Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this week's edition: Why is the Index so low on Steven Jackson? Is Montee Ball worthy of a second-round draft pick? And how are we supposed to categorize the newest "offensive weapon" in Jacksonville?
Question 1
I was going through the Index and noticed that you seem to be pretty down on Steven Jackson. You reference the large number of red zone and goal-line carries that Michael Turner got last year but think that the subpar offensive line and Jackson’s age are working seriously against him. Turner had 11 TDs and is nowhere near as talented as Jackson. Last season SJax improved from 63 YPG to 107 YPG in the 2nd half of the season. He showed renewed burst and did not look like an aging back. Doesn't the talent upgrade over Michael Turner at least make you a little excited about his prospects this year? Jacquizz Rodgers is just a guy, he averaged below 4.0 YPC last year despite getting the ball against nickel and dime packages. I think you are seriously overestimating his ability.
Brian MacInnes (SANTA MONICA, CA)
Jackson has been a great, great pro for a lot of years, but for anybody to suggest that he’s half the back he was early in his career is simply ridiculous. This guy used to be a flat-out warrior – a guy that no one defender was going to take down. He was cranking out 2,000-yard seasons. Think a bigger, meaner, more physical version of Ray Rice. But all those violent collisions have taken a toll. He’s lot a lot of speed and power. He’ll be 30 on Monday. Now, I’m not saying he’s now just a big worthless pile of goo. Being 30, that’s not a death sentence. In the last 15 years, 25 thirtysomethings have gone over 1,000 yards. But 2013 Steven Jackson sure ain’t 2006 Steven Jackson. Time marches on. In Atlanta, the best thing he has going for him is the surrounding firepower. That’s why Michael Turner had 22 carries inside the 5 (No. 2 in the league). But the offensive line there isn’t any good. That’s why Turner scored on only 7 of those carries. And I think you underestimate the other Oregon State back there. Jacquizz Rodgers is more than “just a guy”, as you see. He’s quicker and faster than Jackson, and a better receiver. The Falcons have indicated, and Jackson concurs, he’s not a one-man backfield anymore. That will be a committee. Where I see Jackson going in drafts, I’m confident he won’t be on any of my teams this year.
Question 2
My question regards Montee Ball. I've consistently seen him go in the early to mid 2nd round of mocks and in some cases, is a teams RB1. With all of the aerial weapons at Peyton Manning's disposal, are they really going to be handing off to Montee enough to warrant that draft position?
Mike Koffski (CHICAGO, IL)
I think so. The Broncos averaged 115 rushing yards per game last year, with 12 TDs on the ground. If Ball is their main runner and getting the lion’s share of the work, he should run for something like 1,100 yards and double-digit touchdowns. Key will be if he’s comfortable enough to be in there on a lot of passing downs, enabling him to catch 35 passes for an additional 250-300. When Manning was in Indianapolis, they had plenty of productive rookie running backs. Edgerrin James, Dominic Rhodes (in a partial season) and Joseph Addai all ran for over 1,000 yards and caught 34-plus passes, with 34 TDs between those guys. I have considerable interest in Ball.
Question 3
Love the magazine- every year when I get it, it is like being a kid on Christmas morning. I am starting a new keeper league. Most of the owners have never done one before (including myself). We do an auction for the first 3 picks, then draft for rounds 4-20. We can keep as many players as we want the following year- giving up draft picks to do so after keeping 6. My problem is deciding what value to put on rookies. Do Bell, Ball, Patterson and Austin go in the first 3 rounds, or is this too early? Would you recommend going more for a long-range plan selecting someone like Austin over say Steve Smith or Miles Austin? Targeting Montee Ball over Gore – or take the better player now and try to win NOW since tomorrow is never guaranteed? Thanks!
MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)
No way would I consider an old fogey like Smith or Miles Austin before Tavon Austin. I think Austin – Tavon Austin – will be very good right away. Probably better than Miles Austin from the git-go, and maybe better than Steve Smith. He should be good right out of the box, so I think Tavon Austin should be one of the guys purchased in that initial three-round auction. If you look at our keeper-league rankings on page 29 of the magazine, you’ll see we have Austin as the No. 9 wide receiver. With those teen-type running backs (Ball, Bell, Bernard) those are maybe guys. Those are the only other three rookies, I think, who might be worth buying in the auction, rather than waiting and drafting. Heading into your draft, I would be hoping to get players who are both young and good. Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick and Newton, I think, are good enough that I would select them before a Hall of Fame guy like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady who’s at the end of the road. (This is assuming, of course, that you have the confidence in your friends that this league will still be around in eight years.)
