Ian Allan fields a host of fantasy football questions. In this edition: With Hernandez and Pitta removed from draft boards, should Jimmy Graham rise? What teams have favorable late-season schedules. Should we downgrade players who've had concussions? Why isn't DeSean Jackson ranked higher? And who's ready to play fantasy football for real-life dollars.
Question 1
Love Fantasy Index. Have used it for my league the last 12 years and have been very successful. My league has a playoff format the last two weeks of the season. I have the habit of drafting a great team that gets me to the playoff easily, only to have key players sit out or play one quarter in weeks 15 and 16. Do you have any recommendations for some players that look to shine those weeks (or have a particularly difficult match up or are likely to sit)?
Eric Rodriguez (SAN FRANCISCO, CA)
Teams with some pretty good matchups: Ravens (at Detroit, vs. New England), Carolina (home vs. Jets and Saints), Kansas City (at Oakland, vs. Indianapolis), St. Louis (home vs. Saints, Bucs), San Francisco (at Tampa, vs. Atlanta), Tennessee (vs. Arizona, at Jacksonville), Washington (at Atlanta, vs. Dallas). Of that group, Carolina and St. Louis are the two I like the most.
Question 2
Love your product. In the 11-year history of my 8-team league, I've been in the championship six times and won it three - including last year. Fantasy Index is the only product I've ever consistently used. Last year, based on your insight in the preseason weekly updates, I took Alfred Morris in the 14th round of our 17 round draft (and was roundly ridiculed by the rest of the league for the pick). Needless to say, Morris powered me to my third championship. So I'll be very eager to see who your deep sleepers are coming out of the pre-season in a few weeks. But here's my question at the start of camps - who are among your candidates to be this year's Alfred Morris?
Gavin Domm (SAN FRANCISCO, CA)
Johnathan Franklin. Did you see the picture of Eddie Lacy that was making the rounds yesterday. He looks like a cross between B.J. Raji and LenDale White. He’s a whale. I really think there’s a possibility that it will be Franklin who’s the main back in Green Bay. Now, there will be other good rookie runners – Montee Ball, LeVeon Bell and maybe Giovani Bernard – but you said the next Alfred Morris. Morris was an off-the-radar, rags-to-riches guy. As projected starters, Ball and Bell aren’t eligible to be in that class.
Question 3
Can you elaborate a bit on your TE rankings? In the magazine you had Graham ranked #30 overall (yardage league). At that point, there were a bunch of very good ones. Since then, Hernandez and Pitta have been removed from the rankings yet Graham hasn't moved from the #30 spot in either the 7/22 or 7/29 updates. I would have expected the top-tier TEs to move up a bit given the thinning of premium choices at that position.
GREGORY BLAKE (DALLAS, TX)
That’s logical. If the other nine tight ends in the top 10 were all injured, that would result in Graham being more valuable – the difference between him and the other tight ends would be greater. If none of the other tight ends were injured, the ranking would be unchanged. So it makes sense that when some other number of tight ends are injured – 2, 4, 6 – the shift should be somewhere between. But ultimately, that overall position for Graham is determined by where you set the baseline for the later tight ends. That is, when you get down to tight end 10-12, who’s the best guy you can get for essentially nothing. In an auction, who’s the best guy you can get for $1.00? And in a draft, who’s the best guy you can get in those late rounds (at a low cost – the equivalent of a $1.00 player). Now even though there are two tight ends removed, that doesn’t necessarily change. You’re still looking at guys like Fred Davis, Brandon Pettigrew, Jermaine Gresham and Dustin Keller – not superstars, but competent players. It’s a deep position, in part because fantasy teams start only one of them. On my end, there’s also the reality that on the weekend I’m running around trying to plug holes. When Pitta gets hurt, my focus is getting the team projections right for the other players – Flacco up a little, Rice down a little, Dickson up a lot, T.Smith down a little. It’s during the week, when I step back and take the overall look, that I tend to audit the baseline players at each position.
Question 4
I participate in a rather unique league. We all draft the same positions 2 QB, 4 WR, 4 RB, 2 TE, 2 PKs, 2 DTs, 2 STs, 2 OLs and 2 coaches. We start exactly half of our roster each week and though there are no 'rankings' for offensive lines or coaches, they are fairly easy to rate offensive lines from last year and a little adjustment from your OL notes/rankings and coaches you simple use the Win-Lose and over/under for the year. The kicker is that free agents are a bit hard to come by as this is a 16-team league with a bid-once bid-high free agent system. We have tried to come up with a way to hold down free agent bidding without success as we just don't have any plausible ideas that seem to be fair. We have a $100 auction initially, then have teams drop from $50 to $300 on free agents because if someone is desperate for a WR or RB (and they can't make a trade or the trade deadline has come and gone) then the flavor of the week might go for $30 or more. Any suggestions of an equitable way to handle this? Most suggestions restrict each team to a total budget, which seems to penalize the teams with more injuries etc.
