The Packers will be without their quarterback for 4-6 weeks. Ian Allan weighs in with how that will change which teams wind up making the playoffs.
We’re at the halfway point of the season, let me get the crystal ball out and see how this thing likely will play out. We’ve got half the games already in hand, and I’ll take a stab at picking a winner in all of the remaining games.
Blending those two, and we get an idea of how things should look at the end of Week 17.
You know the drill. For each of the remaining games, I divide the win between the two teams. If a team looks certain to win, I give it almost all that game. Tennessee gets 95 percent of a win for its home game against Jacksonville this week. For the pick-‘em type games (like Steelers-Bills or Bears-Lions) those wins tend to get divided in half.
When I follow that process for every team and every game, I get the Seahawks and Broncos holding home-field advantage at the end of the regular season.
Kansas City and 49ers are close behind those teams, but they may wind up being wild-card – opening the postseason on the road against division champions with lesser records.
Instead, I’ve got the Patriots and Saints finishing as the No. 2 seeds in each conference.
Other projected division winners: Colts, Bengals, Lions, Cowboys.
Wild-card teams: Kansas City, San Francisco, Bears and Titans.
So if it plays out the way I see it, the playoffs will open with Kansas City at Cincinnati, Tennessee at Indianapolis, San Francisco at Dallas, and Chicago at Detroit.
Best teams that won’t make the playoffs: Carolina, Green Bay and Jets are all in the mix to go 9-7. San Diego, Philadelphia and Miami; I’ve got those teams about 8-8.
First five pickers in the draft: Jaguars, Bucs, Vikings, Falconss, Rams.
As usual, let me know where you think I’m going wrong.
| Projected win-loss records | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | Pct |
| Seattle | 13.1 | 2.9 | .819 |
| Denver | 12.6 | 3.5 | .784 |
| Kansas City | 12.4 | 3.7 | .772 |
| San Francisco | 11.9 | 4.2 | .741 |
| New England | 11.4 | 4.6 | .713 |
| New Orleans | 11.1 | 4.9 | .694 |
| Indianapolis | 10.9 | 5.1 | .683 |
| Cincinnati | 10.4 | 5.6 | .650 |
| Detroit | 10.2 | 5.8 | .638 |
| Chicago | 9.6 | 6.4 | .600 |
| Carolina | 9.0 | 7.0 | .563 |
| Tennessee | 8.8 | 7.2 | .550 |
| Green Bay | 8.7 | 7.3 | .544 |
| NY Jets | 8.7 | 7.3 | .544 |
| Dallas | 8.6 | 7.5 | .534 |
| San Diego | 8.1 | 8.0 | .503 |
| Philadelphia | 8.0 | 8.1 | .497 |
| Miami | 7.7 | 8.4 | .478 |
| Arizona | 7.5 | 8.5 | .469 |
| Baltimore | 7.4 | 8.6 | .463 |
| Washington | 7.3 | 8.8 | .453 |
| Buffalo | 6.9 | 9.2 | .428 |
| Cleveland | 6.6 | 9.4 | .413 |
| Houston | 6.0 | 10.0 | .375 |
| NY Giants | 5.9 | 10.2 | .366 |
| Pittsburgh | 5.7 | 10.4 | .353 |
| Oakland | 5.2 | 10.8 | .325 |
| St. Louis | 4.7 | 11.4 | .291 |
| Atlanta | 4.4 | 11.6 | .275 |
| Minnesota | 3.5 | 12.5 | .219 |
| Tampa Bay | 2.6 | 13.4 | .163 |
| Jacksonville | 1.7 | 14.3 | .105 |
WEEK-BY-WEEK FORECAST
Week 10
Buffalo 45% at Pittsburgh 55%
Carolina 15% at San Francisco 85%
Cincinnati 40% at Baltimore 60%
Dallas 20% at New Orleans 80%
Denver 60% at San Diego 40%
Detroit 45% at Chicago 55%
Houston 40% at Arizona 60%
Jacksonville 5% at Tennessee 95%
Miami 55% at Tampa Bay 45%
Oakland 35% at NY Giants 65%
Philadelphia 60% at Green Bay 40%
Seattle 65% at Atlanta 35%
St. Louis 15% at Indianapolis 85%
Washington 55% at Minnesota 45%
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Week 11
Arizona 65% at Jacksonville 35%
Atlanta 35% at Tampa Bay 65%
Baltimore 40% at Chicago 60%
