Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: What the heck is going on with the St. Louis offense? Why is Dwayne Bowe ranked so high? And Ian's favorite position.
Question 1
Did I mistakenly buy the April Fools edition of the Index? You know, the one over hyping the Rams passing offense? Sam Bradford looks like Trent Edwards, Tavon Austin will set the all-time running backwards record and Cook and Givens are invisible ... Greatest Fraud on Turf? Somewhere Tatum Bell is smiling.
peter chen (STANFORD, CA)
It was a disappointing night at the office for them, that’s for sure. The defense held San Francisco down for awhile, but the Rams never took advantage of the opportunity to move ahead and take control of the game. No running game. They benched Daryl Richardson for the first three series of the second half, but I don’t think it’s a running back problem. I don’t think that it’s that Richardson isn’t running hard or not seeing the holes. There are no holes. They’re typically going with spread sets, and they’re trying to play two pass-catching tight ends. Jared Cook and Lance Kendricks, those guys aren’t tight ends – they essentially just big wide receivers. Both had huge errors blocking last night. Richardson isn’t a good blocker either. So what you have is a team trying to play Arena-style ball. So the 49ers just came after them hard and punched them in the mouth. With neither Aldon Smith nor Patrick Willis playing, I was shocked how much pressure Sam Bradford was under and how St. Louis simply couldn’t run the ball at all. It was a disaster. They need to go back to the drawing board and make major offensive changes. But I think they can do that; there is some talent there. Givens, Cook, Austin, Pettis. Those aren’t great players, but they’re good enough skills guys outside. That offense should be a lot better. Next one is against Jacksonville; that will help. (The two after are at Houston and at Carolina, which won’t).
Question 2
I can’t think of anything more frustrating than losing a game because of kickers. It’s the most disrespected position, and always drafted last. But yet, the fantasy football community still continues to incorporate them in their leagues. Are we just continuing to include kickers on fantasy rosters because that’s how it’s always been? Seems a little outdated. What do you think of Fantasy Football Index being the pioneers on this subject and completely eliminating the kicker position and breakdown from next year’s magazine? Many of us would thank you!
Cody Hager (ALOHA, OR)
Sorry, man. I love kickers. It’s actually kind of my favorite position. I love scouting them, and looking at all the different variables – accuracy from 50-plus, efficiency in the 40-to-49 yard range, touchback rates, etc. It’s a position, oddly, where guys tend to get better in their 30s (I think it’s kind of like golf, where the mental component becomes more important). And I’m shocked how much better they guys keep getting every year. They just keep getting more and more accurate, and effectiveness and production from long range just keeps improving. There’s a guy who specializes primarily in kickers, and has for years. Rick Gonsalves. He’s kind of recognized as the expert on kicking. He’s got a book that should be coming out soon, “Placekicking in the NFL.” It’s a book I’ll be adding to my resource shelf. It’s just what I do. When scouting these guys, particularly on a week-to-week basis, I tend to focus on getting a kicker on one of the best teams. Which teams are most likely to wind up in the Super Bowl? Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks, 49ers. These are the kickers you want to have. Then, if said kickers happens to be in a tough matchup, you rotate him out that week for some kicker who happens to be facing a tomato can opponent like Jacksonville or Oakland. It’s all good in theory, and in the long run it will work. But there will always be weeks where it blows up in your face. Phil Dawson is the kicker for almost all of my teams this year, and he scored only 1 point on Sunday against the Colts.
Question 3
How can you have Dwayne Bowe ranked at 27 with 120.6 points in the re drafter but write this in the team capsule? "Dwayne Bowe looks like he’s going to be a disappointment. Bowe is the clear No. 1 receiver on this team, but Smith isn’t going to turn him into a guy who’ll catch 80 passes and 9 TDs."
eric overdahl (milford, MA)
I spent 4-5 hours yesterday, going through and carefully auditing each player on each team. I can make changes on the fly on Sunday-Morning, after the team has played, but there really isn’t enough time there to look at each player carefully. The slower, more careful look must occur later in the week. I like to do it with all of the 2013 games in front of me, but also with my preseason notebook on each team, where I can see what the team and the players have done the last two years. After those revisions, Bowe has now dropped down into the 30s. He’s the No. 1 receiver there. He’ll be better than Donnie Avery (these rankings are for what happened in Philadelphia, where Avery caught 7 for 141, they’re for what I believe will happen in Weeks 4-17). The trouble, I think, is Alex Smith. He doesn’t want to take any chances or try to get the ball downfield. Think of Michael Crabtree, who seems to be a pretty similar receiver to Bowe. Crabtree never did anything with Smith at quarterback. As soon as Kaepernick took over there, Crabtree then became a top-10 receiver in the second half of last year. As well as Kansas City is playing (sitting at 3-0 and looking like a playoff game), it will be hard for Bowe to be a top-25 receiver. But he is a clear No. 1 guy, and there aren’t a lot of those around. So I think about as low as you go is No. 35. I expect he’ll finish with about 900 yards and 5-6 TDs.
Question 4
I really wish you would provide a KEEPER League Redrafter as well to help us Keeper League guys with trades and such AND so I wouldn’t have to bother you with these type of questions- but- anyways- thinking about trading E Lacy for Spiller in a PPR Keeper. What are your thoughts and could you make a quick list of middle tiered players (we still know Calvin Johnson, AP & Aaron Rodgers are at the top) for each category so we get an idea of what your thoughts are long term for these tradable guys.
