you have any issues, contact them through the customer support email address at their site.
Question 7
While reading the mock auction portion of my newly arrived 2013 Fantasy Football Index it occurred to me that I didn't see an actual auction value cheat sheet. Where can I find your actual auction values for players?
Treavor Phipps (SALEM, IN)
I don’t like publishing auction values. They change too much based on league size and rules. If you’re in a 10-team league, for example, there’s $1,000 in play (if teams are using a $100 cap). If you’re in a 12-team league, it’s $1,200. Values of wide receivers go way up if you’re starting three of them (or if there’s a flex). Then you’ve got to account for whether the scoring is standard, PPR or TD-only. Too many variables. So our approach instead is to link our player projections into our website. Then you can go in, answer a few brief questions to give us an idea of what kind of league you’re in, and we can give you a far more accurate and meaningful price list. To access our auction values, go to the main page of the website and select “Resources” on the pull-down bar.
Question 8
For a couple of years we have been a 10-team league. We are considering an expansion draft. We were once a 12-team league and after a few years at 10 teams some feel that 12 teams is the “sweet spot”. We also are a keeper league and here are our keeper rules: • You may KEEP 0-3 players from the previous season; Every player kept represents the respective draft pick from the previous year. Waivers are assessed as a 20th round pick • The round a player is selected is in effect as long as that player is assigned “keeper” status. • Keeper status is limited to three consecutive years. After a player has been kept for three consecutive years, the player must be released. This also applies if the player was traded. • Draft order: Standard order in rounds 1-3 (expansion teams first, then last-place teams, finishing with Super Bowl teams, snake thereafter) The question: Would this expansion plan be fair? • Each of the ten incumbent teams keeps ONE player, then the two expansion teams take one remaining player • THEN the ten incumbent teams each keep two more remaining unclaimed players • THEN the draft commences with the two expansion teams picking 1 and 2 (staying at 1-2 for the first three STANDARD ordered rounds) Love to hear your thoughts and analysis on this!
steve peavler (CHICAGO, IL)
I think it looks fair enough. But I’ll raise some issues you can potentially discuss. Why go to a snake draft after three rounds? At that point, you’re getting into the lesser portion of the draft. Why not just keep it at 1-12? Also, rookie quarterbacks tend to be slow to develop (there have been four notable exceptions the last two years, but I don’t think that will continue). With that in mind, maybe the three-year protection window should be expanded to four years for teams drafting a rookie quarterback.