Fantasy Index

Fantasy Football Index publisher Ian Allan answers your questions about fantasy football. Click here to submit a question.

Mailbag

Mailbag for August 20, 2013

Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this ridiculously long edition. Ranking the backup tailbacks -- and the kick returners. Do East Coast teams benefit from flying west? The three rookies that have been the most impressive in the preseason. And much, much (much) more.

Question 1

Hey Ian, Big fan, love the product. As a Pats fan, I have to let you know that your info on Zach Sudfeld is incorrect. The Pats website lists Sudfeld at 6'7", 260. He's a giant with great hands, and he appears to be the #1 TE with Gronk on the shelf. Considering who's throwing him the ball, and the amount of pts the Pats score, I think he's a great TE2 to draft late, especially if Gronk starts the season on PUP. He's getting a cult following in New England right now as well...I think the rest of the team is calling him "Sunshine" like the California QB from "Remember the Titans". Good story, and Brady likes him.

HARRY RADENBERG (SUDBURY, MA)

In the NFL Record & Fact Book, Sudfeld is listed at 225 pounds. Apparently he’s beefed up since they signed him. I’ll agree that on the field, he looks a lot heavier than 225. But it’s not a toned, ripped 260. To me, he looks like a college sophomore. Compare him, for example, to the young tight end in Green Bay – Brandon Bostick. If those two guys were standing next to each other and you were told one of them was an NFL tight end, you would definitely pick Bostick. As for whether Sudfeld is worth anything more than a flyer pick, let me look into it closer. In this case, you have the advantage of watching the New England games more carefully, since they’re your team. With me, I’ve got to watch all 16 games every week. I will go back and try to watch the New England possessions in the first quarters of the Philadelphia and Tampa Bay games. It was my impression that Sudfeld was hardly out there early in those games. I saw Ballard as their blocking-type tight end, with Sudfeld as more of a Hernandez-type guy. I will take another look at Sudfeld and possibly revise his projection prior to the Thursday product. (But you’re, of course, welcome to simply ignore that recommendation if you want.)

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Question 2

I'm reading the 8/12 update, and in the NYJ capsule you said "if you rank the backup tailbacks 1-32...." Great idea! How about ranking the backup tailbacks 1-32?

Scott Anderson (LAKEWOOD, CO)

Fair enough. Rankings are below. I’m leaving off the third-down type backs who are out there in a change-of-pace role – no Sproles, Vereen or Stephens-Howling. Just looking at true running backs. And I’m not ranking them in expected fantasy worth for 2013. I’m ranking them based on talent. This would be the order I would put them in if I were running an actual NFL team. Three teams list double guys (Seattle, Detroit, San Francisco). Those ranking show where either guy would rank (so Seattle, with two top-10 backup tailbacks, has arguably the best backup running back situation in the league).

BACKUP TAILBACKS
1BALBernard Pierce
2CINGiovani Bernard
3TENShonn Greene
4NYGAndre Brown
5CARJonathan Stewart
6INDBradshaw or Ballard
7SEAR.Turbin/C.Michael
8NOPierre Thomas
9HOUBen Tate
10SFL.James/K.Hunter
11MIADaniel Thomas
12WASRoy Helu
13CHIMichael Bush
14DENMontee Ball
15KCKnile Davis
16MINToby Gerhart
17PHIC.Polk/B.Brown
18NYJBilal Powell
19ATLJacquizz Rodgers
20DETJ.Bell/M.Leshoure
21BUFFred Jackson
22NELeGarrette Blount
23GBDuJuan Harris
24DALLance Dunbar
25OAKRashad Jennings
26PITIsaac Redman
27TBBrian Leonard
28JACJustin Forsett
29SDRonnie Brown
30CLEBrandon Jackson
31STLIsaiah Pead
32ARIStepfan Taylor