Steven Little (FRIENDSHIP, NY)
True free agency? You sign players by outbidding your league-mates with real-life dollars? My first thought is that I want to see the tax returns of the prospective new owners. I would be nervous about competing in a league with a Jerry Jones or Paul Allen. I think most fantasy leaguers would shy away from this approach. It reduces some of the catch-and-mouse strategy of the game. In the pretend-world fantasy football, you have $100 of Monopoly money to work with. The game is to second-guess and torture yourself, wondering whether you need to get to $30, $40 or $50 to capture the backup who’s just become a starter. When you get into real money, then it becomes a question of how much you can spend without annoying your wife.
Question 5
With the news on Percy Harvin's bum hip who gets the bump in value? I'm leaning toward Golden Tate being a nice player this year. Seems in your rankings that TE Vernon Davis is a little low. Kaepernick's favorite target should go over 1,000 yards. He’s an easy top 5 guy in my eyes.
David Kennedy (STEAMBURG, NY)
You make it sound so easy. But when you say Davis is going over 1,000 yards, you don’t need to be here in January to answer the angry emails. I am in agreement that there’s some nice value with Tate.
Question 6
My league rewards return yardage (1 point per 25 yards). Those points give a little bump to players who also take the field as WR or RB. I tend to bump them a point per week on top of your projections. Guys like Sproles, David Wilson, Golden Tate, and Rueben Randle look like they will be returners. Does it look that way to you, and do you see others?
MARK CLURE (MOUNT SHASTA, CA)
Sproles will return both kickoffs and punts; he’s more of a 2 points per week guy. I’m not ready to commit to Wilson as a kickoff returner; he was great in that role last year, but he’s starting at tailback now – it’s unusual for starting tailbacks to also return kickoffs. I think Tate will return some kicks. He has some ability in that area (I think he returned a punt for a touchdown in the preseason last year) and Seattle is now wondering whether it wants to use Percy Harvin in that capacity – with the hip and all. Randle returned punts for the Giants last year, but it’s early. Also note that punts aren’t as valuable as kickoffs (Randle had only 108 punt return yards all of last year – 4 points in your league). It’s early, so we should talk about this later (let me see the teams in a couple of preseason games), but I will pass along a few ideas in case you’re drafting early. Randall Cobb has returned both kickoffs and punts the last two years, but with him playing a bigger role on offense now, I think they’ll probably strip him of those duties. Rookie receivers Cordarrelle Patterson and Tavon Austin have return skills; both of those guys might return both kickoffs and punts. DeSean Jackson indicates the new coaching staff in Philadelphia intends to use him on punt returns. T.Y. Hilton probably will return punts for the Colts; he had 300 yards and a touchdown last year. Jacquizz Rodgers and LaMichael James are among the best No. 2 tailbacks, and they also return kickoffs.
Question 7
You project the Cardinals to score only 28 offensive TDs. If that’s the case, Larry Fitzgerald can’t rate as high as you have him. Figure 8-9 rushing TDs including QB sneaks. That leaves 20 receiving for all the Cardinals receivers to split. Now I agree Arians will turn Palmer loose (like luck last year) but if Larry doesn’t get at least 8 TDs I can’t rank him over Cobb. Thoughts?
tavis medrano (san gabriel, CA)
On my board, I’ve got Arizona passing for about 21 TDs. Fitzgerald projects to account for 37 percent of them – about 8 TDs. With the Packers, I’ve got them at 36.5 TD passes. Cobb projects to catch 22 percent of those. That works out to about 8 TD catches. I’ve got Cobb a little higher than Fitzgerald on my TD-only board. Toss the yards in there, and Fitzgerald is a little higher.
Question 8
In a 10-team league that starts 2RB, 2WR, and 1 RB/WR flex. Scores 6 pts for all TDs, 1 pt for every 10 yards rushing and receiving, 1 pt for every 5 rush attempts, 1 pt for every 5 receptions. Rosters limited to 4 RBs and 4WRs. With this scoring system, in general, would it be better to start a RB or WR in the flex position?
Treavor Phipps (SALEM, IN)
Are points for rushing attempts and completions getting more common? Seems like I see it more. Rushing attempts aren’t a category I track, but you can work them in using our custom rankings. Right now, it’s set for 1 point for every 10 yards. You’re going .2 points for a rushing attempt. On average, rushing attempts go for about 4 yards. So that’s another .5 points for every 10 yards. So just go in and change that 1 point for every 10 yards to 1.5 points for every 10 yards. We do have receptions; you can project them at .2 points per reception. I put in those numbers and looked at the combined RB-WR-TE (you’ve got WR and TE in one position, right?). The top 50 includes 34 RB, 15 WR and Jimmy Graham. So looks like you should be hoping to land three running backs who can play.
