Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this issue: various work-around and valuing suggestions for the Custom Player Rankings tool. How early should you draft a defense? Dynasty rankings. And what if you could select a quarterback as a flex player?
Question 1
Perhaps this is a better question for support than for the mailbag, but is it possible to access your preseason Excel spreadsheets from previous years? Specifically, I'd like to have access to the defensive projections from the last issues before each season started to compare predictions to actual results. Thanks, both for this and all the help over the years. You truly are the best in the business.
john stolzmann (LAS VEGAS, NV)
It’s a key issue, and crucial in formulating draft strategy. It’s one thing to carefully work on projections to create the best draft board possible. But then there’s the reality that you’ll miss on a lot of picks. When you decide that the Seahawks have the No. 1 defense, what’s the probability that actually will happen? What are the chances of them have a top-3, top-5 or even top-7 defense? It’s an issue I was kicking a few weeks back, with both kickers and defenses. I looked at the projected No. 1 picks at those positions for the last 10 years, then looked at how they actually did. To settle on the No. 1 for each year, I pulled out the No. 1 from each year’s Experts Poll in the magazine (not my personal No. 1, but the average of 20 industry analysts). This is an 11-season sample I was looking at, 2002 to 2012. For those 11 defenses, they on average generated 6 more fantasy points (per season) than the defense that placed 9th in each of those years. If, with hindsight, you could take the Nos. 7 or 8 defense, you would have been better off in most years than the guy who’d gone in early and grabbed that coveted defense – the guy who this year goes after Seattle or San Francisco. That was my conclusion, and I found that predicting defenses was a little more reliable than predicting kickers (you got more bang for your buck drafting a defense). If you want to try to work some of your own numbers, send me your email address and I’ll hook you up with some files.
Question 2
I'm in a 10-team, total-points league. Traditional yardage points, no PPR. Each team is required to draft exactly 4 RBs and 5 WRs. We can start 3 RBs and 2 WRs or vice-versa. I'm considering RBs with my first three draft picks, and I'd plan to start all three. I could load up at a position of high demand while making the pool of starting-caliber RBs that much smaller for the other owners in my league. Is this a sound strategy, based on what we know so far, or am I just guilty of overthinking? And if you're on board with this, what undervalued RBs might fall to me in the third round? I was thinking guys like David Wilson, DeMarco Murray and Reggie Bush.
Paul Owers (WEST PALM BEACH, FL)
I don’t see it. Pull out the 90 guys you think will be drafted – 40 running backs and 50 wide receivers. Then look at the top 50 of those guys. These are the players who’ll be playing most weeks. In that subset, I see 25 wide receivers and 25 running backs. To execute your plan, you’ll almost certainly have to select a running back who’ll score fewer points than a wide receiver. And where does that get you? Well, I suppose it will force another team to take the wide receiver that you should have taken. That team will pick up the extra points that you lost, but might have to sweat a little later on in the draft? The math on this one doesn’t seem to work. You hurt yourself now in hopes of hurting another team later. No.
Question 3
I'm in a 12-team ppr league that starts a QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, and a flex. However, in this league QBs are eligible in the flex. I have been trying to figure out how to value QBs since we are able to start 2. With a late pick in the first round I was thinking of taking 2 stud qb's (say Rodgers and brees) to take advantage of this format. Looking at point totals from last year both of these players were in the top 5. My only hesitation is that the drop off in running backs is drastic and I'd be hoping to hit a lotto ticket for my starting backs. I was just wondering if you had any thoughts on the change in value for a QB in this format
JOHN MORTENSEN (GARDEN CITY, NY)
I’d go in with the expectation that I’d be selecting quarterbacks with my first two picks. It’s my belief that about half of the picks in the first two rounds should be quarterbacks. The big studs are still part of the early rounds – Foster, Peterson, A.J. Green, Megatron, etc., but you definitely want to have a quarterback to utilize in that flex spot. Even lesser quarterbacks – think Ponder, Weeden, Locker, etc. – will outscore all but just a few of the non-quarterback players. Every team essentially is forced to take two quarterbacks, and it would be nice to pick up a third in maybe the sixth round if the right guy is there.