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Question 3

Quick suggestion for your cheat sheets: I've always struggled valuing backup running backs and certain RBBC guys using your cheat sheet, in part because you seem to either give them "starter" value for 2 games or "backup" value for many more. Take someone like Bernard Pierce. You have him slotted for 2.4 games at 15.3 points. Clearly though, he has some value in a weekly capacity even as a backup to Rice (maybe just in desperate times, granted). Sure, I can see that Rueben Randall is a projected powerhouse if Cruz or Nicks go down, but does he have any value as a #3 WR? Hillman and Ball provide another example. You have one projected as starting 11 and the other 5 games; what is each their values if the other guy wins the job? I think the best way to go about these guys would be to have 2 values (much like you do for weekly projections when there is a questionable guy). You have one value for when they are the starter, and one for when they are playing a change of pace role (if they have any). I understand it's currently possible to take their season long projections, subtract their per-game value as a starter and get an idea of their worth as a backup, but at best that is a hassle, and at worst you've manipulated those numbers to get the guys where you want them on the draft board, making that method a sketchy proposition. Can't thank you enough for having an excellent product, and always being very receptive to suggestions.

john stolzmann (LAS VEGAS, NV)

I like the suggestion. Give me some time to mull it over. There are some issues I’ll have to mull over. With the weekly, it’s always a clean, binary situation – “here’s where the guy is now; here’s where he’ll be if he’s active on Sunday.” With this August product, it’s more complex. With the Denver running backs, for example, I could tag Ronnie Hillman (“if opening day starter”), but we’d still kind of be stuck where we’re at. How long will he remain the starter? Will he last four games? Eight? Or will they share time? It’s not really useful to tell a reader, “Here’s where Hillman will rank if he’s the starter and he remains the starter all year”, because every player would look more favorable when analyzed in that light. There are two ways I rank these kind of situations, and you may noticed that I changed three teams this week – Broncos, Dolphins and Jets. With all of those teams (and we’re talking running backs), you can either look at how many games the guy is going to start, or you can just call the deal a committee and make a stab at the guy’s 16-game production (assuming he’ll share time). When I project a guy to start games (like I did with Ball and Hillman last week), it’s a two-tiered forecast. And it’s the same with backup tailbacks. For those guys, they have numbers showing how they’ll do as starters (which are listed), but there are also per-game projections for how they’ll do in their other games. With Hillman, for example, he would show at 80 yards per game (or whatever it is) in his five starts, and then there’s something like 15 yards per game when he’s the No. 2 tailback. Those backup numbers are behind the curtain. You can’t see them, but they’re here on my computer on the main database I’m working from. When I want to fudge numbers to make a player move up a spot or two, the number I typical tweak is the games. I’ll change the 13.2 games to 13.4 or whatever. If, during your studies, you want to discuss a player’s backup production in more detail, the best current method right now is to either send in a request to the mailbag, or deal with me directly. I could send you the main Excel file I’m working from (which is far larger and more complex than the one that’s posted twice per week).

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Question 4

First, I'd like to say that in 15 years as a subscriber, this week’s update was the best ever – packed with useful info and ranking adjustments. Second, I'll apologize for the length of my question. You earlier asked me to resend it closer to the season-and we draft Monday the 26th. My league awards 1 point per 25 return yards. What I've done is bump your projected numbers by 8 pts for PR, 20 pts for KR, and 28 for both. But it gets a little risky relying on return yards – these guys don't always end up being the returner. But here goes; looks like McCluster, Sproles, Cobb, L.James, Tavon Austin, Jacoby Jones, Cordarrelle Patterson handle both. T.Y. Hilton, Antonio Brown and Rueben Randle handle punts, and Brandon Tate, Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Dunbar, David Wilson, Jacquizz will handle KR. Does my scoring adjustment seem to make sense? And would you add or subtract any names from my list?

MARK CLURE (MOUNT SHASTA, CA)

