Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition of the bag: Why you should be skeptical of "Average Draft Position" data. Offenses that make defenses look good. Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball on the fantasy teeter totter. And why Ian doesn't want to draft Reggie Wayne.

Question 1

I'd like to talk about Reggie Wayne. His targets were more than 2-to-1 over T.Y. Hilton, but with the change of the offensive coordinator, will Hilton's targets increase dramatically? Or will these be filtering down to the TEs? Or is it more likely that Wayne's numbers will remain about the same?

GARY DETRICK (CARLSBAD, NM)

As I tried to outline in the magazine, Wayne is a guy I’m not really excited about for 2013. I think he’ll be the oldest starting receiver in the league this year – not an ancient guy, but getting up there. Last year, he started off really strong, then tailed off as Andrew Luck (I think) got more comfortable finding his second, third and fourth receivers. In the first half of the season, Wayne averaged 104 yards and accounted for 35 percent of the team’s receiving yards. In the second half, he averaged 65 yards, with his slice of the pie dropping to 26 percent. Now they’ve got a new offensive coordinator in there (Pep Hamilton), so they’ll be re-working in the offense. When Hamilton was working with Luck at Stanford, over half of his touchdown passes (20 of 38) went to tight ends. I’ve seen a few articles suggesting Coby Fleener is ready to start playing like the elite tight end they thought he could be when they used the high draft pick on him a year ago. They’ve also got Dwayne Allen, who outplayed Fleener when they were rookies. Then there’s T.Y. Hilton; he averaged 67 yards in his final 10 games last year, with 7 TDs. They’ve also signed Darrius Heyward-Bey to be a field-stretching guy. And they’ll throw more to their running backs this year. As you try to read the tea leaves and put the puzzle pieces together, it seems to me that Wayne is a guy who used to be good – used to be the big guy. His role is shrinking. So while I am projecting Wayne to be this team’s No. 1 receiver, he’s not a guy I would want to draft. Never catch a falling knife; isn’t that what they say?

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Question 2

Two questions for you. Is there a way I can take my custom rankings and add an average draft position next to it? Is there a way to use a moniker instead of a name when participating on the index website?

Adam Bjork (SAVAGE, MN)

Two good questions in one letter. I love it. Let’s be careful with “Average Draft Position”. What are you buying? When somebody says, “this is Danny Amendola; his average draft position is 6.07”, what does that mean? Ideally, it means that of the thousands of other leagues, he’s being selected at spot 6.07. So maybe that means you can wait and select him late in the fifth round or early in the sixth. But what do we know about these leagues? Are they PPR leagues? It may be that when you go back and look at the data, Amendola is going at 4.03 in PPR leagues, and he’s going at 8.05 in TD-only leagues. And when was the information compiled? If you go back to late August last year, Alfred Morris probably had a crap ADP number. In early August last year, nobody was drafting him. But as I recall, he played pretty well in the first preseason game, started nailing it down the next week against the Bears, and then pretty much removed all doubt in the third preseason game against the Colts. Now if you were using this ADP data in a late-August draft last year, would it include the thousands of early-August drafts before it was clear Morris was going to be the starting tailback there? If so, maybe he’s got an ADP number like 14.03, and you put him off until the10th round, thinking you’re going to get him. So I see a number of problems with ADP. For me to work with ADP on my draft board, I want to make sure that somebody I trust is generating it on the other end. Namely: when was it created? And using what league format? I like the other issue you raise as well. The one about creating a username or handle. I think there are more than few readers out there who would be more likely to send in Mailbag questions if they could avoid sticking their real name on there. Spider612, Mr_Fantasmo, GoodNewzKennels, etc. I will run it by the higher-ups. Maybe there could be profile photos on there as well.

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Question 3

I am in a 12-team keeper league and was wondering if you could rank the rookies based off of a PPR format. We start 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 TE, and 1 K. I would just like to know the top 15 or so. Thanks.