Question 9
I have participated in the weekly lineup contest the last couple years, big fan. I am interested in entering the Experts Poll contest. I am aware it is due in before next weekend, but I cannot find the link. If possible, could you let me know how to access that so I can get in before the Hall of Fame game. Appreciate you taking the time to read this. I respect the magazine and the work you do, I am interested how my rankings match up with the experts. Contests like this intrigue the hell out of me, and winning a spot in the magazine would be a nice bonus.
SEBASTIAN FALSONE (PHILADELPHIA, PA)
I’ll send you the entry file. It’s an Excel deal – you just punch in your top 20 at each position. It’s easy. Once you’ve got it done, just email it back to FantasyIndexOpen@gmail.com. For guys who’ve already entered, they’re welcome to send in replacement entries closer to the Aug. 4 deadline (now that Pitta and Maclin are out).
Question 10
Since the NFL treats concussions to players very seriously today and repeated concussions can end a players playing time, also rookies coming into the NFL having concussions in college, may effect a fantasy draft choice this year. What current players and rookies have a history of one or more concussions to date?
CRAIG LEEDY (SACRAMENTO, CA)
Agreed. Good point. It’s something we should be tracking more closely. I don’t have an official list. Jahvid Best, obviously, is the poster child. He had concussion issues coming into the league. Austin Collie and Laurent Robinson are hoping to get back into receiver rotations; they’re concussion guys. Recall that Cecil Shorts III had some concussion issues late last year – he’s a guy to keep in mind.
Question 11
Ian, over the past few years, we've looked at a Ravens offense that was conceived, installed and run by Cam Cameron. When Caldwell was promoted last year mid-season, he of necessity ran Cameron's offense. But Caldwell's offense in Indy was significantly different. In the 2013 Draft issue, it appears that you expect no change to the offense. Anything you've read since to suggest a switch to Caldwell's playbook (because it matters)? Thanks.
Paul Desimone (HAYWARD, CA)
I don’t really have any idea what Caldwell’s all about as an offensive coach. When he was at Indianapolis, they had Peyton Manning and Tom Moore. Things were kind of all set up by the time he became the head coach there (and the team totally bombed when Manning missed the 2011 season). He’s not a Norv Turner or Andy Reid, where you can logically and easily work through it, projecting what numbers will rise and fall with him running the offense.
Question 12
Can you list the offensive players that are in a contract year, that have not signed new contracts to date?
DAN ISGRO (LAS VEGAS, NV)
I’ve got a lot of letters to work through this week, so I will pass on this one this time. I’ve listed them a couple of times. At least once in a previous mailbag, and they’re also printed on page 10 of the magazine.
Question 13
Why is DeSean Jackson ranked so low? I'm not saying I disagree, but with Maclin injured, his workload should increase, right? Do you think Chip Kelly's system will fail in the NFL?
Brett Wills (ASTON, PA)
When Maclin got hurt, I moved Jackson up just a little. He’s a big-play guy. He’s not a heavy-duty, featured-type receiver who’ll ever catch 80 balls in a season. And I don’t think Chip Kelly is looking for that kind of a receiver anyway. Look at what he did at Oregon, where they always had a ton of different guys catching 20-50 passes.
Question 14
<b>Question Alpha:</b> Some years I see your magazine on shelves at several retail outlets, and often I don't. I usually order online, but this year I saw it at Wal-Mart and thought, I'll pick it up here instead and maybe Wal-Mart will continue to stock it, which is good promotion for the magazine. Or was I wrong? Would you rather readers order from the website so you don't have to split the take with a retailer, or is it better to have it on retail shelves for the advertisement and brand recognition? <b>Question Omega:</b> Last year I drafted receivers with my two of my three top picks -- Victor Cruz and Julio Jones. Their end-of-year stats were fine, but their inconsistency was maddening, and cost me games. On any given week, it seemed that one or the other was certain to disappear, and rarely did they both excel simultaneously. This year I'd rather have players who'll post even, consistent numbers, than guys who'll hit a grand slam every fourth week and soil themselves all the others. Can you give us a handful of players in the top 10 at the Big 3 positions (QB, WR, RB) who are most likely to be consistent in their scoring?