Question 4
Thank you for your excellent resource. I have been using your products since 2001 with great success. I'm in a keeper auction league where you can keep 2 players from your roster from the previous year. Setting the Custom Rankings Generator to adjust for players that are already off the board has proven to be difficult. Ideally I think it would be best to be able to remove these keeper players from the Generator, but that is not possible. Do you have suggestions on how to best adjust the generator for this situation? I will know the keepers and their salaries before the draft. The keeper salaries count against the team's $200 salary cap.
ROBERT LINDMEIER (OREGON, WI)
Let’s do this. Pretend it’s a start-from-scratch league. Create the player values for all the guys. If the 12 teams are selecting 20 players each, that will be 240 players being selected, with salaries totaling $2,400. Now you have the fair market value for each guy. Jamaal Charles will show at $32 or whatever. That’s what he’s worth. That’s not what you should bid. If you do that, you’ll have a team that’s worth only $200 – a team that will be average. You’re looking to buy guys at 60-80 percent of their value, hopefully assembling a team that’s worth $260 or $300 at the end. Your complaint (and it’s a fair one) is that there’s a pollution factor in there. Those first 24 players, presumably mostly good players, are already gone. What if they went for a combined $50 more than they’re worth? Or $50 less? That affects the values of the guys you’re bidding on. I get that – it’s a good point. But it doesn’t really change from any other auction. I am just completing a player selection meeting in the Fanex Auction League. In that one, a bunch of other owners came out with guns blazing. When the auction was a third completed, teams had overspent (I thought) by a combined $200. It was so far out of whack that I was seriously mulling re-setting the prices for the remaining guys. Instead, I just made a mental note for the remainder of the auction: ‘We’re way over budget right now, so sit tight – there will be a bunch of players going for way under their actual value.’ Your situation is similar. I think you could get by nicely by just creating the values and then making a mental note of the lay of the land. If it’s way off or you want something closer, you could tinker with the salary cap figures. That is, create the values, then see how much those first 24 guys are worth. If they’re “worth” $300 but are under contract for $200, that means the remaining guys should go for about an extra $100 combined. So go into your auction setup field and change the amount each team is spending. Change the cap for each team from $200 to maybe $210 or $215. When you find the number that results in an additional $100 being spent on the players outside those first 24, that’s the number to work from.
Question 5
Okay. Starting a new keeper league (never done one before) reviewed your Keeper league rankings on page 29, but I don't see any OVERALL rankings. Could you please supply a list of say the first 20 or so players in a PPR with yardage?
MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)
Leagues and scoring systems vary. With your league being a PPR, I think wide receivers should be the main position in the first three rounds. Those guys are big scorers, and they have longer careers than running backs. A.J. Green, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb. These are good building blocks. You can balance that against (I think) most guys in your league wanting to select running backs early. Those guys can have a nice impact in 2013, but will Arian Foster or Adrian Peterson even be in the league in 2016? We’ll see. Same kind of deal with quarterbacks. I like the franchise passers, and it’s a quarterback-driven league. Look, for example, at Andrew Luck. He’s 23 and he’ll be a great quarterback for maybe 15 years. I’ve got him as the No. 2 quarterback on the board. But Andy Richardson posted the results of a dynasty draft back in May, and I think Luck went in the 5th, 6th or 7th round. I think it was the 5th. I thought that was crazy. But with there being a whole bunch of good quarterbacks available, it’s hard to make the case to take a guy like Rodgers or Luck in the first round. Chances are there will be some quarterback available in the 3rd or 4th round that really makes you smile. It’s an area of fantasy where I don’t think everyone will fall into a formula system of drafting, and that should affect your strategy. You don’t necessarily take the best guys, you instead draft with what you think you can get away with. If I’m drafting against 11 other Ian Allans, I would select Luck in the first round. I would not feel pressured into forcing picks on a gamble-type running backs with short shelf lives. I mean, wind the clock back to 1998. Who would you select that year, Peyton Manning? Or Curtis Enis or Fred Taylor? Taylor had some good years, and he’s a running back, but Manning has been a difference maker for years and years. It’s hard for us to post an overall top 20 for a dynasty format because of the variance in rules. What’s the scoring system? You starting three receivers or a flex? Are we tossing guys back after five years? etc.
