ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp to Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: Which of the new head coaches will have the greatest fantasy impact?
ERIC CATURIA
If injuries had not hammered the Eagles through the first weeks of training camp, Chip Kelly's arrival in the NFL was quite compelling in both fantasy and reality due to his sustained success with fast-paced practices at the University of Oregon. However, the Cardinals new boss, Bruce Arians, will ultimately touch positively the careers of the players underneath him, after his overall handling of Andrew Luck and the Colts as interim coach last season, which resulted in AP Coach of the Year honors. With a competent quarterback (Carson Palmer) again in tow, as well as supreme athletes at wideout (Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd), Arians' pass-laden scheme should again produce friendly results. Fitzgerald especially is poised to experience a resurgence, following the least productive season of his nine-year career – 71 catches for 798 yards and four touchdowns – and the ever-improving Floyd distracting the opposition.
Eric Caturia is a writer/editor of NFL, MLB, and NBA content for RotoWire. He can be found on Twitter @etcat30.
BOB HENRY
I suspect most of the answers will be focused on Chip Kelly, but I'm going with Andy Reid in Kansas City. The Chiefs have been a team that's been expected to improve annually over the last few years, but it never materialized. Adding Reid was as big as any personnel move they made in the offseason because he's proven year in and year out that he can coach and his teams are almost always near the top of the league offensively. Reid immediately added Alex Smith, solidified the offensive line via the draft with Eric Fisher, upgraded their tight end position with Travis Kelce and Anthony Fasano, solidified the secondary with Sean Smith and Dunta Robinson, and consequently I think the Chargers and Raiders got worse. The Broncos may be the favorite to win the AFC West, but the Chiefs are more of a contender than they are a pretender as in previous years.
Henry is a senior writer/analyst for Footballguys.com since 2004 and an industry veteran of 17+ years. His responsibilities at Footballguys include leading the annual training camp reports, providing detailed preseason and year-forward projections during the season that help drive the Footballguys suite of mobile, web and desktop draft and in-season management tools, along with managing the depth charts and his popular weekly Sleepers column during the season.
PRETZEL MAY
This one has to be the Cardinals and Bruce Arians. He has already brought in a QB that should make Larry Fitzgerald relevant again and the RB situation looks to be Mendenhall's position to lose with very first team reps going to other people. Having those two things in place will make a huge fantasy impact and also open things up for the secondary fantasy players like WR2 and TE. It is not too often you get the reigning AP Coach of the Year coaching for a new team.
The May brothers have more than 20 years of combined fantasy football experience and are the co-founders of FantasyDraftMaster.com. In FDM's first 3 years as part of the Fantasy Index Experts Poll, they have amassed 1st- and 2nd-place finishes. The cornerstone of FantasyDraftMaster.com is the UberRank which is a revolutionary approach to the traditional fantasy football cheat sheet. FantasyDraftMaster.com also offers insightful and humorous commentary and recommendations on waiver wire pickups, lineup submissions and weekly pick em' pools. For more info on FDM, visit the web site or email info@fantasydraftmaster.com.
SAM HENDRICKS
Andy Reid in Kansas City. The team already had a ton of talent in Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles and now Alex Smith at QB. They have always been just a little off. They have never been able to put everything together like a good team should. Andy Reid will change that. Reid brings a track record of winning that Kansas City really needs. He will get them going in the right direction and fast.
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 20-plus year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). Follow him at his web site, www.ffguidebook.com.
TIM HEANEY
In terms of impact, I look for the biggest value increases across the board in each team's fantasy components. I would say the Browns' offensive philosophy could be their biggest boon under new coordinator Norv Turner. The question, however, pertains to head coaches, so I'll cite the Cardinals' Bruce Arians, who should resurrect Carson Palmer's career with the same expanded vertical horizon he instilled in Andrew Luck last year. If Arizona gets O-line protection, Palmer could bring Larry Fitzgerald back to top-3 fantasy status at his position; Michael Floyd will benefit from more single coverage and take a breakout leap; Rashard Mendenhall, working with his former Pittsburgh OC, could regain his almost elite production from his early years; and perhaps Arians will use tight end Rob Housler in creative ways. The chain reaction in the desert should dwarf the others listed above.
