Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Clarifying the all-important difference between fantasy values and fantasy prices. When does one make like George W and use his gut? Finding good auctioneers. Team touchdown projections. And will Peyton Hillis be the next Mike Alstott in Tampa?
Question 1
In your custom auction values, are your prices market value or your recommended 80 percent of market value?
Gary Viscum (PHOENIX, AZ)
Great question, and a good time to remind everyone. When the auction values suggest that Russell Wilson is worth $25, that’s just what he’s worth. If all of the players went for those prices, all the teams would be average (in our opinion). Those are “fair market value” prices, in other words. Your job is to collect as many players as possible for prices lower than what is listed. (Especially at quarterback; if Wilson is listed at $25, you wouldn’t want to buy him for anything more than $20.)
Question 2
What do you suggest a person do when the numbers say that player "X" is the #1 at their position but your gut tells you that player "X" most likely will not be able to live up to the expectations? Do you go with your instincts or with average return on investment? Average return on investment is why I don't think you missed the mark on Peterson last year as the reader suggested in the magazine. Average return on investment said that a RB coming off knee surgery isn't likely to be the #1 RB that year.
Treavor Phipps (SALEM, IN)
We’re a scouting service. We look at all the players carefully. We take an in-depth look at each team in the offseason, creating projections for each of its players during that process. That gives us initial rankings for everybody, then those have to be maintained. When the Jets sign Braylon Edwards, you have to go in and decide whether that means the team will finish with more passing yards and touchdowns, and how it might affect the other pass catchers – Holmes, Kerley, Hill, Cumberland, Winslow. We track all the developments during training camp, and we watch all of the preseason games. If, in those first three exhibitions, Edwards is working with the first-unit offense and playing well, then we need to go back in re-work the projection, increasing his and moving somebody else down. Ultimately, though, we’re scouts. You’re the GM, and you have to take those reports and recommendations and decide how to use them. You have the advantage of having played in your particular league in the past. Maybe, for example, we’ve got Cam Newton slotted as a top-15 quarterback, but you know via the drafts from the last few years that nobody will take a quarterback in the top 30 overall. In the end, your team should be built from a combination of our scouting combined with your gut and common sense.
Question 3
Do you think Tampa Bay will use Peyton Hillis in goal-line situations? How does this signing affect Doug Martin’s value?
ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)
I think Hillis will be the backup. The Bucs don’t have much else. They traded LeGarrette Blount, and their other guys are just youngsters – Michael Smith, Mike James. Hillis isn’t what he was in the past, but he’s still only 27 and a former 1,000-yard rusher. I could be wrong, but I don’t see them trying to turn him into their designated touchdown plunger inside the 2. Martin’s still the clear guy now.
Question 4
Where can I find the total number of offensive touchdowns and total points scored that you project for each of the 32 NFL teams this season?
DAVID GARRICK (Coronado, CA)
That’s part of what I do. I start by projecting a total for each team (then that production is divided between its players). We don’t publish the team projections anywhere, but I’m always happy to share them. Here are my current projections for offensive touchdowns by each team. Let me know which teams you think I have too high or too low.
| Offense | TD |
|---|---|
| New England | 52.0 |
| New Orleans | 51.2 |
| Green Bay | 50.4 |
| Denver | 49.3 |
| NY Giants | 45.9 |
| Seattle | 44.0 |
| Atlanta | 43.5 |
| Washington | 41.9 |
| Houston | 41.8 |
| San Francisco | 41.6 |
| Carolina | 41.4 |
| Cincinnati | 41.1 |
| Indianapolis | 39.0 |
| Dallas | 39.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 38.9 |
| Baltimore | 38.7 |
| Detroit | 38.4 |
| Chicago | 37.0 |
| Minnesota | 36.2 |
| Philadelphia | 36.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 34.6 |
| St. Louis | 34.1 |
| Buffalo | 32.2 |
| Kansas City | 32.0 |
| San Diego | 32.0 |
| Cleveland | 31.4 |
| Tennessee | 31.4 |
| Miami | 29.3 |
| Arizona | 28.6 |
| Jacksonville | 28.5 |
| NY Jets | 28.3 |
| Oakland | 28.3 |
Question 5
Man we have trouble finding a quality auctioneer every darn year. What are your suggestions in obtaining a good one. Money, beer ... what?
Bob Wilson (HAMEL, MN)
Every city has professional auctioneers – guys who do it for a living at charity auctions and whatnot. If you knew one of those guys, maybe you could get him to join your league. Maybe he could have a friend or relative in the league at a discounted price if he agreed to handle the auction duties. But every league I’ve ever been in, we’ve rotated those duties. When it’s your turn to nominate a player, you start the bidding and also run the auction for that player.
Question 6
I'm in a keeper league. It is half point PPR. Which one should I keep out of these three? Eric Decker, Danny Amendola or Antonio Brown? I'm confident Decker's numbers will decline. However, Amendola's health concerns scare me as well.
Jack Greenberg (OWINGS MILLS, MD)
Decker’s not in the mix. It’s Amendola or Brown. For me, Amendola is the guy. With all the injuries the Patriots have had at wide receiver, I think they’ll pump a zillion balls his way. He might catch 120 passes. Of course, Brown should be very good as well. He’s about all they have in Pittsburgh. He caught 66 passes last year, and that was despite missing three games (yes, there’s also no guarantee that he’ll stay healthy).