Chris Faxel (ORLAND PARK, IL)

With the flex, I will definitely put Tavon Austin No. 1. I think he’s one of the those guys who could be catching 80-100 balls for a lot of years. Might run for 100-200 yards per year as well. Then I would flip over to the running backs. Bernard, Bell, Ball. For instant impact (with one eye on 2013), I’d rank them Bell-Ball-Bernard. Bell is the most likely/certain to start on opening day. If we can definitely set aside 2013 and just look at long-term value, then I’ll go Bernard-Ball-Bell. Bernard could be a Ray Rice type of guy who’s catching and running. I see those two backs (Rice and Bernard) as very similar. The same kind of body type and playing style, and drafted in the same area. Rice was more proven and tough as a runner in college, while Bernard was a lot of more productive as a pass catcher. Seems hard to believe, but go back and look at the rookie scouting report on Rice. He wasn’t used much as a pass catcher at Rutgers, so there were questions about how effective Rice might be in passing situations. That’s four guys. You want 15. I’ll go with the two first-round receivers next, DeAndre Hopkins and Cordarrelle Patterson. Then I’ll go with three more running backs: Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael and Johnathan Franklin. To me, Michael is looking more and more likely to be next in line at tailback in Seattle after Marshawn Lynch expires. Lynch is a violent runner who takes a lot of punishment, and he’s getting older. Michael has played well all along for the Seahawks in the various practices and workouts, while Robert Turbin is on the PUP list. As the No. 9 rookie, I will toss out Tyler Eifert. A tight end, which is a lower-importance position, but he’s got big-time catching skills. Then I’ll go with Aaron Dobson; looks like he’ll start for New England. Then I’ll try the quarterback E.J. Manuel. To close it out, I’ll go with wide receivers: Justin Hunter, Robert Woods, Terrence Williams and Keenan Allen.

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Question 4

Long-time reader here. I pick 2nd in my upcoming draft and, assuming AP goes #1, I'm choosing between Foster and Martin. With my league's scoring settings, Martin only finished behind Foster by 3 pts for the season last year. I used the your Custom Scoring settings and it still tells me Foster is the guy, but not all of the scoring setting in my league are available in your Custom Scoring. With that in mind, Martin only scoring 3 pts less than Foster on the season and some slight injury concern with Foster, does it make sense to take Martin #2 overall?

Jeff Noordhoff (AUSTIN, TX)

In theory, the injuries are already included in the rankings. I’ve got Martin projected to play a half game more than Foster. If you were to look at the two players apples-to-apples, Foster would move ahead by a little more. But they’re similar players. And for me, when I see that there isn’t much difference between a couple of guys, then I don’t worry too much about the statistics. Then you can start looking at strength of schedule and whatnot. Who’s going to come out of the gates really strong? Who’s got the better matchups in Weeks 15-16 (when we have our playoffs). Who’s younger? You go off your gut. If, for reasons you can’t quite put your finger on, you simply have a bad feeling about Foster, then you go ahead and select Martin with that No. 2 pick.

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Question 5

Everthing I hear from Denver’s camp is Hillman is the man. You have Ball ranked 11th, Hillman ranked 67th in your July cheat sheet. If I believe your ranking and pick Ball and Hillman is the man then my season most likely would suffer big time.

BEN HOGEVOLL (SILETZ, OR)

Agreed. I’ve seen the same reports. I still believe Ball will be the better back there, but it’s looking more likely that Hillman could start the season as the starter, or that they could employ a committee situation or whatever. They’ve also got Knowshon Moreno. In the lastest version of the cheat sheet, Ball has fallen, while Hillman has risen. If I’m walking into a draft today, though, I would still select Ball before Hillman.

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Question 6

In our league, you don't draft a QB, you draft a team and get whomever plays for them. To evaluate Philadelphia, for example, would I take the production points from the custom ranking for Vick and Foles and add them together? That makes Philly QB almost as valuable as Dallas (Romo and Orton) which doesn't make sense, or does it?

