Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Do players perform better when they're playing at home? Is Andre Johnson more consistent than Vincent Jackson? How to put together a winning game plan for an auction. And did Fantasy Index miss the boat on Jordan Cameron?
Question 1
Do you think it makes sense to analyze whether players are playing at home or away, for fantasy purposes?
John Brown ()
They don’t call it home-field advantage for nothing. Of the 32 teams in the league, only one was a winning record all-time on the road – the Giants. And only three of those teams have a losing record at home (Arizona, New Orleans, Tampa Bay). I think the overall percentage is something like 57-59 percent. You win games by scoring more points. So there is some advantage in playing at home. When I have more time, I will spend a couple of hours studying it and dig up the exact numbers. I vaguely recall looking at this in the past and concluding that the different wasn’t huge. I think it was a couple of points difference for the team. I think passing yards was pretty similar, with a larger difference in rushing. As I recall, the bigger difference wasn’t for home-away but for win-loss. So if you can take the home teams in the 50-50 type games and then piggyback them on the games where you’ve got a team that’s simply better (New England, Denver, San Francisco), then you’ve got something. I was working on a deal with 100- and 300-yard games yesterday. I can tell you there is a correlation in that area. Over the last 20 years, there have been over twice as many 100-yard games by running back at home (2,516) versus away (1,143). Ditto for 100-yard receivers (3,305 to 1,630). Not quite double with quarterbacks (1,491 to 747).
Question 2
I've used your magazine since I started this hobby 80 fantasy seasons ago. You've helped me to 16 Super Bowl wins, double the average. I play in dynasty leagues where we keep most of our team every year, as in the NFL. My favorite part of your magazine is the Dynasty Cheat Sheet, but it is, sadly, never updated. What major changes would you make on the dynasty board at this point? Who moves up, down, on, or off?
JOHN BENNETT (CHINO, CA)
Ideally, we’d have a customizable cheat sheet for the dynasty leagues, but the math becomes too complicated. You would need to project number of seasons guys are going to play and discount future season by something like 10 percent or something. There’s always the issue of trying to win now versus collecting guys who might be really good three years from now. How easy is it to find serviceable players on the waiver wire? And we get into varying scoring systems – yards or PPR or TD-only. You can see how it gets problematic. So I do the totally unscientific list by hand for the magazine. The best way to handle revisions for that is through the mailbag. You send in your question, and I’ll try to answer it the best I can (like I’m doing now). For quarterbacks, I don’t see any big changes. Maybe move E.J. Manuel up a few spots. He seems to be for real. At running back, let’s move Montee Ball down about a dozen spots. And the same for Vick Ballard. Johnathan Franklin, I think you can drop him right out of the top 50. Please move Chris Johnson up to 11th. Daryl Richardson up about 15 spots. At wide receiver, let’s move Tavon Austin down about a dozen spots. I’d like to move Cordarrelle Patterson up about a dozen spots. He seems to have better physical skills than DeAndre Hopkins. I am ready to move two more rookie receivers onto that list: Markus Wheaton and Kenbrell Thompkins. At tight end, I’d like to move Coby Fleener up about 10 spots. Those are the big movers (in addition to the guys you know about who’ve suffered serious injuries).
Question 3
Frequently in the mailbag you provide interesting and valuable statistics. For example, Question 4 in the July 26 mailbag where you posted your projected TDs for the season for every team. Can you store these questions and answers in a separate link, maybe call it a "toolbox"? I don't want to have to re-read all the mailbags to find something I remember reading in July when I'm preparing my draft list in late August. Perhaps you can provide this link only to subscribers and require a secret word to access it.
