Scheduling plays a role in which teams will finish with the most interceptions, and it re-inforces our belief that New England looks like the team most likely to lead everyone in pickoffs this year.
With defenses, it's not only the unit but who they're playing. There's a big difference trying to get sacks and interceptions off the likes of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, versus playing against a team like the Raiders or Jets.
So I decided to run a cross-check on some of our defensive forecasts. We've got a team forecast for each defense. Andy Richardson takes first crack at those, then I change some of them. We argue back and forth and try to get it right.
But we also have the projected interceptions THROWN by each offense. So as the offenses take shape in these key second and third preseason games, it makes sense to glance at the schedules and see who's got the most games against the likes of the Raiders, Jets, Jaguars, Chargers, etc.
Using strength of schedule, which sets aside the defense entirely, the Patriots look like the team most likely to lead the NFL in interceptions. The have some tough games (Denver, Baltimore, Houston -- those aren't interception-friendly offenses) but they've also got six in-division games against young quarterbacks -- Bills, Jets, Dolphins.
So an average defense, using our projections, would intercept 16.1 passes in those games. That's the most of any team in the league. Other interception-friendly schedules belong to the Steelers, Dolphins and Eagles. (Clarifying: Pittsburgh rarely picks off a bunch of a passes; we're not suggesting it's a group to target).
Four teams (again, forgetting all about the defenses) play schedules suggesting under 15 interceptions -- Vikings, Texans, Cardinals, 49ers.
We take this as supporting evidence that the Patriots will finish in the top 3-4 in interceptions again this year. They tended to be coached up nicely in that area anyway. Three years in a row, they've had 20-plus interceptions. So we feel comfortable slotting them for 18 picks, which is the biggest number on our board.
On the chart below, the first number (the one in the middle) is the interception total we've projected for the team. The last number is the one created by the strength of schedule -- it's the average number of picks for each opponent (using our offensive projections).
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- INTERCEPTIONS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Team | Forecast | Schedule |
| New England | 18.0 | 16.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 14.5 | 16.0 |
| Miami | 15.2 | 15.9 |
| Philadelphia | 14.7 | 15.9 |
| Carolina | 15.0 | 15.9 |
| Kansas City | 16.0 | 15.8 |
| Cincinnati | 15.7 | 15.7 |
| Green Bay | 17.2 | 15.6 |
| New Orleans | 14.5 | 15.6 |
| Denver | 15.4 | 15.6 |
| Buffalo | 15.8 | 15.5 |
| Washington | 15.7 | 15.5 |
| NY Jets | 15.5 | 15.5 |
| Detroit | 15.0 | 15.5 |
| Seattle | 17.5 | 15.4 |
| Baltimore | 16.0 | 15.4 |
| Atlanta | 15.5 | 15.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 16.8 | 15.3 |
| Dallas | 15.5 | 15.3 |
| Tennessee | 14.9 | 15.3 |
| San Diego | 14.8 | 15.3 |
| Jacksonville | 13.0 | 15.3 |
| Cleveland | 15.7 | 15.2 |
| Chicago | 17.3 | 15.2 |
| Oakland | 12.0 | 15.1 |
| St. Louis | 16.2 | 15.1 |
| NY Giants | 15.0 | 15.1 |
| Indianapolis | 15.0 | 15.0 |
| Houston | 15.6 | 14.9 |
| Minnesota | 15.0 | 14.8 |
| San Francisco | 16.3 | 14.7 |
| Arizona | 16.0 | 14.5 |
-- Ian Allan
