After seeing each team three times, we can revise our projected wins for each teams. After looking at each of the remaining 208 regular-season games, the playoff field gets a few tweeks.
Denver, New England, Baltimore and Houston. Those look like your division winners on the AFC side. Broncos and Patriots should have the first-round byes.
In the NFC, Seattle, New Orleans, Chicago and Dallas look like the division winners, with the Seahawks and Saints the favorites for home-field advantage. (Those teams meet at CenturyLink later this year in a key game.)
Wild cards: Kansas City, Cincinnati, Green Bay and San Francisco.
Colts, Dolphins, Titans and Lions all could wind up with 9 wins and miss the postseason. There's also no room for the Falcons.
At the other end of the spectrum, I've got two Florida teams holding the top 2 picks of the draft: Jaguars and Bucs.
Let me know where you think I'm wrong.
Projected Wins For Each Team | |
---|---|
Team | Wins |
Denver | 12.7 |
New England | 12.2 |
Seattle | 12.0 |
New Orleans | 11.0 |
Kansas City | 10.6 |
Baltimore | 10.1 |
Chicago | 10.1 |
Cincinnati | 10.0 |
Houston | 9.8 |
Green Bay | 9.6 |
Indianapolis | 9.4 |
Miami | 9.2 |
San Francisco | 9.2 |
Dallas | 9.1 |
Tennessee | 8.9 |
Detroit | 8.5 |
Atlanta | 8.4 |
St. Louis | 7.6 |
Carolina | 7.4 |
Philadelphia | 7.2 |
San Diego | 6.7 |
Buffalo | 6.2 |
NY Giants | 6.1 |
NY Jets | 6.0 |
Pittsburgh | 6.0 |
Cleveland | 5.6 |
Arizona | 5.5 |
Washington | 5.4 |
Oakland | 5.0 |
Minnesota | 4.8 |
Tampa Bay | 3.5 |
Jacksonville | 2.9 |
WIN POTENTIAL FOR REMAINING GAMES
Week 4
Philadelphia 5% at Denver 95%
Miami 15% at New Orleans 85%
NY Jets 15% at Tennessee 85%
NY Giants 25% at Kansas City 75%
Chicago 45% at Detroit 55%
Seattle 45% at Houston 55%
Washington 45% at Oakland 55%
San Francisco 45% at St. Louis 55%
Arizona 45% at Tampa Bay 55%
Dallas 50% at San Diego 50%
New England 55% at Atlanta 45%
Pittsburgh 55% at Minnesota 45%
Baltimore 60% at Buffalo 40%
Cincinnati 65% at Cleveland 35%
Indianapolis 85% at Jacksonville 15%
Week 5
Jacksonville 7% at St. Louis 93%
NY Jets 15% at Atlanta 85%
Detroit 15% at Green Bay 85%
Philadelphia 40% at NY Giants 60%
Houston 40% at San Francisco 60%
Carolina 45% at Arizona 55%
New Orleans 45% at Chicago 55%
Buffalo 45% at Cleveland 55%
Kansas City 45% at Tennessee 55%
Seattle 50% at Indianapolis 50%
New England 55% at Cincinnati 45%
Baltimore 55% at Miami 45%
San Diego 55% at Oakland 45%
Denver 60% at Dallas 40%
Week 6
Jacksonville 2% at Denver 98%
Arizona 10% at San Francisco 90%
Tennessee 10% at Seattle 90%
Oakland 15% at Kansas City 85%
NY Giants 25% at Chicago 75%
Washington 25% at Dallas 75%
St. Louis 35% at Houston 65%
New Orleans 35% at New England 65%
Green Bay 40% at Baltimore 60%
Carolina 40% at Minnesota 60%
Detroit 50% at Cleveland 50%
Pittsburgh 55% at NY Jets 45%
Indianapolis 55% at San Diego 45%
Philadelphia 55% at Tampa Bay 45%
Cincinnati 60% at Buffalo 40%
Week 7
Tampa Bay 10% at Atlanta 90%
Cleveland 10% at Green Bay 90%
Buffalo 30% at Miami 70%
St. Louis 35% at Carolina 65%
Minnesota 35% at NY Giants 65%
Cincinnati 45% at Detroit 55%
Dallas 45% at Philadelphia 55%
Houston 50% at Kansas City 50%
San Francisco 50% at Tennessee 50%
Chicago 50% at Washington 50%
San Diego 55% at Jacksonville 45%
Baltimore 55% at Pittsburgh 45%
Denver 60% at Indianapolis 40%
Seattle 65% at Arizona 35%
New England 90% at NY Jets 10%
Week 8
NY Jets 10% at Cincinnati 90%
Washington 10% at Denver 90%
Cleveland 10% at Kansas City 90%
Miami 10% at New England 90%
Buffalo 15% at New Orleans 85%
NY Giants 35% at Philadelphia 65%
Dallas 45% at Detroit 55%
Pittsburgh 45% at Oakland 55%
Seattle 50% at St. Louis 50%
Green Bay 55% at Minnesota 45%
Atlanta 60% at Arizona 40%
Carolina 60% at Tampa Bay 40%
San Francisco 80% at Jacksonville 20%
Week 9
Tampa Bay 2% at Seattle 98%
Pittsburgh 5% at New England 95%
Minnesota 20% at Dallas 80%
Chicago 35% at Green Bay 65%
San Diego 35% at Washington 65%
Atlanta 40% at Carolina 60%
Tennessee 40% at St. Louis 60%