Jose Montana (ROSEMEAD, CA)
Thanks for the kind words. When I think that there are guys out there who care about what I’m doing, that makes it a lot easier to put in hours, watching all the games and studying the various statistics. But I wouldn’t worry too much about losing anything in the Mailbag. If I ever come up with anything really special for the Mailbag, I’ll be sure to work it into the regular newsletter as well. As for the offensive touchdowns for each team, all you need to do is ask. These are my current numbers, which are another three weeks more current.
| PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| New England | 32.0 | 20.5 | 52.5 |
| New Orleans | 35.2 | 15.4 | 50.6 |
| Denver | 35.2 | 13.6 | 48.8 |
| Green Bay | 34.7 | 13.6 | 48.3 |
| NY Giants | 28.5 | 17.3 | 45.8 |
| Seattle | 27.2 | 17.3 | 44.5 |
| Atlanta | 30.5 | 12.5 | 43.0 |
| San Francisco | 22.4 | 19.7 | 42.1 |
| Washington | 24.6 | 17.1 | 41.8 |
| Cincinnati | 28.5 | 12.5 | 41.0 |
| Houston | 22.9 | 17.3 | 40.2 |
| Carolina | 20.8 | 19.2 | 40.0 |
| Baltimore | 24.0 | 15.4 | 39.4 |
| Dallas | 28.0 | 11.2 | 39.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 26.2 | 12.6 | 38.9 |
| Detroit | 28.0 | 10.6 | 38.6 |
| Indianapolis | 26.6 | 11.7 | 38.2 |
| Minnesota | 18.9 | 17.1 | 36.0 |
| Philadelphia | 19.5 | 16.5 | 36.0 |
| Chicago | 23.2 | 12.3 | 35.5 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.7 | 11.7 | 35.4 |
| Tennessee | 18.4 | 15.2 | 33.6 |
| St. Louis | 24.6 | 8.8 | 33.4 |
| Kansas City | 20.0 | 12.5 | 32.5 |
| Buffalo | 19.5 | 12.5 | 32.0 |
| San Diego | 22.1 | 9.9 | 32.0 |
| Cleveland | 18.8 | 12.5 | 31.3 |
| Miami | 18.6 | 10.9 | 29.4 |
| Arizona | 21.1 | 7.3 | 28.4 |
| NY Jets | 17.3 | 10.9 | 28.2 |
| Oakland | 18.1 | 9.6 | 27.7 |
| Jacksonville | 17.6 | 9.9 | 27.5 |
Question 4
My question is this ... For years I buy your magazine and updates, so explain to me how, if my draft was prior to Aug 15 and I followed your cheatsheet, that nowhere on your list is CLE TE Cameron. I'm paying for your insight and expertise. I saw this coming months ago and according to your rankings I would draft the likes of A Fasano before Cameron, who is a starter in a TE-friendly offense. Sleeper, maybe, but he certainly should be higher than 22. I've seen him ranked elsewhere around TE 15. Sure rankings fluxuate during preseason, but to not even have this guy ranked in the top 21 is ridiculous. I'll be checking your next update and I'll bet you have him in there. I am seriously questioning that if you put this much effort into the rest of the positions in your cheatsheet this could be my last year with you. C'mon man!
JIM ELAFROS (GILBERT, AZ)
I’m aware of Jordan Cameron. I know he caught 2 TDs against Detroit. I’m not sure where he’ll be on the next draft board. I haven’t watched the game from last night yet. He didn’t impress me in the opening exhibition. The first ball thrown his way came in hot, but it was catchable. It bounced off his hands and up high into the air. Could have been intercepted, but Greg Little pulled it in. They didn’t throw his way again. Their other tight end, Gary Barnidge (they use two tight ends) had a catch or two in the remaining time the first-unit offense was out there. Not that Barnidge (who hurt a shoulder) is going to outproduce Cameron, but that’s one of those things you notice. I will watch the Browns game today, and the findings will be in the Monday report. I’m not certain, but my expectation is Cameron will be flagged as a possible backup – not a guy you’d want to be counting on to be your No. 1 tight end in a fantasy league. Not sure if he’ll be ahead of Fasano, who’s been a good red-zone guy and caught a couple of balls early in the Kansas City game last week.
Question 5
Up until this year we have always used the snake format for our draft but have elected to go with the auction this year. Could you give some advice on auction draft strategy? What should be the key objectives? Are there any useful techniques like creating a barbell between buying marquis players at a discount to fair value and filling out the rest of your roster with sleepers at a buck a shot?
