Denver will lose its next two games but still win the AFC West. Four teams in the NFC will finish 9-7, but only one will get in the playoffs. But an 8-8 team will get the final wild card on the AFC side. Ian Allan lays out how the final six weeks will unfold.
What I'm doing here is forecasting each of the remaining 92 regular-season game. If a game looks like a tossup kind of deal (like Tennessee and Oakland on Sunday) you just give each of the teams half of a win. If a team looks 90 percent to win, you give it almost all of the win for that game.
Simple enough.
Using that process, Seattle and Denver are your No. 1 seeds, with New Orleans and New England also getting first-round playoff byes.
Detroit and Philadelphia should be the other NFC division winners, but they could finish with lesser records than the wild cards (Carolina and San Francisco). On my card, I've got the NFC playoffs starting with San Francisco at Detroit and 11-5 Carolina at 9-7 Philadelphia.
Three other NFC teams, I think, have a good chance to finish 9-7 -- Chicago, Arizona and Green Bay. But somebody's got to win the NFC East, so there's no tiebreaker deal to sort through there. In the NFC, you must get to 10 wins to the playoffs (and it's possible that the final wild-card spot will be be a tie between a couple of 10-6 clubs).
On the AFC side, it's my expectation that Denver will lose on Sunday at Foxborough. And I think it probably will lose the next week at Arrowhead as well. So that division is still very much wide open. But Kansas City has plenty of difficult games left on its schedule as well, so I'm thinking it will be the team that has to settle for the wild-card spot.
I've got Indianapolis and Cincinnati as the other AFC division winners, in that order.
Then you get down to the mess that is the race for the final wild card spot in the AFC. Currently, the Jets and Dolphins are both 5-5, and a bunch of teams have 4 wins, right behind. One of those teams makes the playoffs.
When I do the win probability thing, the Jets project to have the best chance to finish the year at 8-8, followed by the Ravens. But I'm very confident Baltimore will beat New York this weekend, which has tiebreaker ramifications. At this time next week, therefore, I think we'll all agree Baltimore will be the clear favorite to be the team that finishes 8-8 and wins that final playoff spot.
Dolphins, Steelers, Chargers, Titans, Bills and maybe Browns. I don't think any of those teams are getting past seven wins, so they're all probably coming up about a game short of the postseason.
Playoffs on the AFC should open with Baltimore playing at Indianapolis and Kansas City playing at Cincinnati.
As usual, let me know where you think I've got it wrong.
| PROJECTED WIN-LOSS RECORDS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | Pct |
| Seattle | 13.4 | 2.6 | .838 |
| Denver | 13.4 | 2.7 | .834 |
| Kansas City | 12.6 | 3.4 | .788 |
| New Orleans | 11.9 | 4.2 | .741 |
| New England | 11.3 | 4.7 | .706 |
| Carolina | 11.2 | 4.9 | .697 |
| Indianapolis | 10.8 | 5.2 | .675 |
| San Francisco | 10.2 | 5.8 | .638 |
| Detroit | 10.1 | 5.9 | .631 |
| Cincinnati | 10.0 | 6.0 | .625 |
| Chicago | 9.4 | 6.6 | .588 |
| Arizona | 8.8 | 7.2 | .550 |
| Philadelphia | 8.8 | 7.3 | .547 |
| Green Bay | 8.6 | 7.5 | .534 |
| Dallas | 8.1 | 7.9 | .506 |
| NY Jets | 7.9 | 8.1 | .494 |
| Baltimore | 7.7 | 8.4 | .478 |
| Miami | 7.2 | 8.9 | .447 |