Indianapolis 45% at Houston 55%
Kansas City 50% at Buffalo 50%
Cincinnati 55% at Miami 45%
Philadelphia 55% at Oakland 45%
Baltimore 65% at Cleveland 35%
New Orleans 75% at NY Jets 25%
Week 10
Jacksonville 10% at Tennessee 90%
Carolina 15% at San Francisco 85%
Philadelphia 20% at Green Bay 80%
Oakland 20% at NY Giants 80%
Buffalo 20% at Pittsburgh 80%
Detroit 25% at Chicago 75%
Dallas 25% at New Orleans 75%
St. Louis 35% at Indianapolis 65%
Cincinnati 40% at Baltimore 60%
Washington 40% at Minnesota 60%
Seattle 50% at Atlanta 50%
Miami 60% at Tampa Bay 40%
Houston 65% at Arizona 35%
Denver 75% at San Diego 25%
Week 11
Minnesota 5% at Seattle 95%
Oakland 10% at Houston 90%
Cleveland 15% at Cincinnati 85%
San Diego 30% at Miami 70%
NY Jets 35% at Buffalo 65%
Kansas City 35% at Denver 65%
Washington 35% at Philadelphia 65%
San Francisco 40% at New Orleans 60%
Detroit 40% at Pittsburgh 60%
Baltimore 45% at Chicago 55%
Arizona 45% at Jacksonville 55%
Indianapolis 45% at Tennessee 55%
Green Bay 50% at NY Giants 50%
New England 60% at Carolina 40%
Atlanta 65% at Tampa Bay 35%
Week 12
NY Jets 5% at Baltimore 95%
Jacksonville 5% at Houston 95%
Tampa Bay 10% at Detroit 90%
Minnesota 10% at Green Bay 90%
San Diego 30% at Kansas City 70%
Carolina 35% at Miami 65%
Pittsburgh 40% at Cleveland 60%
Dallas 40% at NY Giants 60%
New Orleans 45% at Atlanta 55%
Chicago 45% at St. Louis 55%
Denver 50% at New England 50%
Tennessee 55% at Oakland 45%
San Francisco 55% at Washington 45%
Indianapolis 60% at Arizona 40%
Week 13
Oakland 10% at Dallas 90%
Pittsburgh 15% at Baltimore 85%
Tampa Bay 15% at Carolina 85%
Jacksonville 15% at Cleveland 85%
New Orleans 25% at Seattle 75%
Arizona 30% at Philadelphia 70%
St. Louis 30% at San Francisco 70%
Tennessee 40% at Indianapolis 60%
NY Giants 40% at Washington 60%
Green Bay 45% at Detroit 55%
Atlanta 50% at Buffalo 50%
New England 50% at Houston 50%
Chicago 50% at Minnesota 50%
Miami 50% at NY Jets 50%
Denver 55% at Kansas City 45%
Cincinnati 60% at San Diego 40%
Week 14
Cleveland 5% at New England 95%
Minnesota 15% at Baltimore 85%
Tennessee 15% at Denver 85%
Carolina 20% at New Orleans 80%
Atlanta 25% at Green Bay 75%
Oakland 25% at NY Jets 75%
Detroit 35% at Philadelphia 65%
Dallas 40% at Chicago 60%
Indianapolis 40% at Cincinnati 60%
Miami 40% at Pittsburgh 60%
NY Giants 40% at San Diego 60%
Seattle 45% at San Francisco 55%
St. Louis 50% at Arizona 50%
Kansas City 50% at Washington 50%
Buffalo 55% at Tampa Bay 45%
Houston 80% at Jacksonville 20%
Week 15
San Diego 7% at Denver 93%
Arizona 15% at Tennessee 85%
Washington 20% at Atlanta 80%
NY Jets 20% at Carolina 80%
Philadelphia 40% at Minnesota 60%
Green Bay 45% at Dallas 55%
Baltimore 45% at Detroit 55%
Houston 45% at Indianapolis 55%
New Orleans 45% at St. Louis 55%
Buffalo 50% at Jacksonville 50%
Cincinnati 55% at Pittsburgh 45%
Seattle 60% at NY Giants 40%
Kansas City 60% at Oakland 40%
Chicago 65% at Cleveland 35%
San Francisco 65% at Tampa Bay 35%
New England 70% at Miami 30%
Week 16
Arizona 5% at Seattle 95%
Tampa Bay 10% at St. Louis 90%
Minnesota 15% at Cincinnati 85%
Pittsburgh 15% at Green Bay 85%
Oakland 20% at San Diego 80%
NY Giants 25% at Detroit 75%
Atlanta 30% at San Francisco 70%
Cleveland 35% at NY Jets 65%
New England 45% at Baltimore 55%
Miami 45% at Buffalo 55%
New Orleans 45% at Carolina 55%
Indianapolis 45% at Kansas City 55%
Chicago 50% at Philadelphia 50%
Dallas 50% at Washington 50%
Denver 55% at Houston 45%
Tennessee 55% at Jacksonville 45%
Week 17
Jacksonville 5% at Indianapolis 95%
Buffalo 5% at New England 95%
Tampa Bay 5% at New Orleans 95%
St. Louis 20% at Seattle 80%
NY Jets 25% at Miami 75%
Cleveland 25% at Pittsburgh 75%
Philadelphia 30% at Dallas 70%
Carolina 35% at Atlanta 65%
Washington 40% at NY Giants 60%
Baltimore 45% at Cincinnati 55%
Detroit 45% at Minnesota 55%
Kansas City 45% at San Diego 55%
Houston 45% at Tennessee 55%
Green Bay 50% at Chicago 50%
San Francisco 55% at Arizona 45%
Denver 90% at Oakland 10%