Thanks for the kind words. We enjoy putting together the August products. It’s fun to see the guys in action that we’ve been studying, and making the necessary adjustments to our various theories. And I do have a few thoughts to share on kick returners. For starters, kickoff returns are more valuable – they tend to get those 15-20 yards before they encounter anybody. NFL teams will average about 1,025 yards on kickoffs, but they’ll average only 350 on punt returns. It looks like you’re on the right track in your preparations, but I’ll offer some adjustments. Buffalo: Marquise Goodwin might be the best kickoff guy in the league, and he’ll be their fourth receiver. Jacoby Jones was the most productive kick returner in the league last year, but it looks like he’ll be a starting wide receiver this year, so I think they’ll pull him from special teams. I think you have the Steelers correct (Brown-punts, Sanders-kickoffs) but they also have Stephens-Howling there, which is a concern. Austin, Hilton and McCluster, I am certain, will return punts only. For the Giants, I don’t think Randle or Wilson will return any kicks. Randall Cobb is such a huge part of Green Bay’s offense, I expect they’ll remove him from special teams. For the Vikes, I think you’ll see Patterson only on kickoffs, not both. For Atlanta, they’ve got Rodgers returning kickoffs again; for punts, they’ll use Douglas (who’s their No. 3 receiver). LaMichael James and Darren Sproles, I think, are the two guys you can count on to return both kickoffs and punts – probably Sproles again and definitely James. And add in a couple of Seahawks. I think Golden Tate will be their punts guy, and Jermaine Kearse (maybe their third or fourth receiver) will do kickoffs. For Dallas, they’ll use Dunbar on some kickoffs, but they’ll probably also get Dwayne Harris back there.

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Question 5

Professor Ian -- have you ever analyzed the data on player performance for West Coast teams playing at 1 pm Eastern time? Or, for East Coast teams playing on SNF or MNF in games in the Pacific time zone?

peter chen (STANFORD, CA)

This is a fascinating issue. One I wish had more time to study. (Why didn’t you send this in back in June, when I could have taken two days to really get into it?) I spent about an hour on it today, but I’ve got too much other stuff to do right now. It is my belief that there are some interesting trends to uncover here. I choose to look at the pure East Coast teams and look at how they did against the five true West Coast teams – Seattle, Arizona and the three California teams. I looked at how they fared out at those venues, then compared it to how they did in their other road games. The results (I thought) were surprising. In the last 10 years, those East Coast teams actually have a winning record out West – 68-60. They’ve won 53 percent of the time. In their other road games, they’ve won less than 45 percent of the time – 371-460. It’s an issue I’d like to look into further (and I will) but the initial read is that it’s not a big disadvantage to go west. I haven’t look at the teams going the other way yet. It’s harder. How far east does a team need to go before the affect supposedly kicks in? If the 49ers play in Kansas City or Houston, is that not a qualifying trip? How much different is it to fly to Pittsburgh or Philadelphia. But it looks like there’s something there on the West Coast deal. Of the 12 teams I looked at, all but three of them played better out in the West than they did in their other road games. And this isn’t just a case of those West Coast teams having a bad decade. Yes, the Raiders have had a down run, and the 49ers and Cardinals have had plenty of poor years. But those five teams in the last 10 years have won almost 57 percent of their games at home (227-172-1). Hmm.

HEADING WEST, 2003-2012
TeamWLPct
Patriots72.778
Eagles54.556
Giants75.583
Falcons74.636
Panthers84.667
Ravens65.545
Dolphins57.417
Jets66.500
Bucs48.333
Jaguars25.286
Washington84.667
Bills36.333

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Question 6

Long-time Super Fanatic. Love your analysis. I've got the 2nd pick in my dynasty rookie draft and my team is weak at RB. Who would you say are your top 5 dynasty format players regardless of position. I don't want to pass on the next stud WR just because I need RB help. I'm looking more long term.

Chris Krumenauer (Oshkosh, WI)

Eddie Lacy answered that question for you on Saturday night. He looked very good against the Rams, consistently breaking tackles and carrying guys for extra yards. I think he was the most impressive running back I’ve seen so far in the preseason – rookies or otherwise. He’s the No. 1 pick, and Giovani Bernard is No. 2. Bernard seems to be a Ray Rice kind of guys – a run/catch guy who can excel in spread formations. Not quite as big or tough as Rice (yet) but a much further along as a receiver than Rice was as a rookie. Because of his style of play, Bernard might have a longer career than Lacy and might finish with more total yards in some years (he’ll do more as a pass catcher). But Bernard is splitting time this year, while Lacy is a starter. Those are your big two; you draft whichever one of those guys is left when it’s your turn to pick. Let me see the rookie receivers for one more week, then we’ll present a revised order of the top 10 or so. That will be in the Aug. 26 update. Tavon Austin doesn’t look very impressive, but I haven’t seen quite enough from anybody else to drop him out of that spot. After the two runners, the only rookie I’ve seen that’s really wowed me has been E.J. Manuel. His numbers, remarkably, have been better than the preseason stats we’ve seen the last two years out of the other rookies quarterbacks who’ve played well – Newton, Dalton, Luck, Wilson, Griffin.