| NY Giants | 7.0 | 9.0 | .438 |
| Pittsburgh | 6.8 | 9.2 | .425 |
| San Diego | 6.8 | 9.3 | .422 |
| Tennessee | 6.8 | 9.3 | .422 |
| Buffalo | 6.7 | 9.3 | .419 |
| Cleveland | 6.5 | 9.6 | .403 |
| Washington | 6.0 | 10.1 | .372 |
| St. Louis | 5.8 | 10.3 | .359 |
| Oakland | 5.5 | 10.5 | .344 |
| Houston | 4.4 | 11.7 | .272 |
| Minnesota | 3.9 | 12.2 | .241 |
| Tampa Bay | 3.4 | 12.6 | .213 |
| Atlanta | 3.1 | 12.9 | .194 |
| Jacksonville | 2.6 | 13.4 | .163 |
WIN PROBABILITIES FOR REMAINING GAMES
<br>
Week 12
Tampa Bay 5% at Detroit 95%
NY Jets 15% at Baltimore 85%
Jacksonville 15% at Houston 85%
San Diego 25% at Kansas City 75%
Minnesota 40% at Green Bay 60%
Dallas 40% at NY Giants 60%
Indianapolis 45% at Arizona 55%
Pittsburgh 45% at Cleveland 55%
Denver 45% at New England 55%
Tennessee 50% at Oakland 50%
Chicago 55% at St. Louis 45%
San Francisco 55% at Washington 45%
Carolina 60% at Miami 40%
New Orleans 80% at Atlanta 20%
<br>
Week 13
Tampa Bay 15% at Carolina 85%
St. Louis 15% at San Francisco 85%
Atlanta 20% at Buffalo 80%
Jacksonville 20% at Cleveland 80%
Oakland 20% at Dallas 80%
Tennessee 25% at Indianapolis 75%
Pittsburgh 30% at Baltimore 70%
Green Bay 30% at Detroit 70%
Miami 30% at NY Jets 70%
New Orleans 35% at Seattle 65%
Arizona 40% at Philadelphia 60%
Denver 45% at Kansas City 55%
Cincinnati 45% at San Diego 55%
NY Giants 50% at Washington 50%
Chicago 60% at Minnesota 40%
New England 75% at Houston 25%
<br>
Week 14
Atlanta 5% at Green Bay 95%
Cleveland 5% at New England 95%
Tennessee 10% at Denver 90%
Minnesota 15% at Baltimore 85%
St. Louis 20% at Arizona 80%
Oakland 20% at NY Jets 80%
Miami 30% at Pittsburgh 70%
Dallas 35% at Chicago 65%
Carolina 40% at New Orleans 60%
Seattle 40% at San Francisco 60%
Indianapolis 45% at Cincinnati 55%
Detroit 45% at Philadelphia 55%
NY Giants 45% at San Diego 55%
Buffalo 45% at Tampa Bay 55%
Kansas City 45% at Washington 55%
Houston 60% at Jacksonville 40%
<br>
Week 15
NY Jets 10% at Carolina 90%
San Diego 10% at Denver 90%
Houston 20% at Indianapolis 80%
Baltimore 30% at Detroit 70%
Arizona 40% at Tennessee 60%
Green Bay 45% at Dallas 55%
Cincinnati 50% at Pittsburgh 50%
Seattle 55% at NY Giants 45%
Washington 60% at Atlanta 40%
Chicago 60% at Cleveland 40%
Philadelphia 60% at Minnesota 40%
Buffalo 65% at Jacksonville 35%
New England 70% at Miami 30%
New Orleans 75% at St. Louis 25%
Kansas City 80% at Oakland 20%
San Francisco 80% at Tampa Bay 20%
<br>
Week 16
Atlanta 5% at San Francisco 95%
Minnesota 10% at Cincinnati 90%
Arizona 10% at Seattle 90%
Pittsburgh 20% at Green Bay 80%
Oakland 25% at San Diego 75%
Miami 30% at Buffalo 70%
NY Giants 30% at Detroit 70%
Cleveland 30% at NY Jets 70%
New Orleans 40% at Carolina 60%
Indianapolis 40% at Kansas City 60%
Tampa Bay 40% at St. Louis 60%
New England 45% at Baltimore 55%
Chicago 45% at Philadelphia 55%
Dallas 45% at Washington 55%
Tennessee 55% at Jacksonville 45%
Denver 80% at Houston 20%
<br>
Week 17
Jacksonville 5% at Indianapolis 95%
Tampa Bay 5% at New Orleans 95%
Buffalo 10% at New England 90%
St. Louis 10% at Seattle 90%
Houston 25% at Tennessee 75%
Washington 30% at NY Giants 70%
Cleveland 35% at Pittsburgh 65%
Baltimore 40% at Cincinnati 60%
San Francisco 45% at Arizona 55%
Green Bay 45% at Chicago 55%
Philadelphia 45% at Dallas 55%
NY Jets 45% at Miami 55%
Kansas City 45% at San Diego 55%
Detroit 60% at Minnesota 40%
Carolina 80% at Atlanta 20%
Denver 85% at Oakland 15%