Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Trying to make sense of the Trent Richardson trade. Does one start him this week? And does Willis McGahee have any value? Ian isn't giving up on David Wilson. And why a good fantasy team tends to result in a more unhappy fantasy coach.
Question 1
This week two running backs will be starting that were not on their respective teams last week. What is the success rate for a running back the first week they come aboard who are projected to start? When should we expect the RB to be at full speed?
ERIC SCOLNICK (Redmond, WA)
That’s a great question. Thank you for writing in – this is the kind of issue I love to address in the Mailbag. Great idea. In-season trades, of course, are rare in the NFL. But there have been a few. Eric Dickerson and Hershel Walker, most notably – guys at the time who were more coveted than Trent Richardson is now. A level (or two) down, there was Mike Rozier, a former Heisman winner that the Oilers gave up on (but that Atlanta wanted to be their guy.) None of those guys scored in their first games with their new teams. Dickerson carried 10 times for 38 yards, with a reception for 28. It was the next week, in his first game home game, that he really went off – 138 yards against the Chargers. Walker opened at home, and started with a bang – 18 carries for 148 yards against the Packers. (Walker, by the way, also had played against the Packers the previous week as a member of the Cowboys). The Falcons eased in Rozier, having him split time with Steve Broussard. Just 13 carries for 39 yards in that first game (at home against New Orleans), and only 11 carries for 20 yards the next week. It wasn’t until late that season that Rozier had three 100-yard games. While slightly different, we can also toss holdout rookies into this discussion. Barry Sanders signed on a Thursday, then carried 9 times for 71 yards in his debut (at home) against the Phoenix Cardinals. Emmitt Smith signed the Tuesday before the first game and carried only 2 times for 2 yards. (Neither Sanders not Smith had much of an impact in Week 2). Those are the only rookie running backs I can recall who didn’t sign until September. But circling back to Richardson (and Willis McGahee). With Richardson, he’s got a tough debut: on the road against a San Francisco team that should be made. Chuck Pagano says Richardson will play extensively, but not a great spot. It probably will be the following week, at Jacksonville, that he makes a run at his first 100-yard game. Then Richardson adds a considerable wild-card factor into what looms as a really intriguing Week 5 game against Seattle (his home debut). McGahee will be 32 next month and hasn’t been in a camp. I would be surprised if the Browns risk giving him more than 10 touches. I think they’ll mix him in with Chris Ogbonnaya and Bobby Rainey in what should be a very forgettable Sunday in the Metrodome.
Question 2
I am still happy with my draft, but unhappy with my coaching. For the second week in a row, I had more points from my bench than my starters. Any chance of a lineup review? QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE, K DST? QB - Luck, Vick. RB - Johnson, Morris, Bernard, Richardson. WR/TE - Julio Jones, Torrey Smith, Mike Williams, Greg Olsen, Owen Daniels. K - Tucker, Bailey. DST - Bungles, Cardinals. P.S. Thanks for Morris last year. I won the league and had this year's keeper from the 13th round!
Jane Gayamat (BELLINGHAM, WA)
As your team gets better, it becomes more and more likely that there will be backups that will outscore starters. That’s frustrating and annoying, but would you be happier if you had crappy backups and you never made a coaching error? Now that Bernard is emerging in Cincinnati, you could have four good running back choices on many weeks. Suppose all those guys were equally good. Then, with each guy, you kind of about a 50 percent chance of being right. When you’ve four of those backs, trying to hit on all four 50-50 decisions, the odds become very strong that you’ll miss one. I think with four, there are six different combinations, and only one of them is correct – so you’ve got only about a 17 percent chance of making the correct lineup decision. That means 83 percent of the time, you’ll be leaving some points on the table. Don’t beat yourself up on those. Just keep plugging away, trying to make the correct decisions each week.
Question 3
Would you drop David Wilson for Moreno?