David Barenborg (MERCER ISLAND, WA)
The first step, I think, is deciding what everyone is worth. Figured out which 200 players will be selected and what each guy is worth. You have to be prepared to buy everyone – even guys you don’t like. Maybe you don’t want Darren McFadden, but if he’s sitting there at $2, you’ll certainly buy him. You’ll buy him at $3. Are what point are you not buying him? I like to handle all of that pre-auction. We’ve got the auction tool as part of the custom rankings feature. (Go to “Your Stuff”, then pull down on the “Scoring Systems” tab.) The setup takes a couple of minutes, with the key being where to set the baselines. You’ll be to guess how many guys at each position will be selected, but of those, how many will be purchased for more than the $1.00 minimum? A lot of guys struggle with that question; what is a $1.00 player? Is this player still going to be on your roster in November (or would you cut him if he had a chance to file a waiver claim on a tight end who caught 5 passes for 80 yards?) Suppose you could move up from a Brady or Kaepernick to a Brees at quarterback. Would you be willing to toss this guy in to make that trade happen? That’s the kind of guy we’re talking about. In general, I would recommend these guidelines when deciding on how many at each position are worth more than $1.00. At quarterback, slightly fewer than half of the teams will pay more than $1.00 for a backup (that’s in addition to the starters, who’ll all go for more than $1.00). At tailback, every team will pay more than $1.00 for a backup (maybe even a few more players beyond that). At wide receiver, about half the teams will spend more than $1.00 for a backup. At tight end, only a couple of teams will spend more than $1.00 for a backup. At kicker, probably just two will go for more than min. At defense, maybe 3-4 for more than the min (but it can vary with scoring system). Anyway, once you’ve got prices on all the players, then you sit back and buy the best values that come your way. You go in with a $100 payroll. The goal is to walk away from the draft with maybe a $160 team. So when you’ve decided that Peterson, Foster or whoever is “worth” $45, that doesn’t mean you buy him for that much. If you buy guys at your values, your team will be worth only $100 – it will be average. Goal is to collect deals. And keep in mind that a bunch of guys will go for $1.00. That means that you should try to be the guy who starts the bidding on the best of the $1.00 players. If you let somebody else buy his $1.00 players before you, it’s like letting somebody else pick before you in a draft. Handle the kicker and defense positions early.
Question 6
I am in a keeper league and looking for future RBs. In your latest update, you mention Cierre Wood as a 3rd running back for Houston. If Foster were to go down permanently, do you think Wood would step in for him and Tate would keep his current role, or do you think Tate would take Foster’s spot?
MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)
Sorry for introducing confusing. Ben Tate is definitely the No. 2 back there. I was just observing that Wood seems to have a firm grasp on the next spot. He’s No. 3. In my opinion, he was so much better than the other guys against Minnesota that it’s not even close. But it will be a major surprise if Woods starts any games in 2013. He was some value, I think, in a dynasty format. Tate is in a contract year. Maybe he won’t be there next year. Maybe Foster gets hurt. If you’re in one of those leagues with deep rosters, with everyone trying to collect guys who might become starters in 2014 or 2015, then Wood (I believe) should be stashed away on a roster.
Question 7
In years past you've posted a week-by-week schedule of all of the games with the likelihood or percentage chance that you see that team winning that week. Example: Week 1 OAK (10%) at INDY (90%), ARIZ (30%) at STL (70%) etc. Any plans to do so again?
Troy Hopper (LUMBERTON, NJ)
Good idea. Let me put something together early next week. By that time, I’ll have seen each team in two preseason games. I haven’t formulated my opinions yet for each of the eight divisions, and sometimes that results in me getting caught off guard. Somebody will ask me whether I think the Seahawks or 49ers will win the NFC West, and it’s not something I’ve really thought about. Thus far, I’ve been far more focused on getting the team and individual projections right for rushing yards, rushing TDs, passing yards and passing TDs. After I go through the 256 regular-season games, I’ll have a much better idea of how each division will shake out.
Question 8
14 team, 1-QB league, 18 roster spots available so carrying 3 QBs not an issue. All TDs 6pts, with small incremental bonus for longer TDs. Yardage bonuses start at 250 (1pt) and +1pt/25yds after. QBs tend to go early and often in snake draft. If you pass on a QB in R1-R4, you will be looking at a QB12 - QB16 or so to be your starter. Could you stomach having a Bradford, Freeman, Cutler, Flacco, Palmer type as your starting QB? How low would you go?
