Ian Allan fields your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Does it make sense to trade Alfred Morris in a keeper league? The danger of underrating defenses. A trip down memory cover lane. And why you should consult with a meteorologist before selecting your fantasy team.
Question 1
Hey! I have been a huge fan of the magazine since longer than can remember. I actually refer to it as the Fantasy "Bible"! I was reminiscing and trying to remember who has been all the covers of each magazine. Think you can post what year and who has graced the cover for your faithful "Bible" fans! Would really enjoy seeing each photo too!!
ALLAN MARGERUM (MANTUA, NJ)
At the Facebook page (search for “FantasyIndex.com”) we’ve got a cover for each. In 1992-98, I believe, we had regional covers, with up to six different guys in some of those years. 1987 Dan Marino 1988 Jerry Rice (R.Cunningham inset) 1989 Jerry Rice (N.Anderson inset) 1990 Barry Sanders (Rice/Montana inset) 1991 Randall Cunningham (T.Thomas inset) 1992 multiple covers 1993 multiple covers 1994 multiple covers 1995 multiple covers 1996 multiple covers 1997 multiple covers 1998 multiple covers 1999 Randy Moss 2000 Kurt Warner 2001 Daunte Culpepper 2002 Terrell Owens 2003 Ricky Williams 2004 Priest Holmes 2005 Tatum Bell 2006 Shaun Alexander 2007 LaDainian Tomlinson 2008 Tom Brady 2009 Larry Fitzgerald 2010 Chris Johnson 2011 Arian Foster 2012 Rob Gronkowski 2013 Adrian Peterson
Question 2
Love the magazine and your input. One thing I always look for is a trend for a player in the last several games of the season, which may show how he will be used next season. You mention Morris is not involved much in the passing game since he caught only 11 passes during the season but did you notice that he caught 5 of them in the last few games? Do you think that he may be used more in the passing game this year?
RODNEY NESBIT (REDONDO BEACH, CA)
I did notice that Morris caught 5 balls in those last three games. Also not, however, that he didn’t catch any passes in the playoff loss the next week. I’m sure he’ll be improved somewhat, but I don’t think catching is his thing. I don’t think there’s any way he’s getting up to 30 catches, if that’s what you’re suggesting. Look at the other two noteworthy rookies who have run for over 1,500 yards for Shanahan. Terrell Davis caught a career-high 49 passes as a rookie, then dropped down to 36, 42 and 25 the next three years. Clinton Portis caught 33 as a rookie, then moved up to 38 and 40. It’s my belief that Morris simply isn’t much of a pass catcher, and that will never be a big part of his game. I expect he’ll catch about 20 balls, with 25 probably being his ceiling.
Question 3
I play in an 18-team keeper league where we can keep 5 off, 3 def, with no more than 2 at any position. We're also allowed to designate 3 "redshirt" players before each season starts. You don't use them and they are "free" keepers the next year, not counting against your keeper caps at all. I had Rodgers as my starter and Luck as a redshirt. (I try to stockpile QBs because they are crazy valuable in a league this big and the scoring system is extremely QB friendly) I just traded Rodgers. I'm going into the draft with the 5th and 9th picks. I'm thinking of taking best available rookie to redshirt at the 5. I'm considering taking Cutler at the 9. He's the best available QB out there. If I do this, I can redshirt Luck for another season, giving him another year to develop. I'm a die-hard Bears fan. I'm excited about the changes on the line and what Trestman brings to the table. I have hopes that Cutler can be a top-10 QB if things go well. If not, I can always take Luck off of redshirt and use him as my starter. So, talk me off the Cutler ledge with a reality check please.