FRANK LEE (PINELLAS PARK, FL)
The Giants have soured on Wilson to a degree. I noticed that they had him back returning kicks again last week. He had the two fumbles in the Dallas game, and they’ve kind of demoted him. They’ve brought in Brandon Jacobs to handle short-yardage rushing, and they’ve got DaRel Scott playing on passing downs. When Andre Brown returns for the second half of the season, he will handle some of that stuff. But Wilson is a lot more talented that all of those guys. This is a rare back who can burst through holes and score touchdowns from long range. If the Giants are going to turn things around and make a run at the NFC East title, it will be with Wilson playing a big role. So I wouldn’t bury him just yet. If I were starting a game this week, I’d probably go with Moreno. But as far as building a team – winning games in Weeks 6-13 – I would stick with Wilson.
Question 4
I have Ray Rice and Trent Richardson at RB, so wasn't planning on needing RB help this early. That being said, I have the opportunity to pickup Knowshon Moreno or James Starks. Which do you think will have the greater opportunity to secure carries on their respective teams? Moreno looked great in Denver, but they seem hesitant to commit to him. Will they continue to give Ball carries? And in Green Bay, will Starks be the forgotten man when Lacy returns?
CHUCK BAILEY (SPRINGBORO, OH)
The Broncos aren’t giving up on Montee Ball. I think they want him in the lineup. At the Giants, Moreno was out there for only a few plays before Ball came in. Ball played most of the first series, which ended with him fumbling into the end zone. And it was a bad fumble – he was carrying the ball loosely and allowed it to be hit out of his hands with a routine hit. So if Tom Coughlin or Bill Belichick was running that team, that would have been it for Ball – he probably wouldn’t have gotten back onto the field until October at the earliest. But the Broncos are being more patient with him. Ball continued to get mixed in, and finished that game with a dozen touches. Moreno is the clear starter there, in my opinion, but it’s also clear (I think) that Ball will get 25-40 percent of the touches for now. And my gut tells me that at some point this year, they’ll need to stick him in the lineup. Ball seems to be way ahead of Ronnie Hillman. Starks, on the other hand, had the nice game against Washington, running for 132 yards. I think he’ll be the change-of-pace guy for Eddie Lacy, getting a Ball-like number of touches. So for me, I think Moreno is a lot more valuable than Starks right now.
Question 5
If McGahee signs with the Browns, where would you put him on the Redrafter listings?
GREGORY DIMPERIO (CANANDAIGUA, NY)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, LeVeon Bell, DeAngelo Williams, Lamar Miller, Maurice Jones-Drew. He’s in there with those guys. About 35th among running backs. Let's hope he can stay healthy. He hasn't done any work with a team in almost a year, and he'll be 32 in a month.
Question 6
Would you drop Danny Amendola and pick up Marlon Brown from Baltimore? I have Julian Edelman, Brandon Marshall, Shorts and Chris Givens. Trying to catch lighting in a bottle with the receiver from Baltimore.
BRUCE SADLER (LAKELAND, FL)
Brown has been OK thus far. Just OK. He dropped a ball in the opener at Denver that would have gone for a nice gain. Against Cleveland, they tried to go over the top to him for what would have been about a 30-yard touchdown down the sideline. I won’t call it a drop, because there was no replay for me to get a close look at it, but some (perhaps many) other receivers would have caught it. “Failed to catch”, is that fair? He bounced back in that game to catch 4 balls, including a touchdown. On your team, no way would he ever start ahead of Marshall or the go-to guy in New England. I wouldn’t start him ahead of Givens right now. How about this: You protect your New England investment by hanging onto Amendola. You release Cecil Shorts III, who’s a very nice young player but is trapped in a horrible situation. The Jaguars are garbage, and in two weeks they’ll bringing back Justin Blackmon (so there will be two receivers there fighting for the meager production).
Question 7
Do I start T. Richardson this week? My other RBs are C. Johnson and D. Richardson, non-ppr.
Paul Davis (MINERAL CITY, OH)
Coach says he’ll be ready. The Colts are going to use him, and it will be more than just a few carries. I don’t expect he’ll catch many passes. I wouldn’t start him over Chris Johnson. I like the way Chris Johnson is running. But I would start him over the other Richardson.
