Factoid

September 26, 2013

Picking on weak defenses

How soft is a group like the Giants?

New York has allowed 30-plus points in each of its first three games, but how bad is this defense actually? Should fantasy leaguers plug in Kansas City players looking for another scoring outburst? Ian Allan explores.

I had a chart in the Fantasy Index Weekly, showing how defenses fared that had allowed 90-plus points in the first three weeks of the season. Now let me expand that. Below are all 75 defenses that sometime since 2002 have allowed at least 30 points three games in a row.

Just how bad do these defenses tend to perform in their next game?

Coaches are changing schemes and lineups, of course. Players are coming back from injuries. And scheduling no doubt plays a roll.

But you may be surprised that if you look at those 75 teams -- seemingly all weak, hapless defenses -- in their next game after the three-game skid, more of the allowed under 20 points than allowed 30-plus again.

Of the 75, 22 held their next opponent to 19 or fewer points. That's good -- in today's NFL, it's tough holding opponents under 20. Slightly fewer (20 of 75) allowed 30-plus points again for a fourth straight games.

The remaining 33 teams allowed 20-29 points in that next game. Overall, this group allowed 24.4 points per game, which is only slightly over the league average (3 points over the league average).

So while Kansas City is playing at home, I don't expect a scoring outburst this week. New York's defense, I figure, isn't quite as bad as the scoring numbers suggest. I remember them playing well in that first game at Dallas (where the Cowboys got a whole bunch of turnovers, including two returned for touchdowns). Kansas City struggled at times last week against a pretty soft Philadelphia defense. And New York has the backs-to-the-wall deal working in its favor.

Teams allowing 30-plus points three straight weeks
Year	Team	G 1	G 2	G 3	G 4
2002	NY Jets	31	44	30	28
2002	Seattle	31	32	31	27
2002	Detroit	49	31	37	21
2002	Arizona	38	41	49	20
2002	Houston	35	31	34	19
2002	Tennessee	31	52	31	14
2002	Green Bay	34	35	31	14
2003	Atlanta	39	36	45	23
2004	Oakland	35	31	31	42
2004	Tennessee	31	51	49	40
2004	Tennessee	51	49	40	37
2004	Oakland	34	35	35	31
2004	Oakland	30	35	31	31
2004	Oakland	31	31	42	24
2004	San Francisco	42	37	35	24
2004	NY Giants	31	37	33	23
2004	Cleveland	58	42	37	21
2004	Tennessee	49	40	37	19
2004	Minnesota	34	31	34	19
2004	Oakland	35	35	31	13
2005	San Francisco	42	34	31	28
2005	St. Louis	44	37	45	17
2005	Houston	34	42	38	16
2005	Houston	31	45	33	16
2006	Detroit	34	31	41	26
2006	St. Louis	30	38	31	24
2006	Green Bay	35	34	38	19
2007	Atlanta	34	37	30	41
2007	Miami	37	31	35	22
2007	Houston	37	38	35	17
2007	Cleveland	30	31	30	17
2007	New Orleans	41	31	31	16
2007	San Diego	38	31	30	3
2008	Detroit	38	31	38	47
2008	Detroit	34	48	31	34
2008	St. Louis	38	41	37	31
2008	Houston	38	31	30	31
2008	San Francisco	31	30	40	29
2008	Houston	31	30	31	28
2008	St. Louis	34	47	35	27
2008	Detroit	31	38	47	20
2008	New Orleans	30	32	34	20
2008	St. Louis	41	37	31	17
2008	Denver	38	32	33	13
2008	Detroit	48	31	34	12
2009	St. Louis	36	35	38	23
2009	Tennessee	37	31	59	13
2010	Buffalo	38	38	36	37
2010	Buffalo	34	38	38	36
2010	Dallas	30	35	30	30
2010	Houston	34	31	30	29
2010	Indianapolis	31	36	38	28
2010	Dallas	35	30	30	27
2010	Carolina	34	31	37	24
2010	Houston	34	34	31	24
2010	Dallas	41	35	45	20
2010	Buffalo	38	36	37	13
2010	Seattle	40	34	38	6
2011	Tampa Bay	41	31	48	45
2011	Arizona	31	34	32	30
2011	Minnesota	35	34	42	26
2011	NY Giants	49	38	34	23
2011	Carolina	34	30	31	20
2011	Arizona	34	32	30	13
2011	NY Jets	34	34	30	6
2011	Tampa Bay	38	41	31	48
2012	Tennessee	34	38	41	38
2012	Philadelphia	38	31	30	38
2012	Oakland	42	55	38	34
2012	Tennessee	38	41	38	30
2012	Oakland	35	31	37	23
2012	Tennessee	41	38	30	23
2012	Washington	32	31	38	22
2012	Philadelphia	31	30	38	21
2012	Oakland	55	38	34	20

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