Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. Special playoff edition. Breaking down the Week 15 man crush on Colby Parkinson. Strength of schedule for the playoffs. Splitting hairs on lineup decisions. Defenses to consider in Week 16. And more.
Question 1
Rankings are high on Colby Parkinson this week and ros. Brenton strange quite a bit lower. Other sites have the opposite. Can you share why?
Deric Treon (Orangevale, CA)
I'm a Parkinson fan. Matthew Stafford has thrown 35 touchdowns, and 10 have been caught by tight ends. They're using lots of 12- and 13-personnel right now, and Parkinson is the guy who's getting the looks. He's caught touchdowns in four of his last five games. So I've got him carrying an 18 percent touchdown share grade right now. (About every 5 times they throw a touchdown, he'll catch one). I consider this to be on the conservative side (10 of 35 touchdowns = 28.6 percent). I've got Davis Allen currently at 5 percent and Terrance Ferguson at 4 percent. That team also has Tyler Higbee, but he's on IR right now. That all looks promising, and I am confident the Rams will be moving the ball and scoring against the Lions. Stafford currently is averaging 2.7 TD passes per game, and I think he'll be throwing 3 this week. When he hits that 3, I think that meas Parkinson will have a real nice chance of scoring. The workload in general isn't as impressive, but he'll catch a few balls -- 4, 2, 4, 4 and 3 receptions in his last five games. I've got him at 3.6 receptions, which is about exactly what he's averaged over the last 3 games.
Question 2
Can you do a strength of schedule for weeks 15 to 17 for playoffs?
Craig Leedy (Sacramento, CA)
There are three teams whose next three games are against defenses currently allowing an average of over 26 points per game – Vikings, Dolphins, Commanders. Those are the teams with the easiest schedule. There are six teams whose next three are against teams allowing 21 points per week or fewer, and all have notable offenses – Colts, Broncos, Seahawks, Bills, Bears and Lions. In the chart below, the final column shows the average points allowed by the next three opponents. The other three columns shows where the opponents rank in Weeks 15-17 (with 1 being easiest and 32 being hardest).
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Wks 15-17) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 15 | 16 | 17 | Avg |
| Minnesota | 2 | 3 | 15 | 27.1 |
| Miami | 14 | 1 | 10 | 26.9 |
| Washington | 3 | 24 | 2 | 26.3 |
| New Orleans | 17 | 6 | 4 | 25.7 |
| San Francisco | 4 | 20 | 8 | 25.3 |
| Philadelphia | 9 | 5 | 19 | 25.1 |
| NY Giants | 5 | 21 | 9 | 24.8 |
| Cincinnati | 11 | 18 | 7 | 24.7 |
| New England | 19 | 11 | 6 | 24.7 |
| Houston | 7 | 9 | 23 | 24.4 |
| Cleveland | 8 | 19 | 14 | 24.3 |
| Arizona | 32 | 12 | 1 | 23.9 |
| Dallas | 21 | 23 | 5 | 23.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 12 | 17 | 18 | 23.2 |
| Baltimore | 1 | 28 | 27 | 23.1 |
| Pittsburgh | 18 | 15 | 16 | 23.1 |
| Atlanta | 10 | 7 | 30 | 23.1 |
| Green Bay | 29 | 8 | 11 | 23.1 |
| Jacksonville | 6 | 29 | 20 | 22.3 |
| Carolina | 13 | 10 | 31 | 22.1 |
| Kansas City | 23 | 4 | 29 | 22.1 |
| LA Chargers | 26 | 2 | 32 | 21.7 |
| Las Vegas | 24 | 32 | 3 | 21.7 |
| LA Rams | 15 | 31 | 12 | 21.6 |
| Tennessee | 25 | 26 | 13 | 21.4 |
| NY Jets | 22 | 13 | 28 | 21.2 |
| Detroit | 30 | 14 | 21 | 21.0 |
| Chicago | 16 | 27 | 25 | 20.9 |
| Buffalo | 28 | 16 | 24 | 20.8 |
| Seattle | 20 | 30 | 17 | 20.7 |
| Denver | 27 | 22 | 26 | 19.8 |
| Indianapolis | 31 | 25 | 22 | 19.7 |
Question 3
In a full point PP,I’m in a bind with Lamb’s status and Egbuka being my fill in….who plays tonight. If I sacrifice Egbuka in hopes of Lamb playing my backup would be grabbing someone like Metchie or Jayden Higgins. On the RB side of things my 3 go-tos have been Gibbs, Jacobs, and Bucky. Based on matchups this week do I dare bench Jacobs or Bucky in favor of Woody Marks (who has a nice matchup)?
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
Lamb says he’s feeling good – that the three extra days of rest should allow him to complete the concussion protocol. He was a full participant at practice today. I would save a starting spot for him. At running back, it’s looking like Josh Jacobs will solve your problem for you. He’s going in to have his knee looked at. It’s not right, so I think you’ll have to dip into the Woody Marks fall-back plan.