Question 8
Was just offered Trent Richardson for Gore in TD-only league. I believe it's a pretty even trade, but I do like Gore this week against Indy. Any thoughts?
Tod Denison (BAKERSFIELD, CA)
Is your team going to make the playoffs? Maybe look at the those closing weeks. Gore is playing Seattle and at Tampa Bay in Weeks 14-15. Those are poor matchups (Bucs were No. 1 in run defense last year, though I suppose they could implode). He’s at home in Week 16 against Atlanta, which is very good. Richardson has slightly below-average matchups across the board – at Bengals, vs. Texans and at Kansas City. Richardson is a lot younger (Gore is 30). Working in Gore’s favor is the reality that the coaching staff in San Francisco realizes that the Colin Kaepernick deal won’t work if he’s running too much. Quarterback scrambles must be an additional weapon – it’s something best saved for when you need it. They don’t want to turn him into another Randall Cunningham or Michael Vick. They don’t want him running for 900 yards. And that helps Gore. With Kaepernick starting at quarterback, Gore has scored in 9 of 11 games.
Question 9
I've started out 0-2 in a keeper league with Brady, Peterson & Foster. We get to keep 4 players and it’s not looking good this season. I was wondering if you would trade Foster for Lacy? Or I might be able to package Foster and Brady for Kaepernick and Julio Jones. Was wondering what you thoughts were on both scenarios. Was looking long-term instead of this season. Thanks
BRIAN ROWELL (SAINT JOHNS, MI)
Foster and Brady for Kaepernick and Jones. Would love to pull off that deal. Doubtful, though. I mean, Kaepernick might be better than Brady right now – who would do that deal? If that one falls through, then I would pull the trigger on Foster for Lacy. Foster has played his best ball; best to move him while he still has value.
Question 10
In a few Keeper leagues with deep benches, any players, 'under the radar' or other that you view as worth 'stash' spots on rosters, guys you think could develop in 1-3 years?
DAVID DREIDEL (YORKVILLE, NY)
I like tight ends Ladarius Green (San Diego) and Luke Willson (Seattle). Jordan Reed of Washington might come in ahead of those guys (certainly Willson) but Reed is already playing and scored at Lambeau, so tough to call him ‘under the radar’. A few other names (and I expect you’ve heard all of them): Josh Boyce (New England), Khiry Robinson (Saints). You said ‘under the radar’, so I’m leaving out guys drafted in the first three rounds.
Question 11
In our version of PPR (.5) system the calculated fantasy points for Reggie Bush and J. Bell are even at 155. I have them both on my team. Is the trade value higher for Bush and Bell since the risk is lower because I will be guaranteed a starter? Does the fantasy point projection of 155 include the split time due to likely missed games for Bush? Bush and Bell together should be of greater value together then their value separately. Hard to explain my thinking, sorry.
Barret Glasnapp (UNDERWOOD, IA)
Agreed. They’re more valuable as a pair. When they’re both healthy, I consider Bush to be slightly more valuable in most formats. Bell slightly more valuable in a TD-only format. If and when Bush gets hurt, I think Bell as a starter will be better than either of them. He’s a good back: runs hard, catches passes.
Question 12
Thanks Ian for a great product! Rostering question in a large (12 team with 20 players rostered) and competitive league. I am sitting on a 6 RBs and 6 WRs, with the 6th men being Donald Brown and Alshon Jeffery. Would I be better off stashing an injured player – both Vereen and Andre Brown are available? Or grabbing a backup in case of injury – Turbin and Shonn Greene are sitting there? If it matters, I do have #1 waiver priority.
MARK CLURE (MOUNT SHASTA, CA)
Donald Brown has no value now (following the Richardson trade). Jeffery, though, I think is good enough to merit a roster spot. I will be interested to see how he performs this week if Ike Taylor plays as well against Brandon Marshall as he did against A.J. Green on Monday night. If Jeffery doesn’t do much in the next three or so weeks, then you can consider moving on one of those other options. (And this really depends on needs, scoring system and roster setup. If you’re in a PPR league, Vereen would make a lot of sense as a running back who could help in the postseason.)