Trouble with most Strength of Schedule charts is they're based on what teams did last year. But teams change. So what do those figures look like when you instead use how teams are supposed to do this year? Ian Allan explores.
For this chart, I used the over-under win totals at one of the Vegas football line websites. Mostly, anyway. After plugging in the numbers, I noticed that they didn't add up properly (too many wins), and some of them just looked hopelessly out of whack, so I did a little tweaking.
Most notably, the Raiders were projected to win 6 games, and the Jets were at 6.5. That just isn't going to happen. Those teams play each other, so there's one win there, but they do not have another 11 wins in them. That's just ridiculous.
For a half dozen other teams, I picked off a win or a half win to make the numbers add up properly.
Starting numbers are as follows ...
| Over-Under Win Totals For Each Team | |
|---|---|
| Denver | 11 |
| New England | 11 |
| San Francisco | 11 |
| Seattle | 10.5 |
| Houston | 10.5 |
| Green Bay | 10.5 |
| Atlanta | 10 |
| New Orleans | 9 |
| NY Giants | 9 |
| Pittsburgh | 9 |
| Cincinnati | 8.5 |
| Chicago | 8.5 |
| Baltimore | 8.5 |
| Dallas | 8.5 |
| Indianapolis | 8.5 |
| Washington | 8.5 |
| Detroit | 8 |
| St. Louis | 7.5 |
| Miami | 7.5 |
| Minnesota | 7.5 |
| Kansas City | 7.5 |
| Philadelphia | 7.5 |
| Tampa Bay | 7 |
| Carolina | 7 |
| San Diego | 6.5 |
| Buffalo | 6.5 |
| Tennessee | 6.5 |
| Cleveland | 5.5 |
| Arizona | 5.5 |
| Jacksonville | 5 |
| NY Jets | 4.5 |
| Oakland | 4 |
Now, moving onto the meat -- the point of what we were doing -- now let's backload those numbers into the 2013 schedule. That shows which teams should have the easiest schedules.
And the winners are? Kansas City, Denver and Pittsburgh. Those are the teams projecting to be helped along the most by the schedules they'll play.
Arizona, Minnesota, St. Louis and Washington look like the teams that will be hurt -- they're tending to play hard schedules.
| ADJUSTED STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (over/under wins) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | Pct |
| Kansas City | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
| Denver | 119 | 136 | 1 | .467 |
| Pittsburgh | 119 | 136 | 1 | .467 |
| New England | 123 | 133 | 0 | .480 |
| Buffalo | 123 | 133 | 0 | .480 |
| Houston | 123 | 133 | 0 | .480 |
| Miami | 123 | 132 | 1 | .482 |
| Indianapolis | 123 | 132 | 1 | .482 |
| Cincinnati | 125 | 131 | 0 | .488 |
| NY Jets | 125 | 131 | 0 | .488 |
| San Diego | 125 | 131 | 0 | .488 |
| Tennessee | 125 | 131 | 0 | .488 |
| Jacksonville | 126 | 129 | 1 | .494 |
| Oakland | 127 | 128 | 1 | .498 |
| Philadelphia | 128 | 128 | 0 | .500 |
| Seattle | 128 | 128 | 0 | .500 |
| Cleveland | 128 | 127 | 1 | .502 |
| Atlanta | 129 | 127 | 0 | .504 |
| New Orleans | 129 | 127 | 0 | .504 |
| San Francisco | 129 | 126 | 1 | .506 |
| Dallas | 130 | 126 | 0 | .508 |
| NY Giants | 130 | 126 | 0 | .508 |
| Detroit | 130 | 125 | 1 | .510 |
| Baltimore | 131 | 124 | 1 | .514 |
| Tampa Bay | 131 | 124 | 1 | .514 |
| Carolina | 132 | 123 | 1 | .518 |
| Chicago | 133 | 122 | 1 | .521 |
| Green Bay | 134 | 122 | 0 | .523 |
| Washington | 134 | 121 | 1 | .525 |
| St. Louis | 134 | 121 | 1 | .525 |
| Minnesota | 136 | 119 | 1 | .533 |
| Arizona | 137 | 119 | 0 | .535 |
--Ian Allan