Question 4
What are they projected top 10 defenses for week 16? For those of us that have a bye this week and want to look ahead.
Grant Markgraf (Elmhurst, IL)
Houston will be No. 1 – home against the Raiders. Denver will be up there, but with a less compelling matchup (Jacksonville). If you looking for a streaming option, I believe the best options will include Dallas (home vs. Chargers), Giants (home vs. Vikings), Kansas City (at Tennessee) and New Orleans (home vs. Jets).
Question 5
Maximum 5 RBs allowed on my roster. Cook, Kyren, Swift and Monangai are no-brainers. With playoffs clinched, am I better off with Gainwell or Ray Davis as my RB5?
MICHAEL HAMER (Springfield, PA)
It’s hammer time. With Gainwell, you’re getting a guy you can put on the field with some hope of nominal production. He runs for 20-25 yards most weeks, and he’s averaging almost 4 catches. Davis had that nice change-of-pace game at Pittsburgh, but he went back to hardly playing last week. His only value, I would think, would be as a possibility to play extensively in Week 18. If the Bills are locked in as a wild card that week, I could see them sending out Davis to work with the JV squad against the Jets.
Question 6
A few questions. First, Bam or Monty? They are ranked next to each other and I seem to pick the wrong one every week. Next, Flowers or Sutton? Flowers catches a lot of balls but not in the end zone. He is ranked higher than Sutton in my custom rankings but not by much. Finally, Nix or Stroud? They are ranked next to each other in my custom rankings but neither is jumping out at me to start. Again, thanks for your insight!
David Hogshire (Plymouth, MN)
I don’t worry too much about 50-50 calls. You’re going to be making a lot of them. You’re going to get about half of them right and half of them wrong. That’s the game we play (and with most of these decisions, they don’t wind up playing any role in the result of your game). You have to accept that, not letting the game drive you crazy. For Bam vs. Monty, it should be noted that Arizona passes a bunch to its running backs. He’s caught 3-4 passes in four straight games. So that’s worth a little something (but that’s already factored into his player rating, so we’re really just pushing the food around on our plate). Similarly with Flowers-Sutton, you trot Zay out there, knowing he’ll at least be getting his hands on the ball some. For the QBs, Nix is more of a factor as a runner, while Houston is starting to round into a playoff team, with the potential to get over the hump, putting up some points against a lesser opponent.
Question 7
It's nut-cutting time of yet another harrowing season. Good job as always, but now I'm looking for the Index think that only u provide. Across two teams we've got five of "those RB guys," those rooks/youngins with little or no track record who are emerging with the RB1 job in full by injury (Marks, Neal)...or have been recently offering a 1b/a split (Monagai, Corum, Vidal). How do you sort them out? ((Hubbard, Pollard and Charbonnet might also be on the list but they have bigger histories and ensconsed roles on their teams). Last lark: What would surprise you more... Pollard having a second straight burner against Seattle or Hubbard repeating his Week 13 re-theft of Dowdle's run?
Vin Kmetz (Danbury, CT)
Alvin Kamara didn’t practice at all on Wednesday. I don’t think he’s playing. It should be Devin Neal, and they ran a little more last week than they have been. He’s a starter-quality guy, in my opinion. He’s caught 3-plus passes in four of his last six games. Hubbard, I think, is back. He ran for 83 yards in his last game back, and he averaged over 5 yards per carry in his previous two. I think it can be debated whether Hubbard or Dowdle is better.
Question 8
Full point PPR where QB passing TDs are also 6 pts. Looking ahead I see Nee Orleans DST is available and have a great matchup next week vs Jets. Would assume they’ll be a top rated DST next week. I picked up Dart for this week so am leaning to dropping a QB. I have Dart, Brisset, and Nix. Assuming I’d run with Dart for this week? If so. Who would you drop based on the next 2 weeks between Brisset and Nix? I could also drop Emanuel Wilson but am playing it safe keeping him since I have Jacobs. Evans would be another drop target but depending on Lambs status I’m a little thin at WR (Lamb, Egbuka, Wandale)
Rich Wiegard (Frisco, TX)
Looking at the remaining schedule, I would think you’ll be using Nix in Week 16 against Jacksonville and Brissett in Week 17 against the Bengals. I think that puts Evans on the chopping block.
Question 9
Thanks to Fantasy Index, I'm in my tenth consecutive round of playoffs, so many thanks for the solid advice. Here's my question: Half point PPR, which of the following would you recommend as my Flex Player: Brian Thomas, Kenneth Gainwell, Rhamondre Stevenson, Darnell Mooney, Tre Tucker.
Eric Burgess (Scarborough, ME)
Mooney and Tucker wouldn’t be considerations at all. I don’t think they even belong on the list. With Thomas, I like that they seem to be figuring out how to iuse him. They’re getting him downfield more. But my stat projections suggest Stevenson is the guy to go with, running against Buffalo’s iffy run defense.