Question 7
Our league has become saturated with the use of your magazine and internet supplements! Any suggestions for finding value in the draft using your rankings when you know everyone else is using them too? (P.S. – They will all likely be reading this, but I thought it was a fun question).
Steven John (Milwaukee, WI)
If everyone is using my recommendations, then the game becomes to determine who’s the best at figuring out where I’m wrong. There are a number of guys each year that I’m down on, who are generally liked by others. You could take an ADP list and compare it to my rankings. Cross-referencing those lists, you could identify maybe two dozen guys that I’ve got a lot lower than the general expectation. Robert Griffin III, Wes Welker and Anquan Boldin would be on that list, for example. You could identify those players, then carefully research them, trying to pull out a few where you think I’m wrong.
Question 8
I think I have a very eccentric league. We are allowed to start a 2nd QB in our flex position and draft an offensive rookie. Looking at my customized rankings that you have gratefully provided, It seems that I should follow a draft strategy where I draft two QBs immediately and then take best available RB/WR or even IDP based on the rankings. Am I crazy?
James Tiffany (Manteca, CA)
I don’t have the customized rankings in front of me, but that sounds right. In those kind of leagues (where you can start a quarterback in the flex spot), you get into the area where you have to look at how many more points Joe Flacco is going to score than Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy (who would never be selected after Flacco in a regular draft). Flacco is an every week starter in that format. You also have to increase the placement of the rookie running backs (in particular, Bell and Ball) and receivers (Austin definitely). Those guys not only can start at their regular field positions, but also can fill in at the rookie spot. Same goes for those two rookie kickers, Sturgis and Hopkins. I would consider selecting E.J. Manuel pretty early – maybe as high as the fifth round. Once he wins the starting job in Buffalo, he’ll be the most valuable player to plug into that rookie slot. I’ve never played in a league with IDP, so I’m not sure exactly where they should fit in. (Andy Richardson does our projections for those guys.)
Question 9
I am in a keeper league where the defenses score points for yardage given up and points given up. Is there any way these could be incorporated in the scoring profile area?
KEVIN DALLAS (COVINGTON, KY)
It’s something we need to work in, I’m just not quite sure how to do it. With that custom scoring deal, I really fear that I alienate and scare off guys by making it too comfortable, and getting into extra boxes for yards and points allowed by defenses no doubt would add many boxes to satisfy a very small number of guys. And it would be hard to do, since so many guys are handling defenses in different ways. Some will want straight yards. Others will want run yards and pass yards separately. Many of these categories in many of these categories no doubt will be of the complex, tiered-based variety. On my end, my preference is for simple, straight-forward scoring. For example, defenses get a half point for every point under 24 (22 points allowed = 1 point, 18 points = 3, etc.) And same for yards. But most leagues, I’m guessing, will instead have tiers. “We give 8 points for shutouts, 5 for 2-7 points, 3 for 8-13, etc.” And when we go down that road, we’re no doubt going to annoy many of the readers by not hitting on their exact tier. Some leagues will give bonuses for holding opponents to 10-14 points. Others will be 10-17 or 8-13, etc. So let’s do this. You send in your scoring system, and I’ll try to work something up for a future mailbag. We do project pass yards, run yards and points. It’s in the Excel file that you can access as part of your package. I’ll use those projections and try to figure out just how significant the points and yards dimension in your league is.
Question 10
Under the customizable scoring systems, I noticed you have FFPC. Would I be right in assuming this is the actually FFPC scoring system with 1 PPR and 1.5 PPR for TE and lineups with 2 flex players? Thanks for the time and I love the magazine. It is always the primer to my season.
Preston Pickens (CYPRESS, TX)
Yes. That’s the one. I was just trading emails with one of the programmers yesterday. I wanted to make sure it was set up properly because of the wrinkles in the scoring system (most notably, the extra half point for tight ends). I am confirming that everything is set up properly. Right now, for the “overall” in that league, it’s set up to run off the specs I requested last August. In that kind of league, with the tight end scoring and the double flex players, I asked that they just lump the wide receivers, running backs and tight ends into one “position”. That is, with the double flex players, I wanted it set up so that if a tight end is going to score 180 points and a running back is going to score 170, I want the tight end ranked higher on the overall board. In the existing specs, I have speculated 170 RB-WR-TE will be chosen, with 105 being what we might call “significant” players – worth more than the minimum $1.00 salary. Early next week (Monday or Tuesday), I will go thru the FFPC scoring carefully, checking all of the numbers for that format. Mostly, I just want to make sure that if it’s set up with the 170-105 specs, there will be enough players at the different positions that the rankings will be what I want.
Question 11
I am in an 8-man PPR keeper league. I can keep 1 player on my roster but I am having a hard choice between the two: Martin RB Tampa Bay and Dez Bryant WR Dallas. I lose the draft position based on where I drafted last year (Martin 4th round and Dez Bryant 5th round). What would you recommend?
TIMOTHY WILLIAMS (BEL AIR, MD)
It’s Martin, and I don’t think it’s as close as you suggest. Martin is arguably the No. 1 pick overall in that format, while Bryant will be picked in the late first or early second. If you were to poll 100 fantasy leaguers, I think 90-plus percent would opt for Martin.