Since 1996, KFFL.com has been combining its award-winning news service with fantasy analysis. KFFL.com offers services including daily news, draft guides and in-season advice. Completely free, KFFL.com is your destination for fantasy baseball, football and NASCAR cheat sheets, tips, sleepers and much more. KFFL.com has won more than a dozen expert championships and was listed as "One of the 10 essential sports-related online destinations for fans, athletes and fantasy owners" by Time.com. KFFL.com is property of USA TODAY Sports Media Group.
MIKE NAZAREK
Andy Reid is a winner and he's re-signed and added enough quality players to make Kansas City competitive again.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached via email at miken@ffmastermind.com.
IAN ALLAN
I don’t see a knockout winner — one new coach who’s clearly better than the rest. I like the direction that seven of those offenses are headed (I see more positives than negatives with almost all of these teams). So I will attack the question from the other end. The Jaguars are the team I like the least. I expect they’ll be a little better (they can’t be any worse), but I don’t any reason to associate any of that with coaching. Cecil Shorts III was phenomenal last year, so in my eyes, he’s probably more likely to be adversely affected by the new offensive system — I liked the way they used him last year. They’re going to start working in Denard Robinson; he might be kind of fun and exciting, but from a fantasy perspective, he’s a negative — he’s just taking away touches from the guys who might actually be drafted. The Jaguars will be helped some by getting Maurice Jones-Drew back, but they still have the big quarterback issue. I think we can comfortably pencil them in for last in the AFC South.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
ALAN SATTERLEE
That’s a great question, and it’s hard to limit to one so I’ll go with a 1A/1B here if I may. If his career with Philadelphia is any indication, adding Andy Reid ought to have an immediate impact in two specific areas for the Chiefs: improved QB play (which will help Dwayne Bowe) and elite stats for Jamaal Charles. Reid has a track record of consistently creating RB fantasy stars (Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook LeSean McCoy). Arguably, none of them had the raw talent that Charles possesses. Charles is already a star though and is currently the NFL’s all-time leader in YPC average among RBs. Cleveland’s coaching change is 1B, not just adding HC Rob Chudzinski but OC Norv Turner as well. Look for Trent Richardson to potentially be a Top 3 RB and I think TE Jordan Cameron significantly breaks out this year (in addition to Turner’s track record with TEs, Chudzinski played TE in college and was a TE positional coach).
Alan Satterlee is Co-Owner and Chief Editor/COO of FantasyFootballWarehouse.com. FFW features comprehensive profiles for all the major 2013 skill-position rookies, its Trading Spaces series, the team Deep Dives, the Speed Bump competition plus draft strategies, rankings, projections and more. FFW runs in tandem with its dynasty site DynastyFootballWarehouse.com.
SCOTT SACHS
I believe the first factor to examine is team potential, as contenders tend to score more points; therefore have more draftable players than other teams--not always true, but let's follow that trail. So, adios Jax, Az, and Bills. Unlike many experts, I am not sold on KC at all--new coach, new QB, but same old record. Same thing for my hometown Brownies who have been anemic since their '99 return--sunnier days for the Dawg Pound faithful equate to just 7-9 or 8-8. That leaves the Eagles, Chargers, and Bears. Philly's Chip Kelly is certainly the most intriguing of the newbie coaches, but if he ends up with Michael Vick captaining the ship, I predict icebergs ahead. The AFC West is ripe for the Chargers, but their RBs are pedestrian and they miss Vincent Jackson. So, I predict Da Bearz under Trestman, the least known and arguably the least regarded of the rookie HC's, to get Cutler and his Air Bear offense, along with a capable ground game, to finally match Chicago's Def/Special Teams in potency resulting in a powerful playoff push.
Scott Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, offering LIVE Talk/Text/Email consulting & advice. Winner of Fantasy Football Index's 2012 Experts Poll & 2011 Mock Auction League, Scott can be found at http://perfectseasonffb.com/.
