It’s been said that defenses win championships. But how much attention should we pay to them in fantasy leagues? When a defenses start scoring touchdowns every week, is it possible to ride that wave? (Or is this just luck?)
We seemingly have one of those defenses this year. Kansas City has scored 7 TDs on returns of turnovers and kicks. Chicago has 5 TDs, and a quartet of teams have 4 TDs each – Dallas, Denver, and the two teams that are playing tonight (Washington and Minnesota).
Let me get out some of the numbers, and we’ll see if we can figure anything out. I’ve got the week-by-week data available since 2000 – so 446 teams competing in 14 different seasons. That’s 13 full seasons, plus the first half of this season.
In those 6,880 games, there were 1,542 touchdowns scored on defensive and special teams plays. These are my hand-crafted numbers, so I might be missing a touchdown here and there. And I think that total will include a few fake field goals, which are tough to score. Also note that the game is changing constantly (with rules on kickoffs and whatnot) but in general, teams are scoring a touchdown on a defensive or special teams play about 22 percent of the time – about once every 4-5 games.
Of those 446 teams, only a small subset scored 5 or more touchdowns in the first half of the season. Here's a glance at how those teams fared in the second half of the season -- their final eight games versus their first eight games.
| TOUCHDOWN SCORING DEFENSES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | 1-8 | 9-16 |
| 2012 | Chicago | 8 | 2 |
| 2003 | Kansas City | 7 | 0 |
| 2009 | New Orleans | 7 | 2 |
| 2010 | Arizona | 7 | 3 |
| 2002 | Tampa Bay | 6 | 0 |
| 2004 | Baltimore | 6 | 3 |
| 2008 | Green Bay | 6 | 3 |
| 2000 | Denver | 5 | 4 |
| 2001 | San Diego | 5 | 1 |
| 2002 | Oakland | 5 | 1 |
| 2006 | Minnesota | 5 | 1 |
| 2008 | Chicago | 5 | 1 |
| 2010 | New England | 5 | 3 |
| 2013 | Kansas City | 5 | |
| 2013 | Chicago | 5 | |
Note that only seven defenses have scored 6 or more touchdowns in the first half of the season. Kansas City seems to kind of belong in that group. It scored 5 in its first five games (as it’s listed), then added another pair at Buffalo on Sunday in its ninth game. Of the this tiny subset (the best of the way), almost half (3 of 7) scored 3 TDs in their final eight games (which is very good). Of the remaining four teams, two scored 2 TDs (slightly above average) and two didn’t score at all.
If you drop down and look at teams that scored 5 TDs in the first half of the season, the track record is lousy. 2010 New England kept it going, with 3 TDs in its final eight, but the other four teams all scored just one.
Similarly, the track record isn’t particularly good for defenses scoring 4 TDs in the first half of the season. This is the group that is being joined this year by Dallas, Denver, Minnesota and Washington. There are 38 of these teams since 2000, and over half of them (21) scored either 0 or 1 TD in the second half of the season. Thirteen of these teams (13 of 38 – about a third) scored 3-5 TDs, which is above-average.
There’s also, of course, the other end of the scale – teams that didn’t score any touchdowns in the first half of the season. Is there any hope for these kind of teams to turn things around.
Since 2000, there have been 73 of these teams. Eleven of them moved up to the penthouse, with 4-5 TDs. Another eight were above-average (3 TDs in eight games). But 41 of those 73 teams kept the futility going, with either 0 or 1 TD in the second half of the season.
This, of course, is not an overly scientific study. I’m looking at just touchdowns, and I’m mixing defensive and special teams scores. With the case the current Kansas City defense, you also have to figure in that it has the league’s best pass rush right now. But the general vibe I get looking at the numbers is that there’s plenty of chance/luck when it comes to getting these kind of touchdowns.
--Ian Allan