JASON MATTERN (WINTERSVILLE, OH)
That’s one way to win a league. Ignore the quarterback position, then try to catch lightning in a bottle later. It’s certainly possible. If you had a trifecta of Bradford-Freeman-Flacco, I think you could live with that. You could play matchup ball, and maybe one of them would really come on. And you have to factor in the probability you might find some superstar on the waiver wire later in the season. Colin Kaepernick, for example, wasn’t even drafted in fantasy leagues last year.
Question 9
I'm in a 12-team league that auctions the first 5 rounds and then drafts the last 10. For nominating players in the auction we go in 1-12 order for all five rounds (no snaking). The draft portion is snaked. Last year the players in the 11 & 12 slots were arguing they were at a disadvantage because they had to nominate players at the end of every round. I feel there is no advantage in terms of where you nominate a player (with the possible exception of the last handful of picks when the auction is more draft-like) because as long as you have money you can bid on any player. The real advantage goes to those who budget wisely and save something like $7 for 2 players or $2 for 1 player so they can "own" the board near the end of the draft. Do you have an opinion on this?
AJ Bindl (COLUMBUS, WI)
Once you get into the draft portion, I’d like to see you go 1 thru 12. That way the spacing is the same for everyone – there’s 11 picks between each owner’s selections. This favors the guy picking first, of course, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be fair. How about this (which is a wrinkle I know is used by some others in “Drauctions”). Whatever team finishes the auction with the most money left at the end gets to pick first in the draft portion? A lottery or other game of chance would be used to break any ties. That creates a “reward” for teams to try to say a couple extra bucks in the auction.
Question 10
Oh, no! I just won the first draft pick. How bad is the Fantasy Index cover jinx going to hurt Peterson? Enough that I should try to trade down to grab Graham?
MARTIN DONNELLY (ELMHURST, IL)
I love trading down. If you can trade down a half-dozen spots and pick up an extra third-round pick, that would be really nice.
Question 11
Several years ago, I read an article (can't remember by who) that argued that it is better to draft a team that consistently produces points, than it is to assemble a bunch of "boom-bust" players who go on a tear for 3 TDs one week but then have multiple 1 or 2 point games. I remember the author even saying that in one season, Rex Grossman was actually a better fantasy QB than some other highly regarded QBs, because over the course of a season, Sexy Rexy produced like a metronome and the other QBs he compared were streaky, causing the fantasy team to lose games. Do you subscribe to this theory and do you have any statistical tools to help identify players who are more consistent point producers and which players are "boom-bust" or streaky? The hope is to distinguish between roughly equal yearly point producers. For example, I'd rather have Andre Johnson than Vincent Jackson, because Andre Johnson is a pass catching machine, and V Jackson catches way fewer balls and more TDs -- most weeks he does NOT catch a TD, making him more streaky.
Andrew Napoli (SPRINGFIELD, VA)
I haven’t seen the article, so I don’t know if it’s something that’s carefully thought out, or if it’s some guy just shooting from the hip because he lost a game or two when one of his big players came up with a lesser game at the wrong time. It’s something I here about from time to time, but it’s not something I’ve looked into carefully. Not sure how I’d look into it. The comparison you bring up isn’t a fair one, I think. Andre Johnson had a great year last year – he caught 112 balls for 1,598 yards. Vincent Jackson caught 72 passes for 1,384 yards. So it’s not that you like Johnson more because he’s more consistent. You like Johnson more because he’s a better player. And, oddly enough, while Johnson was better than Jackson last year, he arguably was the less consistent of the two players. Their 32 games appear below, showing production in a PPR format. Note that of the bottom 10 games, Johnson has five of them (see chart below). I think what we all want at the receiver position isn’t a streaky guy or a consistent guy, but a player who’s on a hot streak. Dez Bryant in the second half of last year. Andre Johnson for a long run in the middle of last year. Danario Alexander in the second half of last season. That’s what we’re all looking for.