Cole Houchens (mufreesboro, TN)
I am very intrigued by Marc Trestman. He looks like a real genius/innovator type guy. You flip through the numbers his offenses have put up in the last 20 years, and it’s impressive. Maybe he’s the guy to tap into Cutler’s potential. But whether he can actually do that, we’ll see. I’m of the school of thought that the No. 1 key attribute for a quarterback is to make those key split-second decisions. It’s third-and-goal at the 6, and they throw a blitz at you: where does the ball go? Some quarterbacks have that knack to come up with the key play. Others tend to force throws, hold the ball too long or throw it to the wrong guy. Thus far in his career, Cutler has been in that latter group. Inside the 10 over the last three years, he’s completed only 31 of 78 passes. That’s under 40 percent, and with just 21 TDs. He’s had 3 sacks and 2 interceptions in that area. So before I really hop on the bandwagon, I want to see him run that offense in the preseason. The key to your little scheme, I think, is the ability to activate Luck off the redshirt. You would cleverly like to stash him until 2014, but you will have to use him if Cutler isn’t clicking.
Question 4
D/ST are fairly prominent in our 12-team non-PPR league; in addition to the regular points awarded, we give points for points allowed (we don't take out points allowed by the teams' offense on INTs, fumbles, etc.): 15 for a shutout, 12 for 2-7 PA, 9 for 8-14, 6 for 15-21, 3 for 22-28. -6 for 35+ PA. Anyway, using your projections, this makes the top 12 D/ST units on par points-wise & scarcity-wise as WRs. Would you still advocate waiting until the late late rounds (we have a 20-round draft) to draft one or is it worth it to grab one of the top-tier units in the middle rounds?
Scott Anderson (LAKEWOOD, CO)
Anytime you’re reading the scouting reports on defenses, you’ve got to keep in mind that the author is trying to write for everybody. TD-only. TD/Yards. Points allowed. 8-team leagues. 16-team leagues. Everybody. So factor that in when they write, “Don’t take a defense early.” To get meaningful opinions, you’ve got to take a careful look at your exact rules. In your format, you’re greatly enhanced the power of defenses by giving significant points for limiting opposing offenses. I went in and checked the numbers. In your format, the top-10 defenses typically score 200-plus points. The bottom-10 defenses tend to score under 160 points. It’s going to be tough, of course, to latch onto the No. 1 defense (or even one in the top 3), but you want to give yourself a good chance to finish in the top 5, where you could easily be pulling in 225-plus points. If you wait until the last couple of rounds, you easily could be down around 170. We’re talking about 50 points, and that should get your attention. I would try to play for the defenses that will finish with plenty of games allowing under 13 points. I think we have a general idea who those teams will be. Seahawks and 49ers for sure. Rams, Broncos, Steelers. Browns? And note that using this system, defenses aren’t a crapshoot. If you select a defense in the 6th round, it should be better than what you would select in the 13th. I’ve got the 2011 and 2012 numbers in front of me. If you look at the top-6 defenses last year, five of them were also top-10 defenses in 2011. All but two of the top-10 defenses last year, in fact, had also been top-10 defenses the previous year (the two exceptions being the Broncos and Chargers). All of the top-8 defenses in 2011 were again at least above-average in 2012. I see some wisdom in selecting a good defense in that format.
Question 5
Why is no one mentioning Super Storm Sandy in connection with the Giants collapse last year? I know these are professionals, but it is very difficult to concentrate on football when your house is destroyed and your family is in limbo.
ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)
It’s not something that occurred to me. The team’s collapse does correlate with the storm. They were 6-2 prior. After Sandy, they were 3-5 the rest of the way. In 2005, the Saints went 3-13 in the Hurricane Katrina year. They’ve won at least 7 games in each of their other 12 most recent seasons. Hmm. Maybe there’s something there.
Question 6
Ian, first of all, great product once again in this year’s magazine. In the running backs section, you mentioned that Bill Belichick (if her were in a fantasy football league) would "probably trade down" and stockpile running backs. I'm in a 12-team keeper league (standard scoring with 0.5 PPR) where you can keep a max of 3 players at the round you drafted them the previous year. You can keep a player for max of 3 seasons. I planned on keeping Stafford (5th), Demaryius Thomas (11th), and Alfred Morris (13th). Someone proposed to trade me the #24th pick, #48th pick, and Chris Ivory (13th round keeper) in exchange for Alfred Morris. I am picking 8th overall in this years snake draft. Should I use the Belichick strategy and stock up on additional quality draft picks given the attrition rate at the RB position? It should be noted that you cannot keep any player drafted in round 1 or 2, therefore the majority of top RB's and WR's are available. Thank you!