Question 4
I really enjoyed the podcasts in July and August last year - is Justin doing them again?
Andrew Beach (Toronto, ON)
Justin Eleff is a superstar writer. He’s landed some scholarship or fellowship to work on his writing. (And I’m not talking fantasy football writing, I’m talking about fiction and short stories – stuff like that.) So I don’t think he’ll have a big role in the podcasts this year. But he may pop up from time to time. But we will have podcasts, and you’ll see them on the website soon.
Question 5
Long-time subscriber and happy to get your help every year. I was just wondering if anyone drafts Denard Robinson what position should he be listed at? We have no OW in our league. Thanks.
DARRELL PRESTELLA (CARSON CITY, NV)
Good point. The Jaguars are listing Robinson as an “OW” – offensive weapon. He’ll probably play some as a read-option quarterback and as a third-down type running back. He’ll return some kicks, and he might even play at wide receiver. It’s an issue that should be discussed on draft nights – best to resolve these ones BEFORE people draft. How about this: if you draft Robinson, you can use him as a QB, RB or WR? Is that fair? Personally, he’s not a guy I would draft, even with multi-position flexibility. But I will concede that there are guys out there who think he’ll be good. My jaw nearly hit the floor when we went for $4.00 in the ongoing Fanex Auction.
Question 6
I am trying to configure my league’s scoring settings in the custom rankings generator. My league awards bonus points, for example, if a quarterback throws for over 300 yards – it's worth 3 bonus points. Is there a way that you guys can incorporate that kind of scoring structure into the custom rankings generator?
Jason LeBeouf (MODESTO, CA)
Close enough for government work; isn’t that what they say? The auction generator is not set up to handle tiers. It also doesn’t handle points for rushing attempts and pass attempts, which are two I hear about occasionally. But there are ways to create work-arounds for all of these issues. For points-per-run-attempts, just had an extra 1 point for every 4 yards (since most backs averaging something pretty close to 4 yards per carry). Now that might give a slight extra value to guys who actually average 5 yards per carry, while unfairly penalizing plodders who average only 3.5 (they’ll be shorted a few points), but not by enough to create a meaningful difference in the rankings. We’re just trying to get the guys in the approximate order. When it comes down to selecting Chris Ivory or Lamar Miller, you’re going to select the guy you like. In the case you mention, you’re looking at quarterbacks passing for 300 yards. I assume these guys are already getting 1 point for every 20 yards, correct? In that case, it’s not really a big deal. Drew Brees had 10 of those games last year. That’s 30 points in your league – about 2 per game. The absolute bottom teams will finish down around about 2 of those 300-yard games. So about 4 points for them. We’re talking about a 25-point swing, with Brees at the top, then the guys like Manning, Ryan, Stafford, etc. And the pop-gun guys like Sanchez, Flynn and Gabbert down around 4-5 points.
Question 7
I'm in an auction league w/ a $50 salary cap and can keep 2 guys. First keeper is Alfred Morris at $3. For the second one, would you keep Reggie Wayne at $3.20 or Stevan Ridley for $5.20? We play 2 rb, 2 wr and a flex, and the only top-6 backs likely to be available are Foster and possibly Rice.
Jason Embry (CEDAR PARK, TX)
I don’t have your exact rules in front of me, so I’m just winging it. But I will guess that Ridley’s probably worth about $7-8, and Wayne is probably worth about $9-10. Wayne’s maybe the No. 20 wide receiver, while Ridley is probably about 25th among running backs. So with the relative price tags, Wayne makes a little more sense. But for more exact numbers, use the custom auction price generator.
Question 8
In a standard (1 QB, 2 RB, 2WR) league, I am keeping Lynch (3rd), Morris (7th), and Luck (8th), who would you recommend taking with the first overall pick?
Grant Markgraf (Lake Geneva, WI)
You’ve got your starters at running back and quarterback, so I imagine you’ll be looking to deal that pick. The demand will be high, I think, for Adrian Peterson. I suggest you start working the phones and see if you can work a deal to move down, allowing you to get two really good wide receivers. If you get stuck holding the No. 1 pick, then probably Arian Foster would be the guy, I think.