| Andre Johnson vs. Vincent Jackson | ||
|---|---|---|
| Andre | Week 11 | 47.3 |
| Vincent | Week 7 | 34.6 |
| Andre | Week 15 | 32.1 |
| Andre | Week 12 | 27.8 |
| Andre | Week 17 | 26.1 |
| Andre | Week 1 | 25.9 |
| Vincent | Week 14 | 25.1 |
| Vincent | Week 2 | 23.8 |
| Vincent | Week 11 | 23.4 |
| Vincent | Week 6 | 22.6 |
| Vincent | Week 4 | 22.0 |
| Andre | Week 9 | 19.8 |
| Vincent | Week 16 | 17.8 |
| Andre | Week 7 | 17.6 |
| Andre | Week 14 | 17.5 |
| Andre | Week 16 | 16.7 |
| Vincent | Week 9 | 16.4 |
| Andre | Week 6 | 15.5 |
| Andre | Week 3 | 15.2 |
| Vincent | Week 12 | 14.6 |
| Vincent | Week 15 | 14.1 |
| Vincent | Week 10 | 10.9 |
| Andre | Week 13 | 10.6 |
| Vincent | Week 1 | 8.7 |
| Andre | Week 4 | 8.6 |
| Vincent | Week 13 | 8.5 |
| Vincent | Week 17 | 8.0 |
| Andre | Week 10 | 7.5 |
| Vincent | Week 8 | 6.0 |
| Andre | Week 2 | 5.1 |
| Vincent | Week 3 | 3.9 |
| Andre | Week 5 | 2.5 |
Question 12
I have the 3rd pick in a PPR RB-only keeper league (we reset to start this year). We lose whatever round we picked a player in. In 10 years I've never kept my 1st rounder. I'm very good at drafting players late that become ridiculous values the next season (pat on the back). I have no intention on keeping my 1st rounder next year so age and workload don't matter when looking at the future with my 1st pick. I am 90% sure Foster will be there at 3 after AP & Charles. I know how the 2 in front of me will draft. I’m trying to trade down but if I can’t is there any way I can pass on Foster other than to take a younger rb in case I keep him? I can't make myself take him. I keep thinking this is the year he comes up lame. I'm leaning towards Rice. Would u talk me into taking Foster.
John Hebert ()
Foster hasn’t practiced yet, and there could be some issues with the offensive line. I think Rice is the healthier, smarter, safer choice right now.
Question 13
Of the current free agent running backs available, who do you foresee being signed and making an immediate contribution to whichever team he gets signed to?
KEVIN DALLAS (COVINGTON, KY)
There’s Beanie Wells, Willis McGahee, Cedric Benson and Michael Turner. Of those four, I think Wells has the most potential. We may have seen the last of the other guys.
Question 14
After using your product last year for the first time, I had my best draft ever, and won my first championship! Thanks! I am in a 10-team PPR league, 2 QBs at 6 pts per TD, all other TDs 6 pts a well. In a snake draft, I have picks 1, 20 ,21, etc. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, & Aaron Rodgers are on the top of my list for #1 overall. I think Peyton has the most weapons. Brees will throw it the most but has a weak O-line. Rodgers is the best QB but doesn't have the talent at receiver he has had in the past. Either way, they are all going to put up similar numbers. Do you think any one of them is a clear-cut favorite? At picks 20 & 21, do I grab a combo of WR/RB, or do I snatch my 2nd QB with 1 WR or RB?
jeff mcgrath (CHARLOTTE, NC)
Brees puts up more yards than those other guys, so I think he’s No. 1. Both New Orleans and Green Bay have new left tackles, but I think the Saints feel better about their guy. Wide receiver, though, is a bigger issue in New Orleans (Colston-Moore-Stills?) than in either Green Bay (Cobb-Jones-Nelson) or Denver (Thomas-Decker-Welker). If there’s still a good quarterback on the board at 20-21, you’ll want to add him. The other pick should be a guy who’s going to catch a lot of passes.
Question 15
Would you trade Foster for Rice in a standard yardage keeper league? I love Foster, but he scares me this year while I think Rice should be very, very busy.
JOHN RUPPE (FORT MYERS, FL)
That seems to be the safer, more logical route. Foster hasn’t practiced. He’s got to show he’s healthy, and there’s some questions with that offensive line – doesn’t seem to be as good as it’s been in the past.
Question 16
Where would you rank Percy Harvin and Justin Blackmon in a 12 team 0.5 PPR keeper league given that they will not provide a full season worth of production 2013? If I were to draft either player this season, it would cost me a draft pick at two rounds higher to keep in 2014. Our league starts 2RB, 3 WR and a FLEX. Are there any other players in a similar scenario that I should consider late in drafts for keeper reasons?