Question 6
Long time reader. The Index has helped me win my very competitive league three times in the last 10 years, and a top 3 finish another 5 times. Thank you for continuing to put out a great product. I have a question about the custom ranks generator (I know you get one of these every year, so I thought it ought to be me who asks this year!). I'm in a 12-team league, 15-round draft – so 180 players get drafted. We start 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE flex, 1 K, and 1 Def. What would you put for the # of each position to be drafted, and the # above minimum? Here is what I have currently (max/above min): QB: 19/16 RB: 62/40 WR: 60/35 TE: 13/12 K: 12/2 Def: 14/7 I get the sense that my TE number and probably the RB/WR maximum numbers are off.
George Johnstone (Linfield, Ore.)
I have no problem answering these kind of questions. The custom rankings program is about the most important thing on the site. I WANT you to send in this type of question; I want you to get it right, so what you’re seeing is correct for your league. I appreciate you following my advice and looking at the auction side of the thing, even though you’re not in an. That’s how it works best. Looking at your positions, there’s one I’ll agree with fully – kickers. At defense, let’s leave it at 14 being selected, but please go down to only 4 being really better than the rest. At quarterback, you say 19 will be selected. Are you sure? How many were picked last year? Seems to me that few, if any, teams would be comfortable riding with just one quarterback. I’d like to see you go up to 24 quarterbacks, while simultaneous moving the baseline up from 16 to 14. Josh Freeman is our No. 14 quarterback right now, and I think you could get him for the $1.00 min. By moving the baseline up from 16 to 14, it will lower than franchise-type quarterbacks in the early rounds (which I think is good). There is a flex position in this league, so it makes some sense to compare RB, TE and WR. When picking that flex starter, they’re really all just one position. And when you do that, your levels for those positions don’t look logical. You’ve got only 35 wide receivers being worth more than $1.00, so some wide receivers – Justin Blackmon, Anquan Boldin, Danario Alexander will be lesser, baseline-type players but will outproduce running backs that you say are valuable. I would like to see the baseline for wide receivers pushed down to 39. Brandon LaFell (#40); I think he’s the best wide receiver who’s worth no more than $1.00. If you’re not in an auction, think of it this way. Who’s the best receiver you’d be willing to have on your team, but would not be willing to make a priority? That’s LaFell – I think. I’m adding other guys at other positions, so roll wide receivers down to 55 total – 55 being selected, and 39 going for more than the min. Tight ends are like quarterbacks; I don’t think you have enough listed. You’re saying Pettigrew, Gresham, Gates, Jared Cook and Fleener won’t be selected? No way. Everyone, I think, will want to pick two. I’d move it down to 19 at least, while simultaneously moving the other number up (I think only 9 will be selected for more than min). In practical terms, that Jermichael Finley. I will pay just a little more than min for Finley. I would not make the next guys a priority – Owen Daniels, Fred Davis, Dustin Keller; I’m not interested in using resources for those guys. So 19 and 9 for tight ends. At running backs, I’ll go 55 and 39. That makes Johnathan Franklin the baseline guy. I like Franklin as a sleeper-type back, but I’m not interested in using up resources to get him.
Question 7
I've been a longtime subscriber and supporter of your website/magazine and was wondering if you could possibly list a strategy for drafting based on position in the draft. For example in a 12-team league if you're drafting in the 9-12 range, focus on top WR's. If you draft in the 1-4 spot grab a RB, etc. I think that would be very helpful.
Scott Baldocchi (CONCORD, CA)
Scoring systems vary, of course, but as I stack the board, I see running backs at the top. Most of the top-10 picks should be running backs. (That’s with a standard scoring system). Then I think it swings to quarterbacks and wide receivers for most of the rest of the top 30. In a typical league, once those first 10 players are selected, I think half of the next 20 should be wide receivers. Then there’s another blip of running backs between 30 and 40, before wide receivers dominate the rest of the top 50. So in a ballpark sense, you’re probably looking at running back in the first round (again, in a standard-scoring league). Next two might be two wide receivers or a receiver and a quarterback. The fourth and fifth round probably will be a running back and a wide receiver. Be careful when selecting a quarterback. Once you take one, you’re kind of locked out of stopping other teams from getting really good deals on one that slides. If, for example, you select Cam Newton with a top-20 pick, what are you going to do when it’s pick No. 45 and Manning, Brady or Ryan is still on the board? Probably curse under your breath. Don’t be afraid to trade down; that’s always a way to create extra value. Before the start of the first round, most owners have trouble putting the correct value those early selections. If you can trade out of the first round and turn that into second- and fourth-round picks, you should come out ahead. If you can pull of getting a second- and third-, that’s a no-brainer.
