ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly from training camp to Super Bowl with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them: Thursday Night Football: Start, sit, or no impact on your decisions?
SCOTT SACHS
I try to stay focused on matchups. However, it is a general belief that players fire up when they are in a spotlight game--Thu/Sun/Mon Night appearances may give a player an edge. So, if it's a 50-50 choice on choosing a player, I'll give the edge to the player in spotlight.
Sachs runs Perfect Season Fantasy Football, offering LIVE Talk/Text/Email consulting & advice. Winner of Fantasy Football Index's 2012 Experts Poll & 2011 Mock Auction League, Scott can be found at http://perfectseasonffb.com/.
MIKE CLAY
Participation on Thursday Night Football is not a huge factor for me when compiling rankings, but recent research has shown that its worth considering for certain positions. Quarterbacks, for example, see a noticeable dip in production. Quarterbacks playing on the short week have a pathetic 42:42 TD:INT ratio since the start of the 2012 season. In all other games, quarterbacks average 1.7 touchdowns for every interception. Although Yards-Per-Attempt is actually higher on TNF, completion percentage is way down and sacks and drops are up. My study did show, however, that playing on a short week had only a minimal impact on rushing numbers.
Clay is the Managing Editor and Director at Pro Football Focus Fantasy. It's there that he created a batch of advanced statistics, most notably average depth of target (aDOT). Mike also works as an NFL writer at Rotoworld.com and has contributed at PhiladelphiaEagles.com and for Athlon Sports.
DAVID DOREY
It has no real bearing on my starting decisions but fortunately I have not come into a situation where I owned a Thursday night player who was questionable to play and have much less practice and healing time to go by. Personally, I dislike Thursday night games but not for fantasy reasons.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
BOB HENRY
The main considerations I give to Thursday night games are similar to those played on Sundays: Weather, injuries, trends and coaching/personnel decisions. All things being equal, I'll readily admit to being leery of players in these games as they tend to be simpler game plans, resulting in fewer impact games from a fantasy perspective. Beyond that, my main focus is on the health of a player given the short week and whether they might not play a full game. For instance, teams often give more running backs playing time in these games, especially if any one of them is less than 100%. Furthermore, be wary of running backs in games BEFORE a Thursday night game. A coach might give their stud running back a lighter workload knowing they need him to be healthy for the Thursday night game with less time to recover. Otherwise, I would not avoid players on Thursday night, but I do consider all factors to make the most informed decisions for waivers and lineups possible, but that's what we do in fantasy football so owners should be doing that anyway.
Henry is a senior writer/analyst for Footballguys.com since 2004 and an industry veteran of 17+ years. His responsibilities at Footballguys include leading the annual training camp reports, providing detailed preseason and year-forward projections during the season that help drive the Footballguys suite of mobile, web and desktop draft and in-season management tools, along with managing the depth charts and his popular weekly Sleepers column during the season.
MIKE NAZAREK
It makes no difference if a player plays on Thursday night to me. I analyze their potential for the week and start my best players regardless. I firmly believe that is the smart approach for all fantasy players to take.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers a preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a multi-use fantasy drafting program including auction values, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is a four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached via email at miken@ffmastermind.com.
ALAN SATTERLEE
I tend to avoid guys on Thursday night (certainly on marginal calls). Sure you play your true studs, but more often than not Thursday guys tend to disappoint. Without doing a ton of statistical analysis, I am certain scoring is lower on Thursdays (sure does feel that way), with Week 1 being an exception to that rule of thumb. Players are banged up from the week before and they don't have enough time to install their game plans. Also, psychologically from fantasy football, it just stinks to have crap games on Thursdays and feel like your week is already shot if they don't do anything. I am as big of a fan of football as there is out there and as big of a fantasy football junkie as you will you find but I cannot stand Thursday Night Football.
Satterlee is Co-Owner and Chief Editor/COO of FantasyFootballWarehouse.com. FFW features comprehensive profiles for all the major 2013 skill-position rookies, its Trading Spaces series, the team Deep Dives, the Speed Bump competition plus draft strategies, rankings, projections and more. FFW runs in tandem with its dynasty site DynastyFootballWarehouse.com.
IAN ALLAN
I just looked into this, as part of my preview of the Bears-Giants game for our newsletter product. Looking at the scores of all the Thursday games of the last seven years, it's my belief that the issue here isn't shortened preparation time. The key dynamic here is divisional games. If you look at games inside the division played on Thursday, there's been an average of only 39.5 points scored. That's way below average. But if you look at games featuring teams from different divisions, it jumps up to 48.1 points -- way above average. So for me, the key factor is who's playing. If it's the Bears-Giants, like tonight, I expect lots of points. The next two weeks we'll see Seahawks at Arizona and Panthers at Tampa Bay. I think both of those games will be low scoring.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at www.fantasyindex.com.
JAKE CIELY
While I loathe Thursday night football - I could give you the reasons, but you'd end up with a War and Peace novel - I don't avoid or target players for Thursday night. The only way I'm influenced is if I am trying to decide a coin-flip situation. If so, then I'll lean to the player not in the Thursday night game. We've seen it too many times. The short week leads to lackluster offensive outputs, miscues or even injuries. I won't sit a Matt Forte for a DeAngelo Williams, but I'd certainly bench Hakeem Nicks for a James Jones or Steve Smith this week as an example. Thursday night inherently carries more risk, and I'll avoid it when I can... and the Giants in general when facing a defense such as the Bears this week.