William D'allesandro (HUNTINGTON, NY)
If you set aside the injuries and suspension, both of those guys would have been just inside my top 20 at wide receiver for 2013. That’s the kind of potential you’re looking at.
Question 17
I'm being a little greedy here but I have a two part question. Who has the better sleeper value this year Daryl Richardson, Lamar Miller, DeAndre Hopkins or Aaron Dobson? Also, why is Reggie Bush so low ranked on many cheat sheets?
Anthony Giomundo (TONAWANDA, NY)
Of the four you mention, I’ve got Richardson ranked the highest. I think he’ll be the starting back in St. Louis. As for Bush, I have a couple of concerns. Can he stay healthy? And how much is he going to suffer playing behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines? The Lions haven’t used the run much; they set an NFL record for pass attempts last year. I think they’ll be similar this year. (I also think they’ll plug in Mikel Leshoure in goal-line situations.) If you’re drafting Bush, ideally it’s in a PPR league. If he can stay healthy, he might be a Darren Sproles kind of guy.
Question 18
Do you think either Darren Sproles or Reggie Bush will be a serviceable-to-good No. 2 RB in a 10-team, non-PPR league? Counting on Sproles or Bush as my No. 2 back would allow me to sneak in a quality WR with my second-round pick before drafting Sproles/Bush in the third/fourth rounds.
Paul Owers (WEST PALM BEACH, FL)
I put together a revised board yesterday. On it, I had Sproles 20th and Bush 25th.
Question 19
So glad you got rid of the glamour shot you had posted last year. I am in a PPR keeper league for the first time that allows a SuperFlex that can be any other player including QB- we just had our draft and I picked 6th- I was excited when Rodgers fell to me, then with my 2nd rd pick I took Brees over the likes of R Cobb, J Graham, Forte and A Morris (whom- surprisingly I got in the 3rd). A lot of owners scoffed at my 2 QB selection-do you think this was good or bad move in this Keeper format? Just wanted your thoughts. PS – I am lacking at WR and need a deeeeeep sleeper I can pick up before the season starts. I just picked up Thompkins due to your analysis in the last update.
MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)
Looks like you’re off to a good start. In that kind of a league, I would think most of the teams would be looking to select quarterbacks with their first two picks. I would think many of them, in fact, would want a third quarterback in the middle rounds to cover bye weeks and injuries. I can hardly believe you got Brees and Rodgers in that format. You’ll find a wide receiver somewhere and somehow. Somebody will get hurt, benched or suspended. Kenbrell Thompkins could be your guy; we’ll know more about him after we see him play in their second exhibition.
Question 20
I get to keep two players in a non-ppr league. Alfred Morris is a no brainer, since I only have to give up my 12th round pick to keep him. I've narrowed the other down to these three: S Ridley (lose my 6th round pick) R Wilson (11th) R Cobb (14th) Cobb and Wilson are great values, but it's hard to throw back a starting RB, plus the depth at QB makes me tend to eliminate Wilson, so I guess I'm down to Ridley and Cobb. Who would you keep?
TOM HICKS (DURHAM, NC)
Cobb would be my first choice. Relative to where he would be selected, he looks like a great value.
Question 21
Long time reader Ian, great product. I'm in an 8 team PPR keeper league. I've got to choose between 3 of the 4: Julio Jones in the 6th round, Gronk in the 10th, Antonio Brown in the 12th, or Russell Wilson in the 16th. Julio is one of the three, but which of the other two do you recommend?
DOUGLAS BROWN (Croswell, MI)
Let’s go with the two healthy guys. Those are nice values.
Question 22
In a league where you can start a QB in the flex spot, I have the 10th pick of a 10-team league. I can keep Rodgers for the first round pick or Doug Martin for the fourth round pick. It's a PPR league.
Marco Tavares (BILLERICA, MA)
Martin. Before adding in the double quarterback dynamic, he’s the No. 1 player on my board. You would get to keep him for the cost of just a fourth-round pick.
