"With more and more teams using RBBC, that makes it harder to find impact fantasy players. Teams simply aren't using running backs the way they did in the past, when seemingly every team had a running back who averaged 25 carries per game."
It's easy to spit out the generally accepted notion that team now go with a more of a committee approach with their running backs. Heck, the Saints even use three!
But when you actually get the numbers out, it simply isn't true.
If you look at the number of 1,000-yard runners, it's gone up over the years (as in, look at the '70s, '80s, '90s and current-century numbers). And it's also the same for 100-yard rushing games.
Teams are now passing more, so there's been a slight downward tick in comparison to some other years. But it would be wildly inaccurate to suggest the featured tailback is on his death bed.
There were, for example, 124 guys last year who went over 100 rushing yards in a game. So, in general, teams had a 100-yard rusher in about 24 percent of their games. About once in every four games.
Now look at the '80s and '90s. Only twice in the '80s did teams average a 100-yard rusher in 24 percent of their games. And only twice in the '90s as well.
(This is part of a study I'm doing this week. I'm putting together a probability chart that will be incorporated into the Custom Scoring Area of the website. Some leagues give bonuses for 100- and 300-yard games, and I'm setting up a tool that will be worked into that area.)
| PROBABILITY OF 100-YARD RUSHERS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | No | Pct |
| 1980 | 89 | 19.9% |
| 1981 | 94 | 21.0% |
| 1982 | 56 | 22.2% |
| 1983 | 119 | 26.6% |
| 1984 | 97 | 21.7% |
| 1985 | 120 | 26.8% |
| 1986 | 91 | 20.3% |
| 1987 | 78 | 18.6% |
| 1988 | 92 | 20.5% |
| 1989 | 74 | 16.5% |
| 1990 | 74 | 16.5% |
| 1991 | 79 | 17.6% |
| 1992 | 91 | 20.3% |
| 1993 | 88 | 19.6% |
| 1994 | 82 | 18.3% |
| 1995 | 103 | 21.5% |
| 1996 | 103 | 21.5% |
| 1997 | 121 | 25.2% |
| 1998 | 143 | 29.8% |
| 1999 | 107 | 21.6% |
| 2000 | 117 | 23.6% |
| 2001 | 124 | 25.0% |
| 2002 | 136 | 26.6% |
| 2003 | 151 | 29.5% |
| 2004 | 179 | 35.0% |
| 2005 | 138 | 27.0% |
| 2006 | 159 | 31.1% |
| 2007 | 142 | 27.7% |
| 2008 | 130 | 25.4% |
| 2009 | 116 | 22.7% |
| 2010 | 124 | 24.2% |
| 2011 | 131 | 25.6% |
| 2012 | 124 | 24.2% |
I have my own theory on this whole RBBC phenomenon that rolls around for the last 5-10 years. Most teams don't use fullbacks anymore. Those were guys that in the past we're running for 300 yards per year. Now that they've generally been phased out, more teams need to work in the No. 2 running for a few carries to pick up that workload. It's not really physically possible for most running backs to carry the ball more than 20 times per game.
--Ian Allan