Question 8
Love your mailbag articles. I was checking out the stat projection spreadsheet for 2013, the data is divided into 3 tabs (per game, per season, per 16 games) and I've also read the 'tab description'. Is it advisable to use these data as my cheat sheet come draft day? If so, which tab should I emphasize on ?
Li Sing Khaw (BEMIDJI, MN)
The rankings are the same in three tabs. The order of the players doesn’t change. We’ve got it three ways just because different folks (I think) might want to look at the numbers differently. The first tab shows averages PER GAME. So in that one, a running back who’s not even a starter (Toby Gerhart, for example) has better numbers than a lot of guys who’ll start a lot more games and post better numbers. You would never select Gerhart before Matt Forte, but if Peterson gets hurt, then at that point we think Gerhart will be more productive than Forte. The third tab is exactly the same as the first expect all of the numbers are multiplied by 16. There, it’s season totals. But again, same deal. You wouldn’t take Gerhart before Forte – unless there was a preseason injury and Gerhart entered the season as a starter. If you want to start working with the numbers, the second tab is the one you’ll want to access. There, you’re getting the full-season actual numbers. There, for Forte it’s his per game numbers multiplied by 14 games, which is what we’re projecting he’ll play. For Gerhart, his total come from his individual games multiple x 3 games (his expected number of starts) plus 13 games times what he’ll do as a backup.
Question 9
I'm in a dynasty league and basically the draft is for rookies and mid-season pickups. I've traded my way to having the 2nd, 6th and 7th picks overall. Once drafted, we can sign players to long-term deals after their rookie season, up to 5 years. How would you rank these players? I currently have Jamaal Charles, Brandon Marshall and Russell Wilson on my team: Colin Kaepernick Tavon Austin Eddie Lacy LeVeon Bell Montee Ball Lamar Miller DeAndre Hopkins Giovanni Bernard Danny Amendola I'm looking for players who can help me for years to come. I believe the person with the #1 pick will take Kaepernick. Any and all help appreciated!
JERRY ENGER (GLENMOORE, PA)
It would be nice if the other select Kaepernick. That would save you the issue of having two starting quarterbacks (plus Seattle and San Francisco both have great defenses, so you’d have to start one of them in those two games each year). I’d select Austin with the No. 2 pick. He should catch a lot of balls, and I think he’ll score on kick returns and run for 100-200 yards every year as well. I think he’ll be a real star. Amendola should be better than Austin this year, particularly in a PPR format, but he’s older and doesn’t have the same after-the-catch ability. He won’t run or do anything as a kick returner. Plus you’ve got to factor in that Tom Brady’s starting to get up there. You can think about Amendola, I think, only if he’s still around at 6 or 7. You list nine guys, so two need to be tossed out. Lacy and Hopkins, I think, are those guys. Maybe they can play their way into the top 6 by looking strong in the preseason, but I wouldn’t select them right now. In grading those running backs, I’d be looking at Ball and Bernard as the top 2 guys. If you’re more interested in 2013, you can think about putting Miller and Bell ahead of Bernard. But if you select Austin No. 2, then I think you’re just settling for what’s still there at the bottom of your top 7.
Question 10
I'm in a three-keeper league, PPR featuring 1QB, 2RB, 3WR/TE. Which three would you keep in this format? Options include: Reggie Bush Alfred Morris DeMarco Murray Randall Cobb Brandon Marshall
Eric Hachlinski (ROYAL OAK, MI)
Looks pretty straight forward to me. On my board, Marshall is about the No. 10 overall player, and Cobb and Morris finish around 20th. Those are the three guys you protect. Murray and Bush both have had injury issues. They’re OK, but I’ve got them down around the bottom of the top 40. Not even close. Now there are a lot of fantasy analysts out there that just swear by the running back. If you send a bunch of emails around to the other fantasy mailbags, you’ll probably find some that will put Bush or Murray (or both) ahead of Cobb or Marshall (or both). But in the PPR format, when I push around the numbers, the lifeblood is those receivers who are catching 90-plus passes. To win in that kind of league, you need to get a bunch of those receivers.