The Seahawks have allowed a league-low 10 points, while the Jaguars have scored a league-low 11. Plus the game is in Seattle. When these teams get together, what is the probability that the Seahawks pitch a shutout? Ian Allan explores.
Shutouts, of course, are difficult. It's tough keeping an opponent off the scoreboard for an entire game. It's happened only 16 times in the last three years. So, that's about 5 times per year out of 512 games -- about once per every 100 games.
But this one's a little different. Seattle's ranks No. 1 in scoring defense, while Jacksonville is last in scoring offense -- plus on the road.
So I've pulled out the numbers to see how these kind of games have gone in the past.
In the last 10 years, there have been 44 games where a team that finished the season in the top 3 in scoring defense (as Seattle surely will) played at home against a team that ranked in the bottom 3 in offense (and I'm comfortable saying the Jaguars will be in that group).
The dominant defense teams, no surprise, went 43-1 in those games. The 2010 Miami Dolphins were responsible for the upset, winning 23-20 at Lambeau in overtime. One other big underdog, 2006 Tampa Bay, took Chicago to overtime in 2006 before losing 34-31.
But generally, the defense teams won these games easily, by an average score of 26.9 to 8.9.
That's a total short of 36, so note for starters that the over-under of 43 points on this game looks way too high.
Only 6 of these 44 games resulted in shutout. So the usual 1-in-100 chance of a shutout is lowered to something more along the lines of 1-in-7. (I would feel better about Seattle's chances of a shutout if their former defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, wasn't on the other side -- I think they'll tend to go each on him -- plus they've got a big game next week at Houston.)
Only 11 of these offensively-challenged teams scored more than 10 points. I don't see the Jaguars making it past 10.
Over half of the offensively-challenged teams (25 of 44) scored in single digits.
If you're in a survivor pool, Seattle looks like a pretty solid choice for this week.
| Top-3 Defense vs. Bottom-3 Offense | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Defense | Offense | Score |
| 2000 | Titans | Browns | 24-10 |
| 2000 | Titans | Bengals | 35-3 |
| 2000 | Ravens | Browns | 44-7 |
| 2000 | Ravens | Bengals | 37-0 |
| 2001 | Steelers | Bengals | 16-7 |
| 2001 | Eagles | Cowboys | 40-18 |
| 2002 | Giants | Cowboys | 37-7 |
| 2002 | Eagles | Texans | 35-17 |
| 2002 | Eagles | Cowboys | 44-13 |
| 2002 | Buccaneers | Panthers | 23-10 |
| 2003 | Patriots | Giants | 17-6 |
| 2003 | Patriots | Bills | 31-0 |
| 2003 | Dolphins | Bills | 17-7 |
| 2003 | Cowboys | Giants | 19-3 |
| 2003 | Cowboys | Cardinals | 24-7 |
| 2003 | Cowboys | Bills | 10-6 |
| 2004 | Steelers | Washington | 16-7 |
| 2004 | Patriots | 49ers | 21-7 |
| 2004 | Eagles | Washington | 28-6 |
| 2005 | Steelers | Browns | 34-21 |
| 2005 | Colts | Browns | 13-6 |
| 2006 | Ravens | Raiders | 28-6 |
| 2006 | Ravens | Browns | 27-17 |
| 2006 | Bears | Buccaneers | 34-31 (OT) |
| 2007 | Steelers | Bills | 26-3 |
| 2007 | Steelers | 49ers | 37-16 |
| 2007 | Colts | Chiefs | 13-10 |
| 2008 | Titans | Browns | 28-9 |
| 2008 | Steelers | Browns | 31-0 |
| 2008 | Steelers | Bengals | 27-10 |
| 2008 | Ravens | Browns | 28-10 |
| 2008 | Ravens | Bengals | 17-10 |
| 2009 | Cowboys | Raiders | 24-7 |
| 2010 | Steelers | Panthers | 27-3 |
| 2010 | Steelers | Browns | 28-10 |
| 2010 | Ravens | Dolphins | 26-10 |
| 2010 | Ravens | Browns | 24-17 |
| 2010 | Packers | Dolphins | 20-23 (OT) |
| 2011 | Steelers | Rams | 27-0 |
| 2011 | Steelers | Browns | 14-3 |
| 2011 | Ravens | Browns | 20-14 |
| 2011 | 49ers | Rams | 26-0 |
| 2012 | Seahawks | Cardinals | 58-0 |
| 2012 | 49ers | Cardinals | 27-13 |
| 2013 | Seahawks | Jaguars | |
--Ian Allan