MONTE MCDONALD (LAS VEGAS, NV)
It’s a slippery issue. You want rankings for a keeper league? Or a dynasty league? Whether you’re keeping only four-five players or keeping everyone, that would make a big difference, wouldn’t it? (If you’re keeping only five, for example, then we need not bother looking at ages of kickers, and we need not think about considering sticking a youngster like Ladarius Green in the top 25 at tight end – thinking he’ll be the starter in San Diego in 2014.) Or maybe you would want Green, if it’s a deal where you draft him in the 22nd round and then you can utilize to keep him at the cost of losing your 22nd choice next year (versus keeping a guy like Zach Ertz and maybe losing a 13th-round choice). We get into the issue of trying to win in 2014-15, versus trying to win in years 2015-2025, while keeping in mind that teams have the flexibility to adjust with draft picks, waiver claims and trades. That makes it really tough to weigh win-now quarterbacks like Manning, Brady and Brees against these young guns who are just getting started – Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick, Griffin. And is this keeper league (or dynasty league) that we’re in even going to be around in 5 years? Team needs play a huge role (are you looking for a wide receiver who can play now? Or do you want a high-upside guy who might be good in a year or two?) It all gets very complicated, and we haven’t even gotten into the issue of there being dozens of different scoring systems. There’s a huge difference between a PPR league starting three wide receives and a standard league with two wide receivers and a TD-only league with 6-point TD passes, and all of the leagues in-between. So the best way to handle this kind of league (I think) is to throw out a one-size-fits-all rough draft type of list in the preseason, granting that there are limitations. Then, going forward, as you manage your team, you can check back with me throughout the season, bouncing ideas off me and whatnot. That’s the case this week, with Lacy versus Spiller. I think those guys probably have similar value. Spiller is a little older and has had durability issues, so Lacy might have a few more games left in his career. Spiller catches a few more passes, which works in his favor in a PPR format. I don’t have a strong preference for either guy. Without quite being able to put my finger on it, I believe give a slight edge to Spiller.
Question 5
I’m in a league where QBs get 5 points at 300 yards passing, another 5 at 350/400/450 etc. I’m disappointed in Tony Romo’s yardage numbers, especially his 210 yards last game. His three TDs at 6 points each helped, though. It looks like Dallas’ talk about offensive balance wasn’t just talk. Do you think Romo can start passing for 300+ regularly, or should I try to trade for Stafford or even Brady?
Tim Johnson ()
If you want yards, Stafford will beat Romo. The Lions run that one-dimensional pass-heavy offense. When they throw the short little balls to Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, those are kind of their running plays. He’s going to go over 300 yards in just about every game, and he’ll probably hit 350 a few times. There should be just a little more balance in the Dallas offense. But let’s not kick Romo to the curb just yet. He’s going to go over 300 in plenty of games as well. Let’s not overreact to one lesser game. Romo passed for 298 yards in Kansas City the previous week, and that’s a good defense. The next six games on the Cowboys’ schedule are against San Diego, Denver, Washington, Philadelphia, Detroit and Minnesota. Plenty of weak pass defenses in there. I expect Romo will go over 300 in at least four of those games.
Question 6
In a 3WR, 0.5-PPR league, I’ve got Calvin and a fellow owner is desperate for the guy. He’s offering Brandon Marshall, and the only way I’d consider it is with an awesome kick-in. He’s offering Jermichael Finley AND Mike Wallace, but I’ve got Gronk due back any minute and Wallace might not be a better WR3 option that my current guys (Michael Floyd, Mike Williams, Andre Roberts, Rueben Randle). Bottom line: do you think I seriously need an upgrade on those WR3 options? And what kick-in would be good enough for you to swap Calvin for Marshall? My options are DeAndre Hopkins, Miles Austin, and Willis McGahee ... are any of those options attractive enough for you?
Justin Howe (Morristown, TN)
I’d be all over that deal. In my opinion, Marshall is almost as good as Megatron. I’ve got him as the No. 2 wide receiver on that board in that format. This guy, for reasons unknown, a big pile of valuable ancillary parts if you’re willing to move down from the No. 1 to the No. 2 spot at wide receiver. Finley is probably going to finish the season as a top-5 tight end in that format; that would end any concerns you have about Gronk – and maybe you trade one of those guys later on. Wallace is definitely going to be better than Floyd, Williams, Roberts and Randle. I’m in.
Question 7
Ugh! Kickers have to be the most difficult position to project. One week they get four opportunities but then the next week they score 1 point. For my team, the Frisco kicker is frustrating! This is NOT a complaining comment at all, more of a "I’m ready to throw darts" at FA kickers.
Barret Glasnapp (UNDERWOOD, IA)
I feel your pain. I’ve got Phil Dawson as the kicker on most of my teams. That looked like a very good matchup against the Colts. I’m giving him a mulligan for now. The 49ers should be able to turn things around; I think that’s a strong playoff team. And he’s been pretty remarkable the last two years, hitting 14 of 15 field goals from 50-plus yards. Of course, that didn’t help last night, when he missed a 53-yarder in the dome in St. Louis. He’s scored only 3, 1 and 5 points in his last three games. Groan.
Question 8
Would you trade Adrian Peterson for Calvin Johnson and Trent Richardson?
KEITH MILLER (HOOVER, AL)
I would take the Johnson-Richardson package over Peterson. Johnson is similar in value to Peterson by himself (actually even better in a PPR format) and Richardson is a nice throw-in.