Luke Wilson answers your fantasy football questions. Can Brady the head coach keep Buffalo scoring in bunches? What's the dream scenario for Breece Hall this fall? Are we getting any cold feet sensations on a couple of big dollar dynasty investment receivers heading into Year 3? And more.
Question 1
I've spent considerable time looking up Joe Brady in the wake of his promotion (yeah, a weird way to put it). I've found very little to suggest anything in Buffalo's offense improving. Since I have Allen in a pair of keeper leagues, I'm grasping for some insights on that situation. And thanks in advance for anything resembling a thumbs-up!
Paul Desimone (Hayward, CA)
For starters, let's clarify: While these sorts of things can change if the going gets tough, Joe Brady has confirmed he plans to retain playcalling responsibilities. That's good, we can reasonably expect a lot of continuity here. When Joe Brady was promoted to OC, he didn't exactly have small shoes to fill. In his first (and only) full season running the show, Ken Dorsey's 2022 unit hummed: 398 yards and 28.4 points/game, both 2nd in the NFL that year. Even upon his dismissal they weren't exactly floundering (370 yards, 26.2 ppg). Globally, Buffalo's offense hasn't significantly improved on how it was producing pre-Brady.
What did change: The run game. Brady turned the rushing spigot wide open and kept it that way: Buffalo ran for 116 yards per game over Dorsey's final 10 games at the helm; they've averaged 30 more yards a game rushing under Brady. The difference has been even more stark on the touchdown front: Dorsey's Bills scored 27 times on the ground under Dorsey, so exactly 1 TD for each of his 27 games as OC (including a measly 3 for James Cook!). Under Brady, Buffalo has produced a gaudy 1.75 rushing TDs per game, leading the league in rushing TDs each of the last two seasons — and Allen's been the tip of this rushing spear. Heading into 2023, Allen was averaging just under 0.5 rushing TDs per game for his career. He's scored 0.8 times per game on the ground ever since - 0.83/game under Brady.
Allen's passing numbers have tapered off a fair amount; he hasn't thrown for 3800 yards in either of Brady's full seasons, and barring some major reinforcements at receiver there's little reason to think that trend reverses. But when your rushing touchdowns are up almost 70 percent — well, that'll do pig, that'll do. Stay the course with Allen, as he figures to continue to offer '1-of-1' levels of production at the position in 2026.
Question 2
What is the key trait to look for in WRs in this and other classes, as we know the archetype of a typical X WR can differ. To put it another way, do you think or when do you think there will be a shift in the archetype of the X WR or have we hit perfection in Alec Pierce?
Omari Watson ()
Hasn't that shift already begun? Alec Pierce is a great example of why it has. Pierce's 21.3 yards per reception last year was a mighty impressive number all by itself, but when you consider he was one of only two players to average more than 18 yards a catch last year that also caught more than 20 passes, his status as a true outlier becomes all the more apparent.
And yet Pierce finished 73rd in the league in receptions, tied with rookies like Luther Burden and, humorously, RJ Harvey.
In 2011, Victor Cruz became the first receiver in six years to finish in both the top 3 in yards per reception and even the top 30 in receptions. This kicks off a mini-renaissance of 'big play, moderate volume' receiver seasons: Vincent Jackson does it in 2012, followed by Josh Gordon's infamous 2013. Only one other player manages the feat the rest of the decade (Mike Evans, 2017). The 2021 season kicked off another run like the one a decade earlier, with both Deebo Samuel and Ja'Marr Chase breezing into the club in 2021, Jaylen Waddle and A.J. Brown the year after. All of 2023's yard per reception leaders (George Pickens, Brandon Aiyuk and Amari Cooper) finished in the top 50 in the league in receptions that year, the only time that's happened in the 21st century.
This trend has since reversed, sharply. The last two seasons have seen none of their three leading receivers in yards per receptions finish in the top 50 in receiving volume that year, the first time that's happened in consecutive seasons since 2015-'16. Downfield operators being more specialized in that role has been cyclical in the last 20-odd years, and right now we're seeing it swing hard back toward guys who are strict best ball plays.
