The NFL switched to the eight-division format, with 32 teams, in 2002. Since that time, every year at least one last-place team has made the playoffs the next season. Who will be that team this year?
Somewhere, Pete Rozelle is smiling. He also wanted a balanced league with parity, and the NFL has that. Every year, it seems, some team goes from being terrible to making the playoffs.
I decided to pull out the old standings and check those numbers. Since the shift to the eight-division format in 2002, it's happened every single year. In each of those years, at least one team has moved up from the basement to making the playoffs.
And it's usually more than one -- 23 teams have done this in the last 10 years. In only three of those seasons was there only one of these teams.
| From last (in division) to the playoffs | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | W | L | T | |
| 2003 | Dallas (5-11) | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2003 | Carolina (7-9) | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2003 | Kansas City (8-8) | 13 | 3 | 0 |
| 2004 | Atlanta (5-11) | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2005 | Washington (6-10) | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2005 | Chicago (5-11) | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2005 | Tampa Bay (5-11) | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2006 | Philadelphia (6-10) | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2006 | New Orleans (3-13) | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2006 | NY Jets (4-12) | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2007 | Washington (5-11) | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| 2007 | Tampa Bay (4-12) | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| 2008 | Philadelphia (8-8) | 9 | 6 | 1 |
| 2008 | Atlanta (4-12) | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2008 | Miami (1-15) | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2008 | Baltimore (5-11) | 11 | 5 | 0 |
| 2009 | New Orleans (8-8) | 13 | 3 | 0 |
| 2010 | Kansas City (4-12) | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2011 | Denver (4-12) | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| 2011 | Cincinnati (4-12) | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| 2012 | Washington (5-11) | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2012 | Minnesota (3-13) | 10 | 6 | 0 |
| 2012 | Indianapolis (2-14) | 11 | 5 | 0 |
So while it may seem weird, chances are at least one of the last-place teams from 2012 will make the playoffs. Probably two.
Of that group, I'm comfortable dismissing Jacksonville and Buffalo. Arizona and Cleveland are buried in divisions with three other good teams. So I guess a surprise team or two should come out of the group including Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Detroit.
What say you? Which last-place team has the best chance of making the playoffs?
--Ian Allan