William D'allesandro (HUNTINGTON, NY)
Let’s try and work through this issue carefully. In a standard draft, I think it’s a no-brainer. Morris would be about the No. 20 pick. You’d be getting Ivory (who should finish this year as the 15th to 25th best running back, plus the Nos. 24 and 48 overall picks. Belichick says go for it. But hold on. This is a keeper league. So you’ve got to factor in that Morris isn’t only a keeper this year, you would also get to keep him in 2014 and maybe 2015 (not sure if you can have him for three seasons or whether you’re allowed to protect him three times. (I assume when you keep him in in 2013, it would be at that same, low 13th-round tender.) That makes Morris damn valuable, I think. With him, you get to keep that fourth-round pick that you’ll lose if you have to protect that player. There’s also some funny math with what a pick is. You’re saying it’s picks 24 and 48, but each team is protecting three players, so I’m guessing 36 of the top 50 players are probably already off the board. So it’s probably more realistic to say that you’re trading Morris for the 60th and 84th picks (plus Ivory). I don’t know all the exact rules and don’t have the exact lay of the land, but my hunch is you’ll be best serve holding onto Morris, reaping the benefits as Shanahan runs him into the ground over the next three years.
Question 7
Love your articles and opinions. My question: Is there a guideline as to how to do pay-outs for 1st-, 2nd- and 3rd-place winners? This is my first year being a commissioner but have been playing FB for 6 years and been with the same league the whole time. We pay out for 1st, 2nd, 3rd place & regular season champ. 3rd & regular season champ will get their money back, entry fee is $50, 12-team league, no transaction fees but they are capped at 15 transactions. Would like to know your thoughts?
Li Sing Khaw (BEMIDJI, MN)
If you've got 12 teams, that's a $600 pot. How about $50 for each of the three division winners, $50 for the team that scores the most points, $50 to each of the finalists in the title game, and the winner takes the rest? So if a team can win the scoring title and the Super Bowl, it would max out at $450. If a wild-card team got hot in the playoffs and won it all, it would win only $350. I agree that transactions should be free. Saves the commish trying to keep track of them. But I see no need to limit teams to 15. You want lots of moves, in my opinion. I suggest taking away that restriction.
Question 8
Why no IDP team capsules? Long-time customer here (since ‘93) and we have had IDP's in our format since day one. I found your defensive team capsules very useful, especially the position changes & free agent pickups with their stats right there in an organized manner. Please consider adding those back for next year's magazine.
Rob Bustard (MATTHEWS, NC)
Let’s see what the other readers say. We can go back to the other format if that’s what people want. The thought on our end was that when you consider how many defensive players are drafted in those IDP, nobody really cares about two thirds of those guys we were listing. So why not make more of an effort to rank and grade the defensive guys that people actually care about? Maybe in the 2014 magazine, it would make sense to also include stats for those guys. Let’s let others weigh in on this topic. And if you want the stat numbers for 2012 for these guys, send in an email. I believe Andy has all the stats that in the past he’s put into the magazine.
Question 9
After a good deal of effort, I have finally gotten the members of the two leagues in which I play to consider switching to an auction format draft. How long would it on average take to complete a 10 and 12 team auction? Is there any information (tips) available on how to conduct an auction format draft?
Treavor Phipps (SALEM, IN)
They take just a little more time. I think you should plan on 4-5 hours for your initial auction. Set an order, 1-12. When an owner is on the clock, he starts the bidding on a player. "Stephen Gostkowski for $3". Then that owner serves as the auctioneer for that player. Once Gostkowski sells for $3, $4 or whatever, it moves to the next owner. There is an advantage in starting an auction, particularly with the $1, $2 and $3 players. Suppose you like the Rams defense, for example. Maybe you feel they're "worth" $3, so they'd be a nice buy at $2. You'd be more indifferent to buy them at $3, since that's only what they're valued at. If you're starting the auction, you've got the ability to start the auction at the $2 price that's the key point for one. At the end of the auction, when everyone's out of money, that order becomes more like a draft order -- first guy to start the bidding on every player is going to get him.