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Question 7

My question centers around E.J. Manuel from Buffalo. You seem to be pretty high on him based on the Fantasy Index Cheat Sheet. My two quarterback currently are Eli Manning and Andy Dalton. I can trade for Sam Bradford but not sure that he would be an improvement. To me, Manuel looks like a clone of Kaepernick. Your comments would be greatly appreciated.

JOHN SHELBROCK (FRANKENMUTH, MI)

We don’t have much of a sample set to work from – just two preseason games – but Manuel seems to have it. He’s completing 79 percent of his passes, and he’s got a passer rating of 112. Now most of those are just short completions, but Kevin Kolb is running the same system and can’t seem to do the same things. I like the coaching staff there, which is using a lot of no-huddle stuff. The Bills have run more plays so far than any other team. I don’t see him as a Kaepernick. With Kaepernick, you’re looking at a really fast quarterback who can get outside and run 40 yards for a touchdown. Manuel has above-average mobility, but not those kind of wheels. And Kaepernick last year was primarily a deep-ball thrower – his completions have tended to be of the long, penetrating type. Manuel has been throwing everything short (at least so far). But I like him. Probably not for 2013, but maybe he can start for you in 2014. Dalton, I think, is the quarterback who’ll start most of your games this year. With it being a dynasty league, I would be mulling whether to take Manuel over Manning. I think I would. Manning should be better this year, but my gut tells me to roll the dice and hope Manuel will be better in the upcoming years.

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Question 8

Love the Magazine. My question is this. PPR league. If you have the first pick 12 team snake draft 1-12,12-1 would you consider taking Rice , Martin , Charles over AP or Foster . I also thought if I had the #1 pick trade down as well as pick up 4th or a 5th round pick. Thanks for your reply Fantasy Index is the best .

BRUCE SADLER (LAKELAND, FL)

Agreed. Peterson is a great back – fun guy to watch – but he doesn’t catch many passes. I would take Rice, Martin and Charles before Peterson in that format.

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Question 9

Why are the QB's ranked considerably lower than usual in the overall rankings?

JOHN DALLAS (TAMPA, FL)

I didn't notice they were. When it's Fri-Sat-Sun, I'm in rapid-fire mode. I'm watching the games one by one and adjusting the team projections as I go. But I'm not looking at the rankings. I'm just projecting numbers and letting the computer take it from there. It's during the week, on Wednesday, when I got through the list and kind of audit the rankings. 'Hey wait a minute, I don't want Player A ahead of Player B'. And it's during the week that I go back in and reset the baselines, which affect the overall top 30 lists.

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Question 10

I have the 12th pick in a league where the scoring is: 6 pt. for all TDs including QBs. A QB gets 3pts for 300 yards. RBs and WRs get 3 pts for 100-plus yards. I don't like the 12th pick here. I want to trade up. Specifically, what would you suggest?

STEVE CATES (CHEYENNE, WY)

You’re in luck. The tech guys are putting the final touches right now on revisions to the custom scoring area – as in I think it will go live late today. You’ll be able to plug in your exact scoring system (with the 100- and 300-yard games) and see exactly what the numbers yield. My guess is you’ll be looking at a quarterback and a running back with your two bookends picks, but we’ll see.

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Question 11

Where would you prefer to draft in 12 and 14 team leagues with the third round reversal rule? Any strategy behind your answer? I am playing in the NFFC this year and the draft order is determined in a Kentucky Derby style.

JEFFREY KOZLOWSKI (MASPETH, NY)

For those not familiar with the third-round reversal rule, it’s a neat twist. The draft order is just like a snake, but the third round is removed. So if you’re in the 12 spot and you select first in the second round, you select first again in third round (and all remaining odd-numbered rounds). You select last in the remaining even rounds (where you’d normally select first). I did some research for this in the magazine (see charts on page 10). It was my finding that the No. 1 pick was the best in both formats, but that the third-round reversal did a nice job of tightening things up. According to my math (which used a standard scoring system), the next-best choices in the 3RR format belonged to the three teams picking last in the first round.