Ciely oversees the fantasy football staff for Football.com and assists with social media, including Twitter and Facebook. He is an award-nominated fantasy writer with over 15 years of experience. He started his fantasy sports career with his own blog and eventually became the Managing Editor at RotoExperts.com. He’s also a poker enthusiast, which is why you see many poker references, including his nickname “All In Kid.” Jake has also introduced new metrics to fantasy football analysis.
MICAH JAMES
I remember when I thought a Thursday night game every week was a good idea, but from a fantasy point of view I'm not so sure that it is. More often than not, the Thursday night games leave us disappointed and I tend to avoid players from the game if I can at all avoid it. I won't go so far as to bench one of my key players - I'm playing Matt Forte and Victor Cruz this week - but if I am faced with a borderline call I will almost invariably go with the player who gets a typical week's rest, rather than the short turnaround. Plus...what's worse than playing a guy (or two) on Thursday night and staring at a goose-egg in your lineup the next three days? Yuck.
Micah James, the FFMagicMan, won the FSTA Accuracy Rankings Challenge in 2012, finishing first out of 61 expert entries with an unprecedented Top-9 finish in each of the four measured skill positions. You can frequently hear him on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio and every week on his fantasy football podcast, Trick Plays, with co-host Coach Dennis Esser. Find James on Twitter and on Facebook, and check his website every week for the latest up-to-date player rankings.
SAM HENDRICKS
First what should you expect? Lower scoring and less fantasy points (FP). Generally, the TNF is a lower scoring affair (exceptions are Thanksgiving games and the Week 1 Kickoff game where teams have a ton of time to prepare). Defenses seem to benefit the most from the short turnaround time (3-4 days) between these affairs, probably because of the lower scoring. QBs have a noticeable drop in FPs. WRs take a hit too as you would expect if the one throwing them the ball suffers. Oddly enough TEs seem to excel in Thursday games, but I think this comes from QBs who have less time to prepare and thus dump it off more. RBs tend to be about the same. Regardless of the rules of thumb above, if you have a stud QB don't even think about benching him for a TNF game; instead temper your expectations and expect more from his TE. Bottom line: If you have a Thursday night player about equal with another playing on Sunday, avoid the TNF player.
Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at ExtraPointPress.com, at all major bookstores, and at Amazon and BN.com. He is a 20-plus year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). Follow him at his web site, www.ffguidebook.com.
TIM HEANEY
The short turnaround from the previous week and therefore rushed practice timetable has contributed to the frequent sloppiness of Thursday Night Football. This can create positive and negative courses for fantasy football owners. Injured players are less likely to be at full strength, so depending on the severity of the malady (notably if it's a new entry on the Wednesday practice report), lower expectations for those assets. If an offensive player is facing an injury-battered or in some way hindered defense, I'd be more inclined to start him because there's less time for the vulnerable opponent to adjust. In that same vein, if a team has significantly altered its offense or defense, and its first trial will come on Thursday, then that could sway production.
Since 1996, KFFL.com has been combining its award-winning news service with fantasy analysis. KFFL.com offers services including daily news, draft guides and in-season advice. Completely free, KFFL.com is your destination for fantasy baseball, football and NASCAR cheat sheets, tips, sleepers and much more. KFFL.com has won more than a dozen expert championships and was listed as "One of the 10 essential sports-related online destinations for fans, athletes and fantasy owners" by Time.com. KFFL.com is property of USA TODAY Sports Media Group.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI
Games played on Thursday (with no rest beforehand) show an under trend historically, so I use that as a tiebreaker. If I have two similar players, I generally go away from the Thursday guy. But it's not a strong part of my weekly planning. One advantage you do have with early players - it quickly defines your week, gives you a better idea of what you might need on Sunday and Monday. But that's a minor consideration, too.
Pianowski has been playing fantasy football for 20 years and writing about it for 17. He joined Yahoo! Sports in 2008 and has been blogging 24/7 on RotoArcade.com ever since.
PRETZEL MAY
I don't think it factors that much into my decisions too much. You play your studs. Then you look at matchups. The only bearing it really has on my lineup is it forces my hand earlier sometimes on who to put in. If you have a guy that might not play on Sunday and your replacement is playing on a Thursday you are almost forced to play the guy on Thursday.
The May brothers have more than 20 years of combined fantasy football experience and are the co-founders of FantasyDraftMaster.com. In FDM's first 3 years as part of the Fantasy Index Experts Poll, they have amassed 1st- and 2nd-place finishes. The cornerstone of FantasyDraftMaster.com is the UberRank which is a revolutionary approach to the traditional fantasy football cheat sheet. FantasyDraftMaster.com also offers insightful and humorous commentary and recommendations on waiver wire pickups, lineup submissions and weekly pick em' pools. For more info on FDM, visit the web site or email info@fantasydraftmaster.com.
ANDY RICHARDSON
I try to avoid using marginal players in this game, mostly because I hate to start out the week with some low number in the box score. If I think a guy has a really good matchup, or he's a really good player, I play him -- you wouldn't sit down Brandon Marshall in the game tonight, for example. But if I've got two similar, mediocre options and have to use one of them, I'll avoid the guy playing on Thursday. Ian has convinced me the numbers don't support it, but I can't shake the feeling that there's a greater chance of these games being low-scoring, for at least one team -- it showing up simply not being well-prepared or whatever. Frankly I might leave a so-so guy out of my lineup for the simple reason that I don't want to have to be terribly interested in these games, since a whole lot of them have been bad, and I'd rather go to bed at halftime without worrying about fourth-quarter stats.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for 12 years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.