ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp to Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: Which consensus first-round pick are you most likely to avoid?
MICAH JAMES
There really isn't one player with a current 1st-round ADP that I would go out of my way to avoid drafting. That being said, I am lower on Arian Foster than many of the other analysts I talk with. As I write this, Foster is still locked in at the 1.02 draft position, and I wouldn't draft him until 1.06 at the earliest. Foster's 2012 workload was enormous - he ran the ball 351 times in the regular season but lots of people overlook the 54 carries he tallied during the playoffs. Factor in receptions over his 18 games and you have a back who amassed 460 touches in 2012. I'd rather be a year too early that a year too late, and for me, 2013 is the year to pass on Foster unless he falls quite a few spots in that first round.
James, the FFMagicMan, has been playing fantasy football since 2000. He currently serves as Editor-in-Chief at FantasyInsights.com, one of the oldest and most-respected fantasy sites on the 'Net. James won the FSTA Accuracy Rankings Challenge in 2012, finishing 1st out of 61 expert entries with an unprecedented Top-9 performance across all four skill positions. You can follow James on Twitter (@FFMagicMan) and be sure to listen to his weekly fantasy football strategy podcast, The Magic Formula.
SAM HENDRICKS
In a 12-team PPR league that starts 1/2/2/1/1/1+a flex player I see 10 RBs and 2 WRs drafted (Perhaps TE Jimmy Graham with a late pick too). That means Calvin Johnson and either A.J Green or Dez Bryant and the top 10 RBs-usually AP, Martin, AF, JC, Rice, McCoy, Spiller, Richardson, Forte and Lynch. To be perfectly honest I see something in all of these players. Nothing stands out like in years past where I am staying away from someone. The first three RBs are studs (Martin may have a sophomore slump but nothing to avoid drafting him). Jamaal Charles will be exciting to watch in Andy Reid’s KC offense. Rice may lose some touches to Bernard Pierce but gain some with Pitta out. McCoy gets Chip Kelly’s new offense. Spiller has great yards after the catch and 30 carries a game is not out of the question. Trent Richardson played hurt last year and was a top 10 RB. This year he is healthy and gets Norv Turner as his OC. Lynch did well last year without Percy Harvin so why not the same this year. What’s not to love? If Alfred Morris slipped into the first round (say no WRs or TEs went other than CJ) then I might not pick him but instead go with a top 3 WR simply because I do not trust Shanahan completely.
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 20-plus year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). Follow him at his web site, www.ffguidebook.com.
CORY BONINI
I refuse to outright avoid any player, because at the right slotting anyone is worth a draft selection. At their current asking price, Doug Martin is just too rich for my blood. He racked up 45.3 percent of his 2012 rushing yards in just four games (averaged 66.3 in the other 12 games) and he scored eight of his 12 TDs in three contests. Furthermore, Martin enjoyed a nice day (160 total yards, 1 TD) versus a resting Falcons team in Week 17. That kind of inconsistency will kill fantasy owners in head-to-head leagues. His season-long numbers will be fine, but you basically have to spend the No. 2 overall pick to assure yourself of his services. I'd rather more consistency on a weekly basis.
Since 1996, KFFL.com has been combining its award-winning news service with fantasy analysis. KFFL.com offers services including daily news, draft guides and in-season advice. Completely free, KFFL.com is your destination for fantasy baseball, football and NASCAR cheat sheets, tips, sleepers and much more. KFFL.com has won more than a dozen expert championships and was listed as "One of the 10 essential sports-related online destinations for fans, athletes and fantasy owners" by Time.com. KFFL.com is property of USA TODAY Sports Media Group.
MIKE NAZAREK
I believe RB LeSean McCoy will catch less passes and see less overall work with RB Bryce Brown playing a bit more than just a backup. And with the loss of WR Jeremy Maclin, I'm shying away from McCoy this summer in the first round if at all possible.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached via email at miken@ffmastermind.com.
IAN ALLAN
I’m confident I won’t select Adrian Peterson in any league. He’s a good back — maybe the best in the league — but he seems to be the Nos. 1-2 running back on everyone’s board. I’m not that anxious to select him. I think Arian Foster and Doug Martin will catch a lot more passes, making them better options in a lot of fantasy scoring systems. And I’m not as locked into selecting a running back in the first round as a lot of other analysts.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
ERIC CATURIA
Due to the steep dropoff in running back talent, signal callers will be avoided in the opening round on most occasions in this corner. Clearly, Aaron Rodgers is a consensus first-rounder, with Cam Newton falling somewhere near the turn of the first and second rounds, but steady alternatives at quarterback can be found throughout any given draft. In an attempt to feature a strong stable of backs, the best available RB will be considered before Rodgers, unless of course the latter amazingly falls to the final slots of the first. At that point, if the following remain on the board – Trent Richardson, LeSean McCoy, or Chris Johnson – Rodgers would be tabbed due to the trio's injury or durability concerns, with the hope that one of the three remain with my second-round selection.
Eric Caturia is a writer/editor of NFL, MLB, and NBA content for RotoWire. He can be found on Twitter @etcat30.