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Question 12

Aren't there enough 2-QB leagues to run a mock draft for us in the mag or on your website? The biggest problem we face is trying to navigate the first 3 rounds, knowing that most sites assume a 1 QB strategy, which dictates waiting.

ALAN FREDERICK (SIMI VALLEY, CA)

Best way to get a good overall list is to use the custom scoring feature. Go to “Your Stuff” and pull down to “Scoring Systems”. Enter in your scoring system. Check the box for “Auction Prices” (even if you don’t use an auction). There’s a question and answer session where it asks how many quarterbacks will be selected, and how many will go for more than minimum bid. Say that 32 quarterbacks will be selected, and that 25 of them will go for more than the min. In a usual league, it’s more like 15 for more than the min. I don’t know you’re exact scoring system, but when I plug that change in for a typical type of system, I’m seeing quarterbacks move up to draft spots 1, 5, 7, 8, 13, 17, 18, 19, 22, 27, 33, 36 and 38. So in a rough sense, maybe 13 quarterbacks in those first four rounds.

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Question 13

I am in a drauction league. $100 for your first 5 players, then snake draft after that. 10 league, standard scoring, plus PPR. Start 3 WRs plus a flex, which can be a QB (which most teams end up doing). What would you recommend I put into my scoring profile for the auction value cheat sheet?

Rick Anderson (SUN PRAIRIE, WI)

With quarterbacks in the flex, you’ve got to have two of those, and I expect the other owners will feel the same. How about 20 quarterbacks in those first 50, with 16 going for more than in $1.00 min? For the other 30, you can pretty much disregard positions (because of the 3WR rule). Check off the box that combines tight ends and wide receivers into one position (even if you don’t) and say that 17 will be purchased, with 11 going for more than $1.00. At running back, it’s 13 being bought, and 8 for more than min.

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Question 14

PPR league. 6 points for rushing, receiving and passing touchdowns. I know everyone is preaching to wait on quarterbacks but with this scoring system, where do you think Brees and Rodgers should go? I know I could wait on Luck, Kaepernick etc. ... but ...?

Johnny Bazzano (SANTA ROSA, CA)

PPR? Give me pass catchers. I want guys who are going to catch 80, 90, 100 balls and more. Randall Cobb, Danny Amendola, etc. Those are the guys you should be selecting in the range where you’re considering Brees and Rodgers. You’ll be OK at quarterback.

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Question 15

In a league where you draft a TEAM QB (4 pts per TD pass) rather than the specific player, how far up would this move NO, GB, DEN and NE on your draft board in a 12-team league?

GARY CALLAWAY (LONGWOOD, FL)

At 1 point for every 20 passing yards and 4 for touchdowns, I would have the Saints a point per game better than everyone else. Then there would be a clump between 22.0 and 22.3 (in order): Broncos, Patriots, Lions, Falcons, Packers.

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Question 16

Hi Ian, great job again with the magazine. I am in a 10 team auction league, non-ppr, standard scoring. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 WR/RB/TE, 1 D, 1 K, plus 7 bench players. We each have $200. I have a 2 part question: 1) For the custom cheat sheet, how may players do you think should go for more than the league minimum for each position? Right now I have 14 QB, 39 RB, 39 WR, 9 TE, 3 K, 4 D. 2) Just to be clear, you do not recommend paying the full price amount on the custom cheat sheet, right? So then how do you calculate the maximum you would pay for each player? Much appreciated.

Bruce Goldstein (JAMAICA PLAIN, MA)

Apparently no tight ends? They’re just in the flex spot? If there’s also a starting tight end, I’ll guess about 13 will go for more than min. The benchmarks look pretty good for the key positions. Maybe add another quarterback and go down to two kickers. The prices you’ll get are retail prices – fair market value. Don’t pay those kind of prices. Watch how the auction is going and how guys are spending. Most of your players should should be able to buy at 60-80 percent of their sticker price.

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Question 17

Is Mike Glennon worth anything in a dynasty league? Is there any chance he overtakes Freeman by the end of the season? Same question with Foles?

MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)

It’s possible. If the Bucs are struggling and sucking wind in December, it would make a lot of sense to chuck Glennon in there for a few starts and start gauging whether he might be their guy in 2014. He had a couple of 30-touchdown seasons at North Carolina State. And with Foles, you’ve got the appealing dimension of the Chip Kelly offense. But it would depend on the structure of the league (are we really getting down to the point where the likes of Glennon and Foles will be on rosters?). My gut tells me neither guy will ever be a viable fantasy commodity. To be a fantasy quarterback of any worth, in my opinion, you’ve got get to the point where you’re reliably putting up top-15 numbers. I don’t see either of those guys ever moving up to that level.

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Question 18

Keeper question in a PPR league, I can keep Cobb at the cost of a 13th rounder or Amendola at the cost of an 8th rounder. I have been planning on keeping Cobb all summer, but Amendola is making a late charge. There are 5 rounds of difference, but they are later picks. I will try to trade whichever I don't keep- does it come down to whoever has the better trade value or is one a clear-cut winner before a trade is taken into consideration?

Chris Thompson (LOS ANGELES, CA)

That’s a tough situation. I think you have it mapped out correctly. For now, I’d go with Cobb. There’s a chance he’ll be better than Amendola, and five rounds of positioning is significant. You’ll also have to factor what another team is willing to give up.

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Question 19

Good job on the magazine, as always Ian. To my question - I play in an 11-team keeper PPR league. We start 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs and 2 FLEX (non QBs). My four keepers are Julio Jones, Dwayne Bowe, Jimmy Graham and DeMarco Murray, but I am having a tough time deciding on my fifth. My options are Chris Givens (11th rd), Carson Palmer (6th rd) or DeAngelo Williams (11th rd). Normally I'd keep Palmer given that it's a 2-QB league, and because I am probably going to miss out on stud guys like Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers early in the 1st round. However, since we added a second flex spot this year, I like the idea of keeping Givens and just beefing up on WRs. Plus, from a keeper perspective (we keep them for 3 seasons), Givens is obviously a young player with upside as opposed to the older and unexciting Palmer.

Don Goss (WAKEFIELD, MA)

That doesn’t look like a tough decision to me. Givens looks like he’s going to be the No. 1 receiver in St. Louis. Palmer is just an old guy trying to muscle out maybe one more decent season. Maybe.

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Question 20

A question about balancing talent and value in a keeper, auction league. I have Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck. Keeping Ryan would cost me about $30 (out of a $200 budget), and keeping Luck would cost me about $13. Luck is better value, but Ryan seems likely to have a better year. Plus, even though Luck is younger, Ryan is still pretty young and has two of the best receivers in football to throw to. Do I release a top 6, top 7 QB back into the league & take the 10th best QB, when I can probably build a pretty good team around either one since I can keep other guys who are better value (like Doug Martin, who I can keep for about $40)? Most guys keep the top talent at other positions, so it isn't as if I can count on making up for QB production by grabbing other top 10 guys at RB or WR.

L.B. Graham (WILDWOOD, MO)

On my board, Ryan is a little more than a half point per game better than Luck. Luck, recall, has some running ability, while Ryan does not. So question is, can you improve your team by more than a half point per game by spending that money in other areas? I’m going to guess that you can.

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Question 21

Need some keeper help. Keep as many as you want, but they cost you the top off the draft (ie-keep 1 costs a 1st, keep 5 costs 1st-5th). we start 2 QBs, 2 WRs, 2 RBs, 1 TE, all TDs worth 6 and ppr. Cam Newton Andy Dalton Matt Schaub Dez Bryant Pierre Garcon Alfred Morris Matt Forte Demarco Murray Ahmad Bradshaw I’m tempted to keep all 3 QBs, Bryant, Morris, & Forte; but man does that seem like a lot and I wouldnt draft till the 7th?

Matt Gordon (PALM BAY, FL)

Use the custom scoring to put together an overall list. You keep guys until you’ll be better off by drafting. I don’t have all the info, but I would guess the following guys will be keepers: Newton, Dalton, Dez, Pierre, Morris, Forte, Murray. Maybe Bradshaw.

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