The number of 300-yard passers has exploded in recent years. But oddly, that hasn't been matched by a big increase in 100-yard receivers. Believe or not, there were actually more 100-yard receivers in 1995 than last year -- even with far fewer 300-yard passers. What the heck is going on? Ian Allan explores.
I posted a blurb about 100-yard runners yesterdays. It's part of a study I was doing. We're adding some new tools into the custom-scoring area, allowing for users to see how our player rankings change when players get bonuses for games with 300 yards passing, 100 yards rushing or 100 yards receiving.
So I was looking into the issue of when a player is projected to finish with 80 receiving yards per game, how often will he go over the 100-yard mark. I put together a proposal for those three categories and sent it along to the programmer. He's reviewing it now.
Anywho, while looking at the numbers for passers and receivers, I notice that 300-yard games have more than doubled. In the '90s, teams were averaging fewer than 2 games (per season) with a 300-yard passer. Last year, we almost hit 4 games per season.
The increase hasn't been as steep with receivers. We finished at 6 per team last year. We're up about 1 game (again, per team) over where it's been for most of the last 15 years. There were actually MORE 100-yard receiving games in 1995 than last year, even though 300-yard passers have increased by 50 percent since that time.
I think it's the multiple-receiver formations. More teams (I'm guessing) are doing a better job of spreading the ball around. To put guys over 100, you want a featured receiver in an offense that's getting the ball forced into his hands. More teams (again, this is just a theory) are now doing a better job of incorporating the other guys. I know tight end production is way up.
What do you think? Why aren't we seeing more 100-yard receivers?
| Average number of 300-yard passers | |
|---|---|
| Year | No |
| 1993 | 1.3 |
| 1994 | 2.3 |
| 1995 | 2.7 |
| 1996 | 1.7 |
| 1997 | 1.5 |
| 1998 | 1.7 |
| 1999 | 2.3 |
| 2000 | 2.1 |
| 2001 | 2.3 |
| 2002 | 2.5 |
| 2003 | 1.9 |
| 2004 | 2.5 |
| 2005 | 2.0 |
| 2006 | 2.0 |
| 2007 | 2.5 |
| 2008 | 2.4 |
| 2009 | 3.3 |
| 2010 | 3.0 |
| 2011 | 3.6 |
| 2012 | 3.9 |
| Average Number of 100-yard receivers | |
|---|---|
| Year | No |
| 1993 | 4.2 |
| 1994 | 5.1 |
| 1995 | 6.2 |
| 1996 | 4.5 |
| 1997 | 5.0 |
| 1998 | 5.3 |
| 1999 | 6.0 |
| 2000 | 5.8 |
| 2001 | 5.1 |
| 2002 | 5.3 |
| 2003 | 4.7 |
| 2004 | 5.8 |
| 2005 | 5.2 |
| 2006 | 5.2 |
| 2007 | 5.1 |
| 2008 | 5.1 |
| 2009 | 5.1 |
| 2010 | 5.7 |
| 2011 | 6.2 |
| 2012 | 6.0 |
--Ian Allan