Jacob Wilson (CRANDALL, TX)
You buy the magazine anywhere, and I’m happy. It doesn’t matter. As for receiver consistency, let me think about that one for a few days. It’s something that Mark Nulty was bitching and crying about in his weekend podcast. He doesn’t like Vincent Jackson because he’s too up-and-down – Nulty says he won’t even draft him. I don’t think Julio or Cruz (or Julio Cruz for that matter) are in the Jackson hot-and-cold class. Let me try to figure out if there are some receivers who are a lot more consistent than others. In the PPR format, you can go after the busy go-to type receivers who’ll catch 100-plus balls.
Question 15
I use your rankings as a starting point to building my own personal rankings list. My question is what would you say is the best and easiest way of doing that? I love the rankings that show yards per game and TDs but he custom rankings, which I need don't show that. It only shows the value. If I wanted a sheet with value, yards, byes, TDs and average draft position, how do I go about building that easily?
TYLER HAINES (LOVELAND, CO)
All of our projected numbers are available in an Excel document. Go to “Your Stuff”, then select the “Your Products” option. Once you get into the Excel document, you can view players in three different formats (per-game numbers, per-season numbers or if-they-started-16-games numbers).
Question 16
My question centers around wide receivers. My 3 keeps were Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe and Pierre Garcon. This is a PPR league and we can keep 10 players. With the injury to Harvin, can you give me 3 wide receivers who are under the radar who might break out?
JOHN SHELBROCK (FRANKENMUTH, MI)
You looking for top-20 guys? Tavon Austin, Antonio Brown, Danny Amendola. I don’t consider any of those guys to be “sleepers”, but I guess it all depends where you set your radar. If Percy Harvin misses the entire season, then we can start thinking about where Golden Tate fits into the pecking order among the top receivers. Tate is pretty good, and he’d be the No. 1 guy there. During the 2010 draft, I remember being confused when Dexter McCluster went a lot earlier than Tate. Tate is bigger, faster and was a lot more productive in college – had a much more extensive background as a wide receiver.
Question 17
I have bought your magazine the last few years and have been very impressed. I am in a 10-team league with standard scoring. I have the fourth pick and am going to pick a running back. However, in the second round I have a hard time finding a running back. I think both Gore and Jackson might be too old. I really like Ridley and think with Hernandez gone and an injured Gronk he could get more action in your projected highest scoring offense. However, I saw that you had him very low, why? And also, if you were in my situation who is a running back or two I could look at in the second round?
bill jones ()
Ridley isn’t much of a factor in the passing game. That hurts him in some formats. I agree that Gore and Jackson are too old to be considered in the second round. My guess is you should be selecting a receiver or quarterback in that second round.
Question 18
12-member league, PPR. Starting lineup consists of QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, 1 flex (RB, WR, TE). Difference is passing TDs are worth 6 points, with 1 point for every 25 yards of passing and -2 points for fumbles and interceptions. What does the 6 point passing TD do to overall QB drafting values?
marc price (kelowna, BC)
That will increase the value of quarterbacks. You’re talking about a 50 percent increase in the value of TD passes. They’ll sneak up in the overall (though you’ll still want to balance those rankings against where you think they’ll go in your draft – can you get a good one in the fifth or sixth round? To see my exact recommendations, use the custom scoring. Go to “My Stuff”, then pull down to the “Scoring Systems” option.
Question 19
I have a keeper question at QB. Passing TDs are 6 points, 1 point for 25 yards passing, 6 points for rushing TD, 1 point for 10 yards rushing, all TDs of 50+ yards get an extra 3 points. Which do you think is the better QB keeper and why: Brees for a 1st-round pick or R. Wilson for a 14th-round pick. Wilson's keeper value is much better long-term (you would increase keeper rounds by 3 for each year, whereas Brees would always be a 1); I have other keepers and extra draft picks that put me already ahead of the pack to win this year. Thank you!
Moishe Steigmann (Glendale, WI)
Wilson by a mile. You look at the combination of Brees plus a 14th-round pick and compare it to Wilson and a first-round choice, and it’s not even close.
Question 20
Love the magazine for years. Our league awards big bonus points for long touchdowns (run, pass, catch). Who are some players (RB, QB, WR) who would move up the draft board based on their ability for long TDs? Who are some sleepers that are more valuable in this type of scoring system?
KEVIN ANGEL (KATY, TX)
You can actually handle this in the custom scoring area. We’ve got all the guys graded for length of touchdowns, based on their speed and how they’re used. Go to “Your Stuff” and click on “Scoring Profiles”. It’s pretty easy.
Question 21
How I would set up the point system for a 8 man 2 QB league
Jason Nielsen (Delray Beach, FL)
You can do that in the custom scoring area. Go to “My Stuff” and drag down to “Scoring Profiles”. Tell it you’re in an auction league (even if you’re not). Tell it you want to see 28 quarterback drafted, and that about 20 of them are going for more than the $1.00 minimum. Set up the other positions appropriately as well, and you’ll be good to go.