JAKE CIELY
I think the easy answer is Andy Reid in Kansas City. You can make a case for many of these. The Browns have a real chance to take a step forward on offense under Rob Chudzinski AND Norv Turner, but the talent level is a question. Well, that is to say, outside of Trent Richardson and Josh Gordon - post suspension. Will Jordan Cameron break through? Will Greg Little continue his improved catching? Can Brandon Weeden develop into a start-worthy QB? In Philly, we know Chip Kelly wants to run 600 plays, but we don't even know who he's using. LeSean McCoy should be in for a big year, but will Kelly mix in too much Bryce Brown? What will that receiving unit look like minus Jeremy Maclin? Is Michael Vick the starter or not? I think it ultimately comes down to three teams for major fantasy impact, and I go back to Kansas City. Why? We know Reid's style, and that means Jamaal Charles is primed for a huge year. But it doesn't end there. Alex Smith is one of the most accurate passers, and Reid can work with that. Dwayne Bowe should have a top-end WR2 season with more catches and less yards (PPR value folks). In truth, you can say if everything breaks right, the Browns situation will have more widespread fantasy impact. However, if you are talking elite-level talent impact, it's in Kansas City.
Ciely oversees the fantasy football staff for Football.com and assists with social media, including Twitter and Facebook. He is an award-nominated fantasy writer with over 15 years of experience. He started his fantasy sports career with his own blog and eventually became the Managing Editor at RotoExperts.com. He’s also a poker enthusiast, which is why you see many poker references, including his nickname “All In Kid.” Jake has also introduced new metrics to fantasy football analysis.
DAVID DOREY
While the easy answer seems to be the Eagles with Chip Kelly, the personnel may not be in place to see it bloom this year. It will be interesting and should be better but losing Jeremy Maclin and not yet knowing who the QB will be will depress this season. I like to see what Marc Trestman is bringing to Chicago where Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte should be perfect fits into his offense. Plus the scheme gets the ball out faster so Jay Cutler doesn’t get nearly so pummeled every week.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
MIKE CLAY
Several of these coaches are going to be making massive overhauls to their respective team's scheme, but I'm going to go with Chip Kelly because I feel he is the best coach in the group. Many point to the fact that Kelly's offense from Oregon may not convert well to the Pros, but that's a poor way to look at the situation in my mind. The best coaches on the planet don't force one scheme; they adjust based on personnel. We saw that with Jim Harbaugh making the best out of Alex Smith. We saw it when Bill Belichick moved to a two-tight end offense. Kelly is not a one trick pony and we're going to see that on display right off the bat. The Eagles are going to run the ball quite a bit, which will be a massive change from the Andy Reid era. Reid began moving to more two-tight end sets the past couple of years, but after the acquisitions of Zach Ertz and James Casey, Kelly will take that to the next level. I don't expect a seamless transition to the NFL for Kelly, but he's going to have the new-look Eagles pointed in the right direction sooner rather than later.
Clay is the Managing Editor and Director at Pro Football Focus Fantasy. It's there that he created a batch of advanced statistics, most notably average depth of target (aDOT). Mike also works as an NFL writer at Rotoworld.com and has contributed at PhiladelphiaEagles.com and for Athlon Sports.
MICAH JAMES
The biggest fantasy impact will come in Kansas City. In 2012 Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe certainly weren't fantasy afterthoughts, but Bowe registered his worst season in three years and Charles was maddeningly inconsistent. Head Coach Andy Reid will use Jamaal Charles' talents in a more efficient and effective manner. Charles' highest target total in his career was 64 in 2010 - by contrast LeSean McCoy saw 67 targets last season in only 12 games. Expect Charles to challenge for Top 5 RB status. Bowe seems content with his new deal and with the new coaching regime, and he will benefit from much-improved QB play and better play-calling. Bowe should post close to double-digit TDs and should tally about 1200 receiving yards, stats which make him a solid WR2. Reid has some key pieces in place in Kansas City and I expect both Charles and Bowe to deliver the goods for owners in 2013.
Micah James, the FFMagicMan, has been playing fantasy football since 2000. James won the FSTA Accuracy Rankings Challenge in 2012, finishing 1st out of 61 expert entries with an unprecedented Top-9 performance across all four skill positions. You can follow James on Twitter (@FFMagicMan) and be sure to listen to his weekly fantasy football strategy podcast, The Magic Formula.
ANDY RICHARDSON
New Bills coach Doug Marrone is talking as if he'll finally do what fantasy owners have been hoping for since Buffalo drafted C.J. Spiller two years ago: take the shackles off of his franchise back, without needing an injury to Fred Jackson to do it. I don't know if Spiller will actually get 30 touches per game, but it's nice to be able to draft him without worrying too much about his workload.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for 12 years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.