ALAN SATTERLEE
For me it's Marshawn Lynch for a few reasons. First, while Seattle, will be a run -first team I just have a hunch he is due for injury, or at least his injury risk is greater than most with his violent running style. He had back issues last season and while he didn't miss a start, it does cause some game-time type decisions. Lynch also had 338 touches last year. All that is going to catch up to him some this season. Additionally, I am of the belief that Christine Michael is going to be a star running back in the NFL. Seattle will work him in some this season, plus Lynch's reception totals are likely to decline with all the backs they have (and he had just 23 receptions last season). There's also the off-the-field risks with Lynch. His rap sheet really is quite long. He had a hit and run, he's had a gun charge, now he's got a DUI hanging over his head. The DUI will almost certainly Lynch an NFL suspension, although it's looking likely that won't go to court until after the 2013 season. Regardless, you can wake up on any given day and see a headline of him being arrested. I absolutely would not spend a Top 12 pick on Marshawn Lynch. Even into the early second round, I would feel much more comfortable taking one of the uber-elite wide receivers instead of Lynch.
Alan Satterlee is Co-Owner and Chief Editor/COO of FantasyFootballWarehouse.com. FFW features comprehensive profiles for all the major 2013 skill-position rookies, its Trading Spaces series, the team Deep Dives, the Speed Bump competition plus draft strategies, rankings, projections and more. FFW runs in tandem with its dynasty site DynastyFootballWarehouse.com.
SCOTT SACHS
It's always good when I don't have to think too hard on a question: Jamaal Charles picked anywhere in the first round is way too soon. Look, just because there are less RB's in the gene pool in 2013, doesn 't mean you have to jump off the deep end in pursuit. If you do, you may find yourself gasping for air and treading water--which kind of sums up JC's career to date. Checking the numbers, J-Chaz has never had more than 8 total TD's in a year. Furthermore, he has just 24 total TD's in his 5 year career. While I am not a math wiz, getting 5-6 TD potential out of a Round 1 pick just ain't gonna cut it! I'll pass, thank you!
Scott Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, offering LIVE Talk/Text/Email consulting & advice. Winner of Fantasy Football Index's 2012 Experts Poll & 2011 Mock Auction League, Scott can be found at http://perfectseasonffb.com/.
JAKE CIELY
There is no one I would "never draft" because the price can always be right. However, because his current ADP is so high, "the price is wrong, Bob!" Dez Bryant should not be in the Top 12 (currently 12th on most ADP reports). I understand he was a monster from Week 10 on, but does everyone forget about Dwayne Bowe in 2010? That's my biggest concern. Are we looking at the breakthrough we all expected for Dez, finally? Or, is the Bowe circa 2010? I'd much rather wait on my WR and take Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas or Brandon Marshall (where's the love?) at much lower ADPs, or more so, my first RB than to risk a first rounder on trusting Dez Bryant to replicate 2012.
Ciely oversees the fantasy football staff for Football.com and assists with social media, including Twitter and Facebook. He is an award-nominated fantasy writer with over 15 years of experience. He started his fantasy sports career with his own blog and eventually became the Managing Editor at RotoExperts.com. He’s also a poker enthusiast, which is why you see many poker references, including his nickname “All In Kid.” Jake has also introduced new metrics to fantasy football analysis.
BOB HENRY
The issue of avoidance in the first round generally comes down to risk management. After all, you want your first round pick to anchor your fantasy team. If anything goes south with that pick, your team's chances for success take a huge hit. For me, the player that stands out is Arian Foster. If his ADP were around the latter end of round one I'd consider him on par with Trent Richardson (durability concerns) or Marshawn Lynch (legal, high usage), but since he's among the top 2 or 3 off the board, the risk is steeper. Foster's performance tailed off last year. Foster dealt with nagging injuries (he had a history of them in college), the Texans offensive line isn't as dominant as in previous years and Foster's yards-per-carry and other metrics have regressed. Now, if Foster falls to me in the fourth or fifth spot, it would be difficult to pass on him, but one can also make a great argument for taking ADP, Doug Martin, Calvin Johnson or even LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles instead.
Henry represents Footballguys.
DAVID DOREY
I am steering clear of Arian Foster. Still nursing an injury and three straight years of a killer workload sets him up for breakdown. Add in Ben Tate there to assume a bigger role and what should be a better passing effort means Foster comes over-valued from his last three big years.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
MIKE CLAY
Calvin Johnson is a player I don't expect to own in many leagues this year. I appreciate how dominant he is at the position (and he's definitely going to regress in the touchdown department), but the wide receiver position is very deep, while running back remains shallow. Johnson will usually come off the board during the mid-to-late stages of the first round. If I'm picking in that area, odds are that I'll lean towards Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, or Alfred Morris instead. It will pay big dividends come Round 8 when I'm able to easily take DeSean Jackson, Mike Williams, Miles Austin, or Josh Gordon as my WR3 instead of having to roll with Jonathan Stewart, Ben Tate, or Bryce Brown in my Flex.
Clay is the Managing Editor and Director at Pro Football Focus Fantasy. It's there that he created a batch of advanced statistics, most notably average depth of target (aDOT). Mike also works as an NFL writer at Rotoworld.com and has contributed at PhiladelphiaEagles.com and for Athlon Sports.
ANDY RICHARDSON
Not sure there's anyone I absolutely won't draft, but I guess I'm relieved when Marshawn Lynch goes off the board ahead of me. The high expectations for the team combined with ominous preseason developments (most recently the Harvin surgery) have me a little wary of leading off my draft with a violent runner with some off-field issues and a pair of capable backups. There are about 10 first-round caliber running backs, and he's the guy I'd take 10th among them.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for 12 years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.