Question 23
Two questions, both about the advantage of your info. In the past few years you've come up with a few jewels (Foster a few years ago and Alf last year). Is there anyone you're looking at now that might be that type of player – or even close? One of the biggest advantages you offer is where you differ from consensus/other experts-especially when you are right, which seems to be most of the time. Could you give me a feel for those you rank higher (Rice, T Smith, Tate, Givens) and lower (Cam, Bush, L.Miller) as to what makes you buck the group thinking.
MARK CLURE (MOUNT SHASTA, CA)
We’re heading into the second week of the preseason. This is the first big week, really – the first time teams will leave their first team out there for more than just a series or two. So the sleeper-breakout guys should start emerging. If you recall last year, Alfred Morris in his first game (at Buffalo, I think), played pretty well, and we walked away with the impression, “this sixth-round pick, Alfred Morris, he looks pretty good – he could be their starter”. Then he moved into the favorite’s role in his second game, I think, to where we felt he’d probably be the starter. It became obvious in the third exhibition, when he got all the work with the first unit and ran up some big yards. We’re scouting all of the games, and if there’s another Morris out there, we’ll find him. As far as other fantasy services, I don’t follow those too closely. I don’t have time. I have no idea what the consensus is, or what the ADP for the various players is. I’m just concentrating on evaluating the players and getting the projections right. I’m not trying to buck any trends or zig where others zag. We’ll see down the road where the other services have the guys ranked, and which ones I’m a lot higher or lower on.
Question 24
We have a spot on our rosters for Coaches. Let's assume I'm going to wait on this position, and just use the waiver wire throughout the season to fill this spot. What mid-level teams do you envision having an easy start to the season, i.e. a team who's coach I could snag if I was one of the last teams to select a coach, and could grab 3 or 4 early-season wins before ditching him and playing rotating coaches the rest of the way?
Matt Tinker (ORLEANS, VT)
Early next week, I take my first crack at projecting wins and losses for each team. At that point, we'll have an idea of how to rank the coaches 1 thru 32 for wins.
Question 25
We all hold 2 players on a max 3yr contract so good players are available. The keepers came in and they are; 9 QB (2 teams held 2, WTF?), 8 RB, 5 WR, and 2 TE. I'm holding A. Morris and A. Johnson and have the 1st pick in every round (bad luck last year, high scoring team that started 0-6, but good enough to win Toilet Bowl). The top players available are...drum roll... A. Foster and Cal. Johnson. Then, Charles, McCoy, Richardson, MJD, Forte, Murray, Wilson, S. Jackson and on. D. Bryant, Ju. Jones, Fitz, B. Marshall, White, D. Thomas, Cruz, Amendola and on. Brady, Stafford, Dalton Romo, E. Manning, Bradford, no hurry here, I should get one later. Graham and Gronk are gone so TE is no pressing need. I've looked at it and I believe that the first round will be 1 QB, 5 RB, and 6 WR (based on previous tendencies). So If I go Johnson(one of my favorite players), I'm looking at Murray, Wilson, or S. Jackson(who I really like at Atl.) in the 2nd round. If I go Foster, I'm looking at White, Cruz, Amendola (intrigue here), or lock up S. Jackson if available and be covered from Shanahanigans with A. Morris (you never know). I don't like the idea of Foster, because of the necessary early handcuff of Tate, and of course his current health, but I get him for 3 years. With these guys I would need to use my 4th rounder(6th player on roster) to be assured of getting Tate. On the flip side, we play 4 team divisions and the guy drafting behind me held 2 QB, so if I leave him Calvin(I'm sure he'll take him), he will be absolutely hosed at RB. Which should essentially make it a 3 team race in my division. Sorry for writing a book, but I really am stuck on this. I can't handle the stress of picking so early, I'm much more comfortable picking 9,10,11,12. So with your help I'll return to one of those draft spots next year and years after. The question is; Arian Foster or Calvin Johnson?
ADAM LOCKE (LYNNWOOD, WA)
It’s a KEEPER league, so you’ve got to look not only at 2013, but also 2014-15. Do you think Foster will still be a franchise back in those future seasons? Will Steven Jackson even be in the league in 2014? I think you need to take a closer look at the younger guys. Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Trent Richardson. Maybe you go Richardson over Foster. I think if you polled 100 fantasy leaguers, the majority would take Jamaal Charles over Foster right now – probably Richardson too in a keeper league. Calvin Johnson is 27; it would be nice to lock him up for three years.