Cleveland 15% at Cincinnati 85%
Detroit 45% at Pittsburgh 55%
Green Bay 30% at NY Giants 70%
Indianapolis 45% at Tennessee 55%
Kansas City 20% at Denver 80%
Minnesota 5% at Seattle 95%
New England 50% at Carolina 50%
NY Jets 40% at Buffalo 60%
Oakland 35% at Houston 65%
San Diego 50% at Miami 50%
San Francisco 50% at New Orleans 50%
Washington 40% at Philadelphia 60%
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Week 12
Carolina 45% at Miami 55%
Chicago 65% at St. Louis 35%
Dallas 45% at NY Giants 55%
Denver 45% at New England 55%
Indianapolis 55% at Arizona 45%
Jacksonville 20% at Houston 80%
Minnesota 45% at Green Bay 55%
New Orleans 65% at Atlanta 35%
NY Jets 35% at Baltimore 65%
Pittsburgh 45% at Cleveland 55%
San Diego 40% at Kansas City 60%
San Francisco 55% at Washington 45%
Tampa Bay 10% at Detroit 90%
Tennessee 60% at Oakland 40%
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Week 13
Arizona 30% at Philadelphia 70%
Atlanta 20% at Buffalo 80%
Chicago 60% at Minnesota 40%
Cincinnati 50% at San Diego 50%
Denver 50% at Kansas City 50%
Green Bay 15% at Detroit 85%
Jacksonville 20% at Cleveland 80%
Miami 30% at NY Jets 70%
New England 60% at Houston 40%
New Orleans 30% at Seattle 70%
NY Giants 40% at Washington 60%
Oakland 20% at Dallas 80%
Pittsburgh 25% at Baltimore 75%
St. Louis 5% at San Francisco 95%
Tampa Bay 20% at Carolina 80%
Tennessee 40% at Indianapolis 60%
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Week 14
Atlanta 30% at Green Bay 70%
Buffalo 50% at Tampa Bay 50%
Carolina 20% at New Orleans 80%
Cleveland 10% at New England 90%
Dallas 40% at Chicago 60%
Detroit 45% at Philadelphia 55%
Houston 70% at Jacksonville 30%
Indianapolis 45% at Cincinnati 55%
Kansas City 40% at Washington 60%
Miami 40% at Pittsburgh 60%
Minnesota 20% at Baltimore 80%
NY Giants 30% at San Diego 70%
Oakland 20% at NY Jets 80%
Seattle 35% at San Francisco 65%
St. Louis 20% at Arizona 80%
Tennessee 15% at Denver 85%
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Week 15
Arizona 25% at Tennessee 75%
Baltimore 25% at Detroit 75%
Buffalo 70% at Jacksonville 30%
Chicago 60% at Cleveland 40%
Cincinnati 55% at Pittsburgh 45%
Green Bay 30% at Dallas 70%
Houston 35% at Indianapolis 65%
Kansas City 65% at Oakland 35%
New England 60% at Miami 40%
New Orleans 75% at St. Louis 25%
NY Jets 30% at Carolina 70%
Philadelphia 55% at Minnesota 45%
San Diego 20% at Denver 80%
San Francisco 80% at Tampa Bay 20%
Seattle 55% at NY Giants 45%
Washington 60% at Atlanta 40%
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Week 16
Arizona 5% at Seattle 95%
Atlanta 5% at San Francisco 95%
Chicago 45% at Philadelphia 55%
Cleveland 25% at NY Jets 75%
Dallas 40% at Washington 60%
Denver 65% at Houston 35%
Indianapolis 40% at Kansas City 60%
Miami 35% at Buffalo 65%
Minnesota 10% at Cincinnati 90%
New England 40% at Baltimore 60%
New Orleans 40% at Carolina 60%
NY Giants 25% at Detroit 75%
Oakland 25% at San Diego 75%
Pittsburgh 15% at Green Bay 85%
Tampa Bay 40% at St. Louis 60%
Tennessee 75% at Jacksonville 25%
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Week 17
Baltimore 35% at Cincinnati 65%
Buffalo 15% at New England 85%
Carolina 60% at Atlanta 40%
Cleveland 35% at Pittsburgh 65%
Denver 90% at Oakland 10%
Detroit 60% at Minnesota 40%
Green Bay 45% at Chicago 55%
Houston 35% at Tennessee 65%
Jacksonville 3% at Indianapolis 97%
Kansas City 40% at San Diego 60%
NY Jets 40% at Miami 60%
Philadelphia 40% at Dallas 60%
San Francisco 60% at Arizona 40%
St. Louis 5% at Seattle 95%
Tampa Bay 10% at New Orleans 90%
Washington 45% at NY Giants 55%