All that to say is that when we're looking at rookie wideouts, one of the traits we certainly want to see right now is that they consumed a large portion of their team's overall passing opportunities, i.e. their target share. With players making (big) money in college, staying in college a little longer and sharing the field with future NFL hopefuls slightly more often, players who can still command upwards of 25, 30 percent of their team's overall targets need to have our attention. They certainly had their quarterback's.
Question 3
Assuming that Breece Hall either hits unrestricted free agency, or the more likely scenario based on recent reports, gets hit with the franchise tag but then becomes available on the trade block, what team(s) would you like to see him on for fantasy purposes, and what team(s) do you think would be most likely to want him based on their current cap and roster situation?
Bill Hall (Franklin Township, NJ)
Howdy Bill. There's a lot of speculation about whether the Jets will apply the franchise tag or the much less commonly utilized transition tag. I'll skip all that theorycraft and just cut to the chase.
There's a decent list of suspects to choose from for a (still very hypothetical) new team for Hall. Two that I'll lead off with that are definite longshots: Jacksonville and Seattle, both of whom could be letting their own lead backs scoot out the door in free agency in a few weeks' time. Nothing wrong with Kenneth Walker nor Travis Etienne as players — which is precisely why either of those teams rather explicitly opting to pay Breece Hall over them would get my attention in a hurry.
Houston has been mentioned as a potential fit, depending on how they view Woody Marks' audition and Joe Mixon's status for 2026 (wouldn't hold my breath on the latter). And then of course there's his current team in the Jets, who have every reason to want to retain and feature Hall in whatever offense they can muster this fall. It hasn't often been pretty for Hall in New York, but he's generally remained startable through the worst of it, particularly in full PPR formats.
But let's be real, the two best options that could really happen are Denver and Kansas City. The Broncos are clearly angling for some kind of upgrade on veteran free agent J.K. Dobbins, and a true dual threat running back that can also handle workhorse volume if asked to is something Payton's coveted since leaving behind Alvin Kamara in New Orleans. Hall would garner late first round consideration in fantasy drafts as a Bronco.
And he'd be assured of it as a Chief. With only second-year former wideout Brashard Smith currently under contract in the backfield, Hall heading home to Kansas City could realistically see him amass upwards of 60 receptions and 300 touches. With obvious ties to both the region and the team itself, the Chiefs and Jets righting the wrong of their stalled negotiations on Hall four months ago would make for both a great story and a potential RB1 finish.
Question 4
Superflex Dynasty Would you rather keep betting on great prospects like Rome Odunze or Marvin Harrison Jr Or Re-roll for a 2026 1st round pick that could land you one of the top 3 Wr prospects in the class Carnell Tate, Makai Lemon or Jordyn Tyson?
Luis L (Houston , TX)
Two different answers for two different players, my friend. With the junior Harrison I am staying in until they pry what's left of me out of the safety harness. Yes, I know it's been a deeply uneven first two years, and yes I know he's got major target competition now with the abrupt emergence of Michael Wilson. Simply put, Harrison's greatest strength aligned with what turned out to have become Kyler Murray's greatest weakness: Winning on downfield boundary shots where the quarterback trusts his guy to win more than he loses. The advanced metrics on Murray the last four years are deafening: He has been the worst quarterback in the NFL throwing 10+ yards downfield for some time now, a trend that did not abate with Harrison's arrival. You can assert that that's because Harrison wasn't good enough, but I'm personally not onboard.
Odunze, different story. Good player, still has plenty of potential, etc., etc. And it would certainly be premature to even begin writing him off just because he had a middling rookie season on the doomed final iteration of the Eberflus Bears and played hurt the last half of last season. Odunze was the clear focal point of the offense last September, and still logged 10 targets in Weeks 8 and 10 - in an ascending offense, that kind of volume access is what this game's all about.
But while Harrison's competition doesn't spook me too bad, with Odunze it does a bit. Colston Loveland and Luther Burden showed too much ability to think they're going anywhere but up in this pecking order, and while the Bears dealing DJ Moore to alleviate some of this pressure would make some sense there are also 23,485,000 reasons for them not to do that this year. I'm not gnawing my arm off to get Odunze away from me of course, but one of this year's emerging 'Big 3' at receiver could land somewhere with access to a Day 1 target share that could be tricky for Odunze to match. If that happens: Going forward into 2027, how sure are you that Odunze's flat out better than the 1-2 best of those guys?