Dave (MOJO) Smith (WALLS, MS)

In theory, you should be able to do that, but those numbers aren’t accurate. I’ve done some behind-the-curtains stuff to make Vick and Foles land in the correct spot on the board. So what you should do instead is look simply at the points per game. Romo is projected at 21.4. I’ve got him playing 15 games, and in the event Orton starts, he’s at 20.5 (so not much of a dropoff). With Vick, he’s at 20.3 (so pretty much the same as Orton, and a point back from Romo). Right now, I’m projecting Vick at 11 games. Foles is at 5 games – there’s a chance he’ll quarterback significant games – but I’ve got him at only 16.5 points per game. He doesn’t run like Vick. If Foles and Vick were both at eight games, we could split it down the middle and call it about 18.4 points per game. With Vick maybe/probably starting more, somewhere between 19.0 and 19.5 looks like the right number.

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Question 7

I ended up with two team defenses for $1 in a 16-team auction league by accident. Because both are top-8 defenses in your rankings, I am considering keeping two defenses for the first time in 20 years of playing fantasy football and playing matchups for the first part of the year. Do you have a list of top 15 or so offenses that give up the most defensive points from 2012?

RON KNOTT (RENTON, WA)

Here are the “best” offenses from 2012, using the scoring system of 6 points for touchdowns (including special teams), 2 for turnovers, 1 for sacks and 2 for safeties.

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Question 8

Love your product, thanks. In our 10-team non-PPR league we start 1qb, 2rbs, 4wr/te, 1k and 1def. I'm trying to adjust my custom rankings. Qbs get 6 points for all TDs and a bonus of 4pts. If their TDs are 50 yds or more and 1pt. every 50 passing yds. Should I set the expected QBs to be drafted at 20 and the number to be drafted for more than the minimum bid at 19? Your help with my custom rankings would be greatly appreciated.

Paul Davis (MINERAL CITY, OH)

How many quarterbacks typically get selected in your league? Get out the data from 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. Is this a deal where each team is required to select two quarterbacks? If so, then 20 is the number. If teams are allowed to select more than two quarterbacks, I would guess is would be a little higher – maybe 22-24. But for now, let’s assume that it’s 20 quarterbacks. Now keep in mind that everyone has a different list. Alex Smith, Michael Vick, Jake Locker, Carson Palmer are all guys who will be on some lists but not others. So if you waited until the last two rounds to select your quarterbacks, you wouldn’t get quarterbacks 19-20. You might get quarterbacks 16 and 18 on your board. Also keep in mind that it seems like every year some quarterback comes out of the woodwork and makes an impact. Nobody, for example, drafted Colin Kaepernick last year. You need to factor in that if you have a lesser No. 2 quarterback, that guy might be replaced by a much better option in mid-October. So I would suggest that you cheapen the quarterback position by suggesting that only 14 of the quarterbacks are worth more than $1.00 in the custom rankings auction format deal. Set it at 20 quarterbacks, but only 14 being worth more than $1.00. I think that’s the starting point for you.

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Question 9

Fantasy Index is by far the best magazine out there, cover-to-cover. Keep up the great work! I have a quick question about a scenario that wasn't really covered in the magazine. I'm starting a keeper league this year. 5 year cycle, 2 keepers per year. Starting lineup of QB, RB, RB/WR, WR, WR/TE, TE, K, D/ST. With the fact that we only have to start one running back each week and the limited shelf life of running backs, do I still stick with RB/RB draft strategy? Or do I play it safe and draft a top QB or WR in the second round?

J D ()

I wouldn’t lock into selecting running backs. I would look at production. If you’ve got a wide receiver who’s more productive than a running back, that’s the way I would go.

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Question 10

Hey I understand that J. Gordon will have a suspension to deal with, but can you tell me what the Week 3 redrafter will look like when he finally does get to participate? Do you project for him to be healthy for the remaining games? And just how productive?

GARY DETRICK (CARLSBAD, NM)

I’ll include Justin Blackmon in this discussion, since he’s the same kind of receiver (suspended for the first four games). I took the top 50 receivers on my board, then re-sorted them, setting aside games. That is, what if they were all simply guaranteed to play all 16 games? Blackmon ranks No. 26